Utah's defense ranks 30th in the NBA, giving up 120.7 points per game. That spells trouble when facing a Pelicans team led by Zion Williamson, who is shooting 58.5% from the field. Trey Murphy III is equally hot at 47.6% from the floor. The Jazz offense ranks 22nd in efficiency at 113.1, creating a rare combo of bad-on-both-ends basketball. When Utah's defense can't stop you and their offense can't run efficiently, that's a mismatch New Orleans should exploit.

Lauri Markkanen is Utah's anchor, but recent signs suggest he is cooling off. Over his last 10 games, he is averaging 22.9 points, down 3.8 from his season average of 26.7. Keyonte George provides secondary scoring at 23.6 PPG recently, but no Utah player can slow down Williamson's finishing or Murphy's shooting tonight.

• New Orleans attacks Utah's worst-ranked defense early, letting Zion establish position and Trey Murphy fire from outside
• Utah responds with high-volume shooting and pace-of-play, but turnovers (16.6 per game) slow their rhythm
• Pelicans build a 10-12 point lead by halftime as their offensive execution outpaces Utah's sloppy ball-handling
• Jazz tighten the game in the third quarter with Markkanen isolation plays and George's outside shot, cutting it to 6-7 points
• New Orleans' superior defensive effort (27th ranked vs Utah's 30th) forces late-game turnovers and seals the win
• Final margin stays single digits, with Pelicans closing out via free throws rather than running away with it

The game script plays out predictably: New Orleans establishes Zion early, builds a lead, Utah chips back in the third quarter, and New Orleans closes with free throws. This is not a blowout. It is a controlled Pelicans win in a lower-scoring game than the market expects. The moneyline is your primary play, but the Under 239.5 is the sharper angle for bettors who want more value.

One caveat: both teams sit outside the playoff picture, so motivation could be an issue. The Jazz are just 1-4 at home in their last five games, so Utah's home court provides no safety net. Lean Pelicans, but do not get greedy on the spread. The money line gets the job done.