NBA Xmas Bets: Knicks Dominate, Mavs Bite Back

Knicks Cooking at Home: Fade Cleveland Without Mobley

Ho-ho-home court advantage is very real for the New York Knicks, and they look ready to wrap up a win over the Cleveland Cavaliers like a shiny Christmas gift. The spread sits at Knicks -5.5, and there’s not much optimism for a Cavs cover. Cleveland’s missing Evan Mobley, and without his rim protection and defensive length, their already spotty perimeter defense is looking extra suspect. That’s bad news against a Knicks team that ranks top five in three-point shooting.

The Knicks have been dominant at Madison Square Garden, and with Cleveland’s inconsistent form and defensive lapses, this feels like a game the Knicks can gradually take control of. Injuries for New York are worth monitoring, but most signs suggest their key players will suit up. The over also looks juicy thanks to Cleveland’s defensive struggles and the Knicks' offensive firepower.

For player props, Sam Merrill’s over 2.5 made threes is a tasty look. He’s one of the few bright spots on Cleveland’s roster right now and should get plenty of attempts. Also, keep an eye on Mikal Bridges, who could feast from deep if Cleveland continues to leave the arc wide open. And for a little holiday helper, Lonzo Ball’s over 3.5 assists is a sneaky good play as he continues to distribute effectively.

Thunder Bringing the Boom on Christmas

Oklahoma City is stepping into their first Christmas Day game as a young, hungry squad, and they’re ready to make an impression. They’re hosting the San Antonio Spurs and laying 9.5 points, which might seem steep, but the Thunder are built to handle this matchup. With multiple ball-handlers to counter San Antonio’s pressure, OKC is well-suited to exploit the Spurs’ defensive weaknesses.

This is also a classic bounce-back spot. OKC has a history of rebounding strong after rough road stretches, and playing on Christmas only adds fuel to the fire. While the total of 233.5 points is a bit of a coin flip, there’s a lean toward defense showing up and the under sneaking in.

If you’re hunting for player props, Isaiah Joe and Alex Caruso are both worth considering over their points totals. Joe’s shooting and Caruso’s all-around hustle could make them key contributors. Keep an eye on how Jalen Williams (aka “J-Dub”) is used too—he’s primed for a bigger role in this holiday showcase.

Mavericks vs. Warriors: A Dysfunctional Holiday Drama

Now here’s where things get spicy. The Warriors are favored by 8.5 at home against the surging Dallas Mavericks, and that line is looking a little too generous. Dallas has been playing their best basketball of the season, while Golden State is still trying to figure out what works—and who they can even trust on the floor. Steve Kerr’s rotation is a mystery wrapped in a riddle, and right now, only Steph Curry seems to have his full confidence.

This feels like a classic Warriors script: stumble early, let Steph carry them late, and sneak out a win. That makes Dallas +8.5 a strong play, especially considering they’ve been covering well as underdogs. If you want to get creative, a Warriors win by 1–10 points or even 1–5 might be the spicy prop that hits. Think of it as the classic Christmas movie ending—chaotic, dramatic, but somehow it all works out in the final act.

The total is set at 227.5, and the over is drawing a lot of love. The pace should be high, with Golden State’s ball movement matching up against Dallas’ wobbly perimeter defense. Dallas should also get to the line frequently, which helps the over even more. Anthony Davis is a big name to watch here, especially if you’re eyeing player props. His points and rebounds props are getting love, and a 30-and-13 type of performance isn’t out of the question.

For Golden State, it’s Steph or bust. If you’re betting on Warriors player props, Steph’s point total is the one to circle. He could start slow but explode late, especially if Dallas keeps switching and giving him the matchups he wants. As for other Warriors? Meh. Stick to the stars in this one.

Denver vs. Minnesota: Mile High Mayhem

Denver is a slight 2.5-point favorite at home against a tough Minnesota Timberwolves squad, and this one’s shaping up to be a gritty holiday battle. Minnesota tends to rise to the occasion against top teams, but their road form is shaky, and injuries could catch up to them here. Denver’s been solid at home, and while some bettors are hesitant to trust their coaching staff, the talent of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray should be enough to get the job done.

Totals-wise, 238.5 is a high number, and opinions are split. If you want to play it safe, consider team totals instead. Some are leaning toward Minnesota’s team total over, while others prefer Denver’s under, expecting a tight, defensive showdown. With so much offensive firepower on both sides, this one might come down to which defense can hold up longer—or who hits the last big shot.

Quick Hits and Props to Watch

Let’s spread some holiday cheer with a few more betting nuggets:

• Anthony Davis over 24.5 points feels like a free square until he tweaks an ankle. Proceed with cautious optimism.
• Lonzo Ball’s over 3.5 assists is still strong, especially against weak perimeter defenses.
• Sam Merrill over 2.5 threes is worth repeating. The man’s got a green light and no Mobley means more minutes and more looks.
• Luka Doncic over 3.5 made threes is a bet on his star power and usage rate. If he plays, he’s launching.
• Flagg and PJ Washington are intriguing for Dallas, especially if size becomes a factor against Golden State’s smaller lineups.

Takeaways

• Knicks all day: Fade the Cavs without Mobley, especially at MSG. Lay the -5.5 and smash the over.
• OKC’s Christmas debut: They’re motivated and favored big. Trust the Thunder to cover, but maybe lean under.
• Dallas is barking: Take the Mavericks +8.5 and consider a Warriors win margin between 1–10 points.
• Steph’s time to shine: Bet on Curry to hit his points prop late, but don’t trust anyone else in that rotation.
• Denver at home: Slight edge to the Nuggets, but don’t sleep on Minnesota’s team total over.

That’s your NBA betting breakdown for the holidays. Whether you’re cheering for covers, overs, or player props, may your bets be merry and your bankrolls bright. Happy holidays, punters!