Championship Bets: Stidham Wildcard, Rams-Seahawks Clash

Championship Weekend: Betting the Big Games

We’re down to four teams and two massive showdowns. The NFL Championship weekend is here, and if you're trying to place smart bets, this is where it gets spicy. The NFC features a heavyweight trilogy bout between the Rams and Seahawks, while the AFC throws us a curveball with Jared Stidham under center for the Broncos as they face the surging Patriots. Let’s break down what you need to know to bet smart and maybe even land a long shot winner.

Stidham Time in Denver: Risk or Reward?

Don’t let the name “backup” fool you , Jared Stidham might just be the wildcard this postseason needs. With Bo Nix out, Sean Payton turns to Stidham, a guy who’s been quietly solid when called upon. Payton’s track record with backups is elite. Remember Teddy Bridgewater’s 5-0 run in 2019? Yeah, Payton knows how to prep his guys.

Still, the Broncos offense will look different. The run game has been missing in action since J.K. Dobbins went down in Week 10. Without him, Denver ranks near the basement in rushing grade and explosive runs. But here’s the twist , Dobbins’ practice window is open. If he suits up, even for 10-12 carries, Denver could find rhythm and take pressure off Stidham. That makes Dobbins a sneaky prop play if active.

As for weapons, Marvin Mims is heating up, and Courtland Sutton remains the go-to guy in the red zone. Expect Payton to lean on Sutton and keep things diverse, but don’t be shocked if this game turns on whether Denver can finally run the ball.

Rams vs Seahawks: The Chess Match of the Weekend

Matthew Stafford versus the Seahawks defense is a battle of NFL brains. Stafford has owned the middle of the field all year, but Seattle’s D is no slouch, especially in the red zone. The strategy here will be about timing and tempo , can Stafford hit those in-breaking routes before the safeties pounce? Or will Mike Macdonald's defense bait him into deep shots over the top?

The Rams’ run game will be a key complementary piece. Kyren Williams needs to grind out yards after contact because Seattle’s front isn’t giving up much before it. Expect Sean McVay to start with some downhill man-blocking runs to set a tone, then pivot into the outside zone game that worked in earlier matchups. It’s not about flash , it’s about execution. If Williams can break a few tackles and keep Stafford in manageable downs, the Rams can control this game.

And don’t sleep on Terrance Ferguson at +600 to score. He had a 39% route participation rate last week compared to Tyler Higbee’s 17%. Ferguson is a classic boom-or-bust tight end with downfield targets , just the kind of guy who slips past the defense for a sneaky touchdown.

AFC Showdown: Patriots Lean on the Ground Game

New England’s game plan revolves around patience and precision. Drake May will face a tough Denver defense that thrives in man coverage, so expect a heavy dose of outside zone runs. The Patriots have been cooking with this scheme, especially when using Hunter Henry as a lead blocker from the slot or Jack Westover from the I-formation. Ramondre Stevenson is the engine here , if he can stay north-south and pick up tough yards, May won’t have to play hero ball.

Defensively, the Patriots will look to confuse Stidham with post-snap rotations and simulated pressures. That’s where this game could turn. If Stidham can’t adjust or is forced into obvious passing downs, it could be a long day for Denver. But if the Broncos can establish even a half-decent run game and keep things balanced, Stidham has the poise to make enough plays to keep it close.

For touchdown bets, Devante Adams at +125 makes sense , he’s been a beast inside the 10. JSN (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) at plus money is another solid pick. And if you’re feeling bold, a favorite touchdown scorer parlay of JSN (even money), Sutton (+280), and Kenneth Walker (-160) could net over 12-to-1 odds. Not bad for a three-leg shot at glory.

Game Picks and Long Shots

The Rams-Seahawks game looks like a coin flip on paper, but if Stafford is on and Kyren Williams gets rolling, the Rams might edge it out. On the other side, the Patriots have the better quarterback and a more consistent run game, which could be enough to squeak past a Stidham-led Broncos squad.

If you're chasing big paydays, consider Jared Stidham at 20-to-1 for Super Bowl MVP. It’s a long shot, sure, but quarterbacks win this award more often than not. If Denver pulls off the upset and keeps rolling, he’ll be front and center.

And for those looking for pure chaos, take a look at Drake May scoring two touchdowns or Jordan Whittington at 11-to-1 for his first receiving TD. These are wildcards, but if you're going to dream, dream big.

Takeaways

• Jared Stidham is a wild card, but Sean Payton’s history with backups makes him intriguing , and potentially valuable for MVP long shots.
• Watch for Dobbins news. If he plays, Denver’s run game could finally come alive, reshaping this matchup.
• Terrance Ferguson at +600 is a sneaky TD pick with increased usage and downfield potential.
• The Rams need Kyren Williams to rack up yards after contact , Seattle won’t give up much before it.
• Touchdown parlay: JSN, Sutton, Walker offers sweet odds at 12-to-1 for bettors looking for a thrill.
• Patriots' run game vs. Broncos' D could be the deciding factor in a low-scoring, grind-it-out AFC title game.