• The Ravens defense ranks in the 97th percentile in goal-line stuff rate, a major edge against a Packers offense that struggles in short-yardage.
• Green Bay leads the league in third-and-long conversions (38.4%), often keeping drives alive with chunk plays.
• Baltimore rarely uses no-huddle (2.9%), signaling a slower pace that could shorten the game.
• The Packers’ pass defense allows explosive plays at just a 5.4% rate, among the best in the league.
• Multiple injuries on Green Bay’s offensive line could leave Jordan Love vulnerable if he’s able to play.
• Baltimore’s pass rush doesn’t hit home often, just a 3.8% sack rate when generating pressure, one of the league’s worst.

• The total is set at 40.5, with heavy juice on the Under (-125), reflecting cold weather and backup QB expectations.
• Packers are -5.0 favorites (-114), but that line could shift if Jordan Love is ruled out.
• Tyler Huntley is +235 to score a touchdown, solid value for a QB who runs often in red-zone packages.
• Luke Musgrave’s receiving yards prop is just 24.5 (-123 Over), and he could benefit from short throws if Love is limited.
• Keaton Mitchell Over 20.5 rushing yards (-115) offers upside in a possible run-heavy script with Huntley starting.
• Jordan Love Under 228.5 passing yards (-120) looks sharp given injury uncertainty and protection concerns.

Baltimore’s defense thrives in short-yardage and red-zone spots, which could frustrate a Packers team that leans on explosive passes and third-down conversions. If Green Bay’s offensive line can’t hold up, this could turn into a field-position battle.

The betting market reflects the uncertainty. With a low total and a spread favoring Green Bay by 5, oddsmakers are baking in injuries on both sides. Keep an eye on final injury designations, especially at quarterback, as they’ll shift both team strategy and betting value.

Unless Love is fully cleared, the Ravens, with their physical defense and run game, may be the more reliable side to cover in a low-scoring fight.