• Ravens run game has a big on-paper edge.
  Cincinnati’s run defense has been a disaster, ranking 32nd in yards allowed and giving up about 156 rushing yards per game, along with over 1,000 yards after contact to running backs. With Trey Hendrickson and other front-seven pieces sidelined or banged up, Henry is set up to see heavy volume against a soft interior.

• Burrow, Chase, and a concentrated passing attack.
  The Bengals offense ranks near the top of the league in red-zone TD rate at 63.3% and in quick-strike scoring, even though their overall explosive pass rate is low. With Higgins out and tight ends thinned by injuries, Burrow is likely to lean on Chase and a smaller group of weapons, especially from shotgun where Cincinnati lines up about 64% of the time.

• Ravens offense moves the ball but stalls in the red zone.
  Baltimore has a strong big-play TD rate at 29.3% and an above-average explosive pass rate, and they convert third-and-long at an impressive 28.8% clip. The problem comes inside the 20, where their 41.9% red-zone TD rate is near the bottom of the league and their numbers suggest they settle for field goals more than they should, despite Justin Tucker’s excellent accuracy.

• Bengals defense struggles on third down and in the red zone.
  Cincinnati’s third-down stop rate of 46.1% ranks near the bottom of the league, and they allow TDs on 62.2% of opponents’ red-zone trips. That profile fits a “bend and break” defense, which can keep the Ravens on the field and give Henry, Andrews, and Baltimore’s playmakers multiple chances on long drives.

• Both defenses are vulnerable to explosive passes.
  The Ravens have tightened up on the scoreboard but still allow explosive passes on 8.8% of attempts, and they come in with a long list of injured corners and safeties. The Bengals allow explosive passes at a 10.0% clip and do not generate much pass rush, ranking low in sack rate and turnover generation. If Burrow and Lamar are both close to healthy, there are clear paths for downfield chunk plays on both sides.

• Injury clusters in the trenches may shape the game script.
  Cincinnati’s offensive line is banged up at guard and tackle, and Baltimore’s line has multiple starters listed Questionable. If either team is forced to lean on backups up front, that could shift their play calling toward quicker passes and even more run-heavy series, and it raises the risk of negative plays in obvious passing situations.

• Spread: Burrow’s return vs Ravens’ dominance in the rivalry.
  The spread sits around Ravens -8.5 (-118) with Bengals +8.5 (-120) on the other side. Baltimore has won four straight in the series, but the last two were decided by three or fewer points, and Burrow has thrown for 820 yards and 9 TDs in those games. If you believe he is close to full strength, taking more than a touchdown with Cincinnati is reasonable, but the cluster injuries on their defense make this a high-variance side either way.

• Total: 51.5 is a tug of war between recent unders and shootout history.
  The main total is 51.5, with the over at -127 and the under at -108. Recent form points to the under, as the Ravens have held six straight teams under 20, but the matchup history is loud, with the last two meetings landing above 70 total points and both offenses averaging close to 30 points per game this season. The heavy juice on the over means you need real confidence in a true shootout.

• Ravens team total vs their red-zone issues.
  Baltimore’s team total is 30.5 points, with the over at -137 and the under at -103. The matchup vs the league’s worst defense and Henry’s workload support the over, but the Ravens’ 41.9% red-zone TD rate and tendency to settle for field goals introduce real risk of landing in the high 20s, which makes laying that kind of juice tricky.

• Derrick Henry volume case at 92.5 rushing yards.
  Henry’s rushing line is 92.5 yards with the over at -122 and the under at -118. Cincinnati’s run defense has allowed 156 rushing yards per game and a ton of yards after contact, and Henry has posted at least 20 touches in six straight games. The number is high and the juice is thick, so this is a pure workload and matchup bet rather than a discount.

• Ja’Marr Chase ceiling game potential.
  Chase’s receiving line is 92.5 yards with the over at -119, and his anytime TD price is -150. With Higgins out, Chase has a chance at double-digit targets against a Ravens secondary that allows explosive passes on 8.8% of attempts and has several key corners Questionable. His history vs Baltimore (962 yards, 8 TDs in his career) supports the idea of a spike game, but you are paying a premium on both yards and TD.

• Mark Andrews as Lamar’s safety valve.
  Andrews sits at 40.5 receiving yards with the over at -120, and his anytime TD price is -110. He is three catches from the Ravens’ all-time receptions record and faces a Bengals defense that allows TDs on 62.2% of red-zone trips while ranking near the bottom on third-down stops. If Lamar is active and reasonably mobile, Andrews profiles as the most stable Ravens pass-catcher, but remember that any “Questionable” QB tag adds extra risk to overs.

On paper, this game looks like a classic strength-on-weakness script for the Ravens. Derrick Henry and the Baltimore offensive line get a dream matchup against a Bengals run defense that has been shredded all year and is missing pieces in the front seven. If the Ravens control the line of scrimmage and win on early downs, they can lean on long, physical drives that keep their defense fresh and Cincinnati on the sideline.

Cincinnati’s path is built around Joe Burrow’s return and the Ja’Marr Chase connection. The Bengals offense still owns top-tier numbers in red-zone touchdown rate and quick-strike scoring, and Chase has been a Ravens killer every time these teams meet. With Higgins out and the tight end room thin, Burrow may pepper Chase with targets, especially if Baltimore’s banged-up secondary cannot keep its full starting group on the field.

The biggest wild cards are health and finishing drives. Lamar Jackson’s leg issue, plus all the injury questions on both offensive lines, make this a fragile game to handicap early. Baltimore has enough firepower to blow past their team total if they finally convert in the red zone, but their season-long profile is that of a team that kicks too many field goals. Cincinnati, on the other hand, tends to finish drives with touchdowns but may struggle to get enough stops to give Burrow multiple chances.

In the end, the most likely script has Baltimore winning more often than not, driven by Henry’s workload and a defense that has rediscovered its form. But rivalry games, especially on Thanksgiving with Burrow back under center, rarely go exactly to plan. If Cincinnati can hit a couple of deep shots, protect Burrow just enough, and force the Ravens to keep settling for three instead of seven, this matchup has real upset and back-door cover potential, even if the Ravens escape with the standings result they need.