• Broncos pass rush vs Bengals protection is the headline. DEN generates sacks on 9.2% of snaps (89th percentile; sample 120) while CIN allows sacks on 9.6% (12th; sample 104).

• Denver’s run defense limits chunk plays at 1.3% explosive runs allowed (92nd; sample 80). Cincinnati’s run game sits near the bottom by explosive rate (percentile 5; sample 60, small but telling).

• Cincinnati’s defense has trouble on money downs, with a 53.7% third-down stop rate (17th; sample 41). That can extend Denver drives.

• Red-zone gap is wide: DEN defense allows TDs on only 25.0% of trips (95th; sample 12). CIN defense allows 64.3% (22nd; sample 14).

• Bengals still flash big-play punch: 33.3% of their big plays have gone for TDs (92nd; sample 9, small sample). One clean shot to Ja’Marr Chase can flip a quarter.

• Injuries add volatility. Burrow is on IR. Multiple CIN guards are IR/Q, which connects to that poor sack-rate allowed. For DEN, Evan Engram and Marvin Mims are Questionable, which can cap deep-pass and red-zone variety if they sit.

• Anchor spread: Broncos -7.0 (-122). Laying a full seven brings push risk; the juice is heavy but matches the matchup edge up front.

• Anchor total: 44.5 (Over -110, Under -123). The market leans Under with extra juice; defenses and pace point that way.

• Team totals: Broncos 26.5 (Over -118, Under -120). CIN’s red-zone TD allowed rate of 64.3% gives DEN finish upside, but note the tight juice both ways.

• Bengals team total 17.0 (Over -123, Under -116). The number bakes in the QB downgrade and pass-pro concerns.

• Jake Browning under 224.5 pass yards (-120). DEN’s pressure-to-sack and CIN’s protection make sustained volume fragile.

• Courtland Sutton Anytime TD (+102). Positive price attached to a red-zone edge against a defense that struggles to get stops.

Denver has the cleaner path. Their front wins at the line, their defense is stingy near the goal line, and they don’t take many sacks. That creates a steady script.

Cincinnati needs turnovers or a few deep shots to flip field position. The traits say those pops are possible but not likely on a snap-to-snap basis. The Bengals also carry protection and injury risk that can stall drives.

The pricing reflects that gap. Broncos sit a full touchdown favorite, and the total sits in the mid-40s with the Under juiced. That combination fits a game with more field position and fewer explosives.

As always, size bets to the juice and the variance. Several key players are Questionable, which can swing receiving usage and pace. Avoid overexposure to any single angle until inactives confirm the board.