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MIA
CIN
Game Preview
The Bengals head to Hard Rock Stadium to face the Dolphins on Sunday, Dec. 21 (1:00 PM ET). The big headline is Miami at quarterback. Reports point to Quinn Ewers making his first NFL start, with the market posting his props and pricing the Bengals as clear favorites.
If Ewers plays, Miami’s cleanest path is simple: run game, quick throws, and let speed do the work after the catch. The Dolphins’ 2025 profile screams “chunk runs.” They sit at 6.8% explosive run rate, best in the league. That puts pressure on a Cincinnati front that is banged up, with B.J. Hill questionable and Trey Hendrickson already on injured reserve.
On the other side, Cincinnati’s offense can be streaky, but it still wins key downs. The Bengals convert 44.9% on third down and are strong on third-and-long (30.9%), which matters against an aggressive Miami defense. Cincinnati also lives in shotgun, which can help the timing pass game if pressure shows up.
This game also has a big skill-player wrinkle. Tyreek Hill is on injured reserve, per the injury list, so Miami is likely leaning harder on Jaylen Waddle and the backs. That changes how Cincinnati can play coverage and where Miami’s explosive plays come from.
Current Season Form
MIA
AwayCIN
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | @ PIT | L 15-28 | L 3.0 | o42.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | @ NYJ | W 34-10 | W +-2.5 | o41.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | vs NO | W 21-17 | W +5.5 | u41.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | vs WAS | W 16-13 | W +2.5 | u47.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | vs BUF | W 30-13 | W +-8.5 | u50.5 |
| 2025-10-30 | vs BAL | L 6-28 | L -7.5 | u51.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | @ ATL | W 34-10 | W +7.0 | u44.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | @ CLE | L 6-31 | L 2.5 | o34.5 |
| 2025-10-12 | vs LAC | L 27-29 | L -3.5 | o45.5 |
| 2025-10-05 | @ CAR | L 24-27 | L -1.5 | o44.5 |
Key Insights
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Miami’s run game creates big chunks: 6.8% explosive run rate (100th percentile).
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Cincinnati’s defense has struggled to end drives: 48.1% third-down stop rate (3rd percentile).
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Cincinnati’s offense handles tough downs: 30.9% on 3rd-and-7+ (91st percentile).
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The Bengals live in shotgun: 65.7% shotgun rate (97th percentile), which can speed up the pass game.
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Miami’s defense is tough in short-yardage: 46.6% third-and-short stuff rate (81st percentile).
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Injuries matter up front: B.J. Hill (Q) and Joseph Ossai (Q) sit on top of a Bengals front already missing Hendrickson (IR).
Betting Insights
Bengals -4.0 (-119) is the clean spread anchor. Cincinnati is also -208 on the moneyline, so the market is pricing a Bengals edge even on the road.
Under 48.5 (-122) has the slight juice edge over Over 48.5 (-111). That fits a game where Miami may lean run-heavy with a new QB.
If you want a team-total angle, Miami is Under 21.0 points (-122), while Cincinnati is Over 26.5 points (-118).
Quinn Ewers Under 189.5 passing yards (-119) is a direct way to play a “first start” script, especially with Hill on IR.
De’Von Achane Over 81.5 rushing yards (-122) matches Miami’s explosive run profile and a Bengals front with key questionable tags.
Ja’Marr Chase anytime TD (-156) is pricey, but it lines up with Cincinnati’s ability to turn chunk gains into touchdowns.
Final Summary
This matchup starts with Miami’s quarterback situation. If Quinn Ewers is the guy, expect Miami to protect him early. That usually means more runs, more screens, and more “take the easy yards.”
Miami’s best on-field edge is its explosive rushing. The Dolphins have been the league’s most dangerous team on chunk runs, and Cincinnati’s injury list up front adds risk for the Bengals’ run fits. If the Dolphins keep the game on schedule, their offense can control tempo.
Cincinnati’s counter is a steadier passing operation on key downs. The Bengals convert third downs well, and they have been strong on third-and-long. That gives Joe Burrow more chances to stack drives, even if Miami wins some snaps with pressure.
From a betting view, the board is centered on Bengals -4 and 48.5. Just keep your head on the injury news. “Questionable” can swing usage and game plan, and this slate has a few big names that could shift the way the game is played.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 248 | #19 | 269 | #12 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 22.5 | #19 | 24.5 | #21 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 27 | #21 | 29 | #16 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 21 | #6 | 18 | #20 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 5 | #27 | 10 | #15 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 1 | #16 | 1 | #17 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 76 | #21 | 85 | #14 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 2 | #6 | 2 | #5 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 25 | #14 | 25 | #15 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 2444 | #15 | 2279 | #21 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 222 | #15 | 207 | #21 | |
| Passer Rating | 85.2 | #25 | 110 | #2 | |
| Passing Attempts | 411 | #3 | 317 | #5 | |
| Completions | 256 | #5 | 231 | #19 | |
| Completion Percentage | 62.3 | #23 | 72.9 | #32 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 125 | #12 | 117 | #13 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 59.2 | #8 | 52.5 | #6 | |
| Longest Pass | 64 | #14 | 55 | #23 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 4 | #4 | 3 | #20 | |
| Receiving Targets | 390 | #4 | 310 | #25 | |
| Receptions | 256 | #5 | 231 | #14 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 1178 | #18 | 1212 | #18 | 🏈 |
| YAC Average | 4.6 | #28 | 5.2 | #23 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 934 | #30 | 1569 | #29 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 84.9 | #30 | 143 | #4 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 214 | #32 | 317 | #24 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4.4 | #16 | 5 | #5 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 60 | #29 | 79 | #19 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 7 | #15 | 12 | #2 | |
| Long Rushing | 37 | #24 | 53 | #15 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 7 | #15 | 12 | #2 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 1 | #22 | 4 | #1 | |
Game Preview of Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins. Week 16 of 2025 NFL Season
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