• Miami’s run game creates big chunks: 6.8% explosive run rate (100th percentile).

• Cincinnati’s defense has struggled to end drives: 48.1% third-down stop rate (3rd percentile).

• Cincinnati’s offense handles tough downs: 30.9% on 3rd-and-7+ (91st percentile).

• The Bengals live in shotgun: 65.7% shotgun rate (97th percentile), which can speed up the pass game.

• Miami’s defense is tough in short-yardage: 46.6% third-and-short stuff rate (81st percentile).

• Injuries matter up front: B.J. Hill (Q) and Joseph Ossai (Q) sit on top of a Bengals front already missing Hendrickson (IR).

• Bengals -4.0 (-119) is the clean spread anchor. Cincinnati is also -208 on the moneyline, so the market is pricing a Bengals edge even on the road.

• Under 48.5 (-122) has the slight juice edge over Over 48.5 (-111). That fits a game where Miami may lean run-heavy with a new QB.

• If you want a team-total angle, Miami is Under 21.0 points (-122), while Cincinnati is Over 26.5 points (-118).

• Quinn Ewers Under 189.5 passing yards (-119) is a direct way to play a “first start” script, especially with Hill on IR.

• De’Von Achane Over 81.5 rushing yards (-122) matches Miami’s explosive run profile and a Bengals front with key questionable tags.

• Ja’Marr Chase anytime TD (-156) is pricey, but it lines up with Cincinnati’s ability to turn chunk gains into touchdowns.

This matchup starts with Miami’s quarterback situation. If Quinn Ewers is the guy, expect Miami to protect him early. That usually means more runs, more screens, and more “take the easy yards.”

Miami’s best on-field edge is its explosive rushing. The Dolphins have been the league’s most dangerous team on chunk runs, and Cincinnati’s injury list up front adds risk for the Bengals’ run fits. If the Dolphins keep the game on schedule, their offense can control tempo.

Cincinnati’s counter is a steadier passing operation on key downs. The Bengals convert third downs well, and they have been strong on third-and-long. That gives Joe Burrow more chances to stack drives, even if Miami wins some snaps with pressure.

From a betting view, the board is centered on Bengals -4 and 48.5. Just keep your head on the injury news. “Questionable” can swing usage and game plan, and this slate has a few big names that could shift the way the game is played.