• Cowboys stay on the field: Dallas converts 44.0 percent of its third downs and ranks near the top of the league in long drive efficiency at 90.0 percent. That points to extended possessions if they stay ahead of the chains.

• Raiders live on explosives: Las Vegas sits in the 100th percentile in scheme driven explosive plays and 80th percentile in explosive pass rate. Their offense is built to create chunk gains, even if it looks ugly drive to drive.

• Dallas defense is leaky in key spots: The Cowboys generate turnovers on only 1.0 percent of plays and rank near the bottom of the league in third down stop rate. Opponents are staying on the field and finishing drives too often.

• Trenches tilt toward Dallas, especially vs Raiders pass protection: The Cowboys allow sacks on just 4.5 percent of dropbacks, while the Raiders give them up at a 9.1 percent clip and have multiple linemen on IR or listed as Questionable. That combination is dangerous for a banged up Geno Smith.

• Red zone contrast could decide things: Dallas offense scores touchdowns on 61.8 percent of red zone trips, but its defense allows touchdowns on 64.9 percent of opponent red zone drives. The Raiders’ offense is the opposite, finishing only 47.8 percent of red zone trips with touchdowns. Which side fixes its red zone issues first may swing the game.

• Special teams edge leans Cowboys: Dallas field goal accuracy is an elite 94.4 percent, and their return game is usually a strength when KaVontae Turpin is healthy. The Raiders are adjusting to a new coordinator after repeated special teams breakdowns.

• Spread – Cowboys -3.5 (about -114): Dallas has a big edge in sustaining drives, with a 44.0 percent third down conversion rate and strong long drive numbers. The Raiders’ 9.1 percent sack rate allowed and cluster of offensive line injuries make it hard to trust them for four quarters. The risk is clear though: the Cowboys have been inconsistent on the road and their defense still gives up explosives.

• Total – Over 49.5 points (about -120): Both teams profile for volatility. The Raiders rank high in explosive pass and scheme driven big plays, and the Cowboys’ defense struggles to get off the field and to create turnovers. Dallas finishes well in the red zone on offense, while its defense allows touchdowns at a high rate. The juice on this number is real, so it is not a must play, but the matchup leans toward swings and scoring.

• Dak Prescott over 259.5 passing yards (about -119): Strong pass protection (4.5 percent sack rate allowed) and a high third down conversion rate suggest a pass heavy script, especially with the Raiders limiting explosive runs but not dominating in pass rush. Any play here should factor in the health of CeeDee Lamb and the reshuffled Dallas line.

• Tre Tucker over 46.5 receiving yards (about -120): Las Vegas leans into explosive passing, ranking 80th percentile in explosive pass rate and 100th percentile in scheme based explosives. Against a Cowboys defense that rarely takes the ball away and struggles on third down, Tucker’s downfield role gives him multiple paths to clear a modest yardage number, assuming Geno Smith and the line can hold up.

• CeeDee Lamb anytime touchdown (+114): The Cowboys score touchdowns on 61.8 percent of red zone trips and Lamb is their primary red zone receiver. If Dallas moves the ball as expected, he is well positioned for at least one end zone look. His Questionable tag for a leg sprain raises the risk, so this is a higher variance option.

• Total field goals over 3.5 (about -112): Dallas’ kicker has converted 94.4 percent of attempts, and the Raiders’ offense has a low long drive efficiency at 63.0 percent and a below average red zone TD rate. That mix points toward multiple drives stalling short of the goal line, creating chances for both kickers.

This Monday night matchup in Las Vegas brings together two teams in crisis for very different reasons. Dallas is playing with heavy hearts after the loss of Marshawn Kneeland and sits at 3-5-1 in what feels like a must win stretch. The Raiders are fighting through a 2-7 start, offensive inconsistency and yet another change on special teams.

On paper, the Cowboys have clearer paths to stability. Their offense extends drives, protects Dak Prescott and converts in the red zone. The defense has struggled in key moments, but the additions of Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson give them real upside against an offensive line that has been leaking pressure all season.

The Raiders still have a live puncher’s chance thanks to their explosive pass design and talented playmakers like Brock Bowers and Tre Tucker. If Geno Smith’s leg holds up and the line is not a total disaster, they can hit big plays against a Dallas defense that does not create many takeaways. Their problem is finishing drives and staying ahead of the chains for four quarters.

From a betting point of view, the market rightly makes Dallas a small road favorite and sets a total near 50, reflecting both offensive upside and defensive volatility on both sides. Any position here should build in the emotional layer for the Cowboys, the shaky health of key playmakers and the fact that one or two turnovers could flip the entire script. As always, treat any angle as just that – one angle in a high variance sport – and stick to a stake size that you are comfortable losing if the game breaks the other way.