• Denver’s pass rush is the headline: 9.9% sack rate generated (100th percentile), and they also convert pressure into sacks at an elite level.

• The Broncos are great at ending drives: 66.2% third-down stop rate (100th percentile).

• Denver also tightens up near the goal line: 35.7% red-zone TD rate allowed (97th percentile).

• Kansas City can hit explosives through the air (strong explosive pass rates), but converting that into points has been a problem (low big-play TD rate).

• The Chiefs play fast (high plays per minute), but they rarely go no-huddle. That can still create volume, but it does not guarantee efficiency.

• Injury shapes the matchup: Denver’s center is out, while Kansas City is down multiple top corners and has key defensive starters questionable (Nnadi, Karlaftis).

• Broncos -7.5 (-217): This is expensive juice, but it matches the mismatch at QB and Denver’s pass-rush edge.

• Under 39.5 (-156): The number is low for a reason. Denver’s red-zone defense plus KC’s uncertainty at QB points to field goals and stalled drives.

• Chiefs team total Under 10.5 (-145): If Denver forces long third downs and wins the red zone, Kansas City can land in the 6 to 10 point range.

• Chris Oladokun Under 149.5 passing yards (-120): Denver’s sack rate (9.9%) and third-down stop profile are a tough setup for a first start.

• Courtland Sutton Over 65.5 receiving yards (-123): KC’s corner group is battered, and Sutton is the best bet to soak up targets if Denver leans pass on key downs.

• RJ Harvey anytime TD (-115): If Denver plays from in front, they can feed the run game late. A short TD is the cleanest way to cash a rushing script.

This game sets up as a test of Denver’s defense more than anything else. The Broncos can rush the passer, they can get off the field, and they can squeeze the red zone. That is the exact profile you want against a rookie QB making a likely first start.

The biggest thing that can slow Denver is its own offensive line situation. With Luke Wattenberg out, interior pressure can create negative plays and kill drives. That is one reason the total is not higher even with Kansas City missing key corners.

From a betting view, you are paying a premium to back Denver. Broncos -7.5 (-217) is pricey, so it is not for everyone. If you want a cleaner angle, Under 39.5 (-156) and Chiefs team total Under 10.5 (-145) fit the way this game projects.

Props mostly flow from the same story. If Denver controls the line of scrimmage, Oladokun Under 149.5 passing (-120) makes sense. If KC’s corners cannot hold up, Sutton’s volume can get there, and RJ Harvey anytime TD (-115) fits a Broncos lead-and-run script.