• Broncos third down defense is elite.
  Denver stops opponents on 67.6 percent of third downs, the best rate in the league over 179 snaps. That directly attacks a Raiders offense that converts only 38.1 percent of third downs. Long-yardage spots are likely for Las Vegas.

• Raiders protection vs Broncos pass rush is a mismatch.
  Las Vegas allows sacks on 10.9 percent of dropbacks, and they are down multiple tackles and interior linemen. Denver generates sacks on 10.1 percent of opponent dropbacks and converts pressure into sacks at an elite rate. The Raiders passing game may struggle to get into rhythm.

• Run games may be bottled up on both sides.
  Denver and Las Vegas both grade as top tier against explosive runs, allowing just 1.6 percent and 1.9 percent explosive rushes, respectively. The Raiders offense also ranks near the bottom in explosive run rate at 1.9 percent, so chunk runs from Vegas are unlikely.

• Red-zone edge tilts to Denver.
  The Broncos allow touchdowns on only 38.2 percent of opponent red-zone trips. The Raiders offense scores touchdowns on just 48.3 percent of their own red-zone chances and is short-handed at running back. This supports more field goals or stalled drives for Vegas.

• Brock Bowers vs a banged-up Denver secondary is the Raiders’ best card.
  Bowers is Questionable but profiles as the top weapon in this passing game. Denver corner Pat Surtain II is also Questionable with a torso strain. If Bowers is active and Surtain is limited, Las Vegas may lean heavily on tight end targets and scheme-based explosive passes, where they rank strong at 3.8 percent scheme explosive rate.

• Pace and style favor a grind.
  Denver plays at a slightly above-average tempo and is comfortable sustaining long drives, with an 88.6 percent long-drive efficiency. The Raiders play slower and have poor long-drive efficiency at 66.7 percent. The combination points to Denver controlling time of possession while Las Vegas looks to steal a few drives with aggressiveness on fourth down.

• Spread: Broncos -7.5 at -109
  Denver’s defense owns top-tier marks in third down stops and sack rate, while Vegas struggles to block and score. The prior 10–7 game keeps the number under double digits, but the matchup still leans toward Denver covering if their offense can reach the mid 20s against a Raiders team total of 15.5.

• Total: Under 40.0 points at -105
  The market total around 40 is higher than the 17 combined points we saw in Week 10. Denver is allowing only 18 points per game, and Las Vegas scores around 14 with serious injuries on offense. Both defenses are strong against explosive runs, so long scoring plays may be rare. Variance mainly comes from short fields off turnovers or busted coverages.

• Raiders team total under 15.5 at -120
  This aligns with both season-long scoring and the matchup. Vegas is behind a battered offensive line, facing a pass rush that generates sacks on 10.1 percent of dropbacks. With multiple Questionable tags at QB, tight end and receiver, it is hard to project much more than two touchdowns without help from defense or special teams.

• Geno Smith under 197.5 passing yards at -119
  Between the leg injury, the poor sack rate allowed (10.9 percent) and Denver’s league-best third down stop rate, a low passing volume outcome is very live. Any in-game downgrade at quarterback would strongly favor this under, but that also adds volatility, so stakes should stay modest.

• RJ Harvey under 51.5 rushing yards at -122
  Denver is not built around a bell-cow run game, and Harvey managed only 35 rushing yards in the first meeting. The Raiders defense is strong at limiting explosive runs, allowing just 1.9 percent explosive rushes. This lean fits both scheme and stats, though the juice is fairly heavy.

• Brock Bowers over 57.5 receiving yards at -119 (if active)
  When healthy, Bowers is the key target in this offense and should see heavy volume if the Raiders are chasing the game. Their scheme explosive rate in the pass game sits at 3.8 percent, which pairs with his ability after the catch. His Questionable tag makes this a higher risk play, and it should only be considered if late reports suggest he will play near full usage.

Denver and Las Vegas enter this Week 14 matchup heading in opposite directions. The Broncos have turned into a defense-first contender that wins on third down, in the red zone and at the line of scrimmage. The Raiders are leaning on a rookie tight end and a banged-up roster while trying to stop a long losing streak and manage their draft position. That gap in stability is the core of this handicap.

On the field, the Broncos carry clear edges in pass rush and situational defense. Their ability to create sacks against an offensive line missing both starting tackles is a problem for any Raiders quarterback, especially one playing through a leg injury. With both defenses ranking well against explosive runs, the game likely flows through the air and through chain-moving throws rather than big plays on the ground. That tends to cap scoring and favors the more efficient, better protected passing game.

The Raiders still have a path to keep this interesting. It starts with Brock Bowers winning his matchup and breaking tackles after the catch, and it continues with coaching decisions. Las Vegas is one of the most aggressive teams on fourth down, which can extend drives and create a few high-leverage moments. If those calls hit and Denver’s thin front seven finally shows cracks, you can get a more volatile, higher scoring game than the first meeting.

Overall, the numbers and injuries point toward another Denver-controlled script. The spread near Broncos -7.5 and the total around 40 reflect respect for their defense and doubt about the Raiders offense. Bettors who like Denver or the Under should still account for late injury news on Pat Surtain II and Brock Bowers, along with any quarterback updates, since those are the levers most likely to swing both the side and the total before kickoff.