• The Rams create big plays downfield. Their Deep Pass Expl is 7.6% (100th percentile), so they will test Detroit’s corners early.

• Detroit’s defense has struggled to prevent explosive passes. The Lions allow explosive passes at 8.4% (11th percentile), and they have multiple DB injuries.

• The Lions can answer with chunk gains. Detroit’s Explosive Pass Rate is 8.8% (84th percentile), so they are not built to dink and dunk.

• Detroit’s run defense can still keep this game from turning into a track meet. They allow explosive runs at just 1.7% (94th percentile).

• Third-and-short defense is a real strength for Detroit. Their Third And Short Stuff rate is 56.1% (97th percentile), which can force field-goal tries.

• Offensive line health matters for Detroit. Taylor Decker is questionable, and that can swing both the run game and pass protection.

• Rams -6.0 (-116) is priced like the Rams can win by margin at home. Detroit can still cover if it wins early downs and avoids busted coverages late.

• Total 55.5 (Over -110, Under -120) is huge. That means you need touchdowns, not just yards. One or two empty red-zone trips can kill the Over.

• Rams moneyline -278 is the “safe” side, but you pay for it. If you like the Rams, the spread often gives a better payout with more risk.

• Rams team total Over 30.5 (-118) fits the matchup: LAR’s explosive passing (7.6%, 100th percentile) meets Detroit’s explosive-pass issues (8.4% allowed, 11th percentile).

• Lions team total Over 24.0 (-116) is playable if Detroit’s pass game hits at its usual chunk rate (8.8% explosive pass rate, 84th percentile).

• Puka Nacua Over 102.5 (-118) ties directly to the “explosives” angle. Detroit has shown it can give up big gains through the air.

This game has shootout ingredients, and the total tells you the same thing. The Rams can stretch the field, and Detroit has not been great at stopping explosive passes. That is the clearest path to a big Stafford day.

Detroit’s best counter is balance. If the Lions run enough to stay ahead of the sticks, they can keep Goff clean and keep their defense off the field. Their run defense is also strong at limiting explosive runs, which can make the Rams work for every drive.

Injuries shape the ceiling. Detroit’s secondary issues matter against a deep-ball team. Decker’s status matters for everything Detroit wants to do on offense. For the Rams, Davante Adams is a key “if active” piece.

If you bet this one, respect the variance. Big totals swing on turnovers and red-zone results. Spreads around six points can swing on one late score, too.