• Turnover battle leans toward Jacksonville’s defense. The Jaguars generate turnovers on 2.4% of opponent plays, which ranks near the top of the league, while the Titans defense sits near the bottom in that same metric. Lawrence’s risk-taking style adds variance, but structurally JAX should be better at stealing possessions.

• Titans pass protection is a pressure point. Tennessee allows sacks on 9.3% of dropbacks, one of the worst marks in the league. Even though Jacksonville’s season-long sack rate looks below average, the pass rush has surged with 13 sacks in its last four games and Josh Hines-Allen in form.

• Short-yardage and goal-line situations favor the Jaguars. Jacksonville stops opponents at the goal line on 72.7% of chances, the top mark in the NFL. They also stuff third-and-short at a strong 40.7% rate. That matters against a Titans offense that already struggles, converting only 31.8% of third downs overall.

• Cam Ward’s growth meets a vulnerable Jags pass defense. Ward has gone three straight games without an interception and is playing faster within the offense. He now faces a Jaguars defense that has allowed the third-most passing touchdowns this season, with multiple cornerbacks carrying Questionable tags.

• Chimere Dike is the Titans’ X-factor. The rookie wideout and returner leads the league in all-purpose yards and has already scored on offense and special teams. Jacksonville’s coverage units will be stressed to contain him, especially with safeties and corners on the injury report.

• Injuries in the trenches could tilt the game. Both teams list starting offensive linemen as Questionable, and Tennessee has key defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons on the report as well. With the Titans’ sack rate generated sitting at 8.5% of opponent dropbacks, whoever gets healthier up front by Sunday may control tempo.

• Spread: Jaguars -6.5 (-109) vs Titans +6.5 (-127)
  Jacksonville has the clear record edge and a defense that forces turnovers at a top-tier rate, while Tennessee is 0-6 at home but 5-6 against the spread and has covered three straight. Laying 6.5 means you are betting JAX can turn that takeaway edge and goal-line defense into a one-score-plus win, but the Titans’ recent competitiveness and the expensive price on the dog (+6.5 at -127) both underline the risk.

• Total: 41.5 (Over -118, Under -115)
  Titans games skew to the Over (7-4), thanks to a mix of defensive lapses and late scoring. The Jaguars bring high-variance offense with Lawrence’s boom-or-bust profile and a defense that can create short fields. At 41.5 with both sides juiced, this total sits in a middling zone where one or two big turnovers could decide the outcome for Over or Under backers.

• Trevor Lawrence over 226.5 passing yards (-119)
  Lawrence just threw for 256 yards on only 30 attempts and has the green light to stay aggressive. Tennessee’s defense almost never takes the ball away, with a turnover rate of just 0.8% of plays, so the main concern here is pressure and game script. If Jacksonville jumps ahead, some volume could shift to the run.

• Cam Ward over 203.5 passing yards (-120)
  Ward has climbed past the 2,200-yard mark on the season and just logged 256 yards on 42 attempts. As a home underdog, Tennessee is likely to throw in catch-up mode. Jacksonville’s defense allows plenty of passing touchdowns even while creating turnovers, so this is a volume-friendly spot, but Ward’s Questionable tag and his shaky offensive line make it a volatile play.

• Cam Ward over 10.5 rushing yards (-122)
  The rookie just scored his first rushing touchdown and tends to move when the pocket breaks down. With the Titans allowing sacks on 9.3% of dropbacks and the Jaguars’ pass rush trending up, scramble lanes should open. You are paying notable juice here, and his leg injury adds some risk if the staff asks him to slide more.

• Chimere Dike over 35.5 receiving yards (-118)
  Dike has become Tennessee’s most dynamic weapon, leading the league in all-purpose yards and earning steady targets on offense. If the Jaguars get a lead and force more dropbacks, 36 yards is a reachable number on short and intermediate routes. As with any receiver in a low-efficiency passing offense, game plan changes can sink the play even if the talent is there.

• Jakobi Meyers over 41.5 receiving yards (-116)
  With several Jacksonville wideouts listed as Questionable, Meyers projects as a stable option underneath against a Titans defense built around pressure. He has a route tree that fits quick-game concepts, which Lawrence may lean on if the pass rush heats up. The key risk is if the Jags control the game on the ground and lower the overall pass volume.

This Week 13 matchup sets up as a contrast between a playoff hopeful and a rebuilding team trying to find small wins. The Jaguars have more to play for in the AFC South race and have the better overall roster on paper. Their defense excels in key spots, especially near the goal line and on third-and-short, and their turnover rate has carried them through some messy offensive outings.

The Titans, though, are not rolling over. Cam Ward’s growth has given their passing game a little life, and Chimere Dike can flip field position in a single touch. Tennessee has not won at home but has rewarded backers lately by staying within the number. If Ward keeps protecting the ball and the offensive line holds up just enough, they can again hang around as sizable underdogs.

Injuries and offensive line play will likely decide whether Jacksonville pulls away or sweats in the fourth quarter. A healthier Brian Thomas Jr. and a functional Jaguars line would tilt things toward Lawrence carving up a thin Titans secondary. If instead Jeffery Simmons and the Titans front dominate in the trenches while Ward’s mobility is intact, this could look more like another one-score grinder.

For bettors, this game offers a clear favorite but also plenty of variance. Lawrence’s turnover streaks, Tennessee’s home struggles, and the long injury lists on both sides all push outcomes toward a wide range. Building positions around the known edges, like Jacksonville’s takeaway rate and Tennessee’s protection problems, while respecting that volatility, is the smart way to approach Jaguars at Titans.