• Kansas City runs a fast offense: 112.0% plays per minute (98th percentile).

• The Chiefs lean on shotgun more than anyone: 67.3% shotgun rate (100th percentile).

• Tennessee’s pass rush is a real lever: 7.6% sack rate generated (86th percentile).

• KC has still created chunk throws: 5.9% deep explosive pass rate (88th percentile).

• The Titans’ offense has struggled to sustain drives: 31.7% third-down conversion (3rd percentile).

• Injuries can shift the middle of the field: Chris Jones and Derrick Nnadi are questionable for KC, while Amani Hooker, Jalyn Armour-Davis, and Gunnar Helm are questionable for TEN.

• Chiefs -5.5 is +116. That is a bigger number than a standard field-goal spread, and it comes with plus money.

• Total 37.5: Over -115, Under -119. With a number this low, one short-field score can flip the script fast.

• Moneyline check: Chiefs -182 vs Titans +130. If you think turnovers decide it, the dog moneyline gives you more payoff than taking juiced points.

• Minshew UNDER 221.5 passing yards (-120): Tennessee’s sack rate (7.6%) can kill drives, and the game total points to fewer clean possessions.

• Kelce OVER 45.5 receiving yards (-118): KC’s shotgun-heavy attack and strong third-down conversion (45.1%) create steady target chances.

• Pollard anytime TD (+140): if KC’s interior sits or is limited, Tennessee’s best TD path is still a run near the goal line.

This matchup starts with the quarterbacks. Mahomes is out, and the Titans are also playing without Levis. That usually means simpler reads, more runs, and more punts.

Kansas City can still play fast and spread you out. They rank at the top of the league in shotgun rate and pace. The question is whether that speed turns into points, or just more snaps that end in field goals.

Tennessee’s best swing factor is pressure. The Titans have produced sacks at a high rate, and the Chiefs have key line and skill players listed questionable. On the other side, the Titans’ own injury list in the secondary and at tight end matters, too.

From a betting angle, treat this like a late-season volatility game. Watch the inactives, especially in the trenches. If you play it, keep it small, and be ready for line movement close to kickoff.