• Chargers win the down-to-down battle

  • Los Angeles ranks in the top tier in third down offence, converting 47.6% of its chances, and also sits near the top of the league in third down stop rate on defence at 65.8%. Jacksonville’s offence is down at 36.1% on third downs, and its defence ranks low for getting off the field.

• Pass rush advantage leans to Los Angeles

  • Chargers defenders generate sacks on 8.6% of dropbacks, a strong rate across more than 300 rush snaps. The Jaguars offence allows sacks on 7.3% of its own dropbacks and just gave up six sacks in a single game, so protection for Lawrence is a real concern.

• Chargers run game has explosive upside

  • With Kimani Vidal stepping into a featured role, Los Angeles brings a rushing attack that creates explosive gains on 6.8% of carries, a top five profile. Jacksonville’s run offence, by contrast, generates explosive gains on only 2.8% of attempts, which limits its ability to flip the field on the ground.

• Jaguars defence is tough at the goal line

  • Jacksonville leads the league in goal line stuff rate at 71.4%, and often forces opponents to settle for field goals. That matches up with a Chargers offence that has been below average in turning red zone trips into touchdowns, scoring on only 50.0% of those chances.

• Turnovers could be Jacksonville’s lifeline

  • The Jaguars defence ranks near the very top in turnover generation rate at 3.2% of opponent plays. If that unit can steal extra possessions from Herbert, it can cover for some of the protection and third down issues on both sides of the ball.

• Injuries on both offensive lines will shape the plan

  • Both teams list multiple starting linemen as questionable or on injured reserve. That can push play callers toward quicker throws, more shotgun snaps and designed quarterback movement to manage pressure and keep drives alive.

• Spread: Chargers -3.5 (+116) vs Jaguars +3.5 (-130)

  • The market makes Los Angeles a short road favourite but offers plus money on the -3.5 side while charging a heavy price on Jacksonville +3.5. That lines up with the Chargers edge in third down efficiency on both sides of the ball, but the juice on the Jags side shows respect for home field and possible turnover swings.

• Total: 44.5 (Over -108, Under -120)

  • A mid range total sets expectations for some scoring but not a pure shootout. Strong third down numbers for the Chargers defence, plus Jacksonville’s recent struggles to protect Lawrence, support why the under is slightly more expensive here.

• Team totals: Chargers 23.0, Jaguars 20.0

  • Los Angeles is priced to score slightly more than three touchdowns, with the over 23.0 at -123 and the under at -115. That reflects respect for Herbert and a fast paced offence that ranks in the top percentile for plays per minute, even with red zone finishing still a work in progress.

  • Jacksonville’s team total sits at 20.0 with the over at -127 and under at -112, signalling modest expectations for a unit coming off a one yard fourth quarter and facing a defence near the top of the league in third down stops.

• Kimani Vidal rushing yardage: 63.5 (Over -118, Under -122)

  • Vidal has seen a heavy workload with other Chargers backs on injured reserve and runs in a scheme that produces explosive gains on 6.8% of carries. The line in the mid 60s prices in volume but still leaves room if the Chargers lean on the ground game to protect their offensive line.

• Justin Herbert rushing yardage: 18.5 (Over -125, Under -114)

  • Herbert’s over is juiced to -125, showing the market’s respect for his scrambling and designed runs after he has already piled up league leading rushing production among quarterbacks. Given Jacksonville’s low pressure to sack conversion rate, some of those pressures can turn into chunk runs rather than drive killers.

• Trevor Lawrence passing yardage: 212.5 (Over -118, Under -120)

  • The line is tight around the low 200s, with a small lean in price to the under at -120. That seems tied to a banged up offensive line, a Chargers pass rush that converts pressure into sacks at an above average rate, and the risk that Jacksonville shifts toward shorter, safer throws after last week’s collapse.

Remember that prices labelled with a minus sign, like -120, mean you have to risk more than you can win. That extra cost is the juice the book charges, and it matters over time.

This matchup sets up as a test of how real the Chargers surge is and how much fight the Jaguars have left in them. Los Angeles has handled business over the last three weeks with a defence that is getting off the field and an offence that keeps drives alive on third down. Herbert’s play under constant pressure has been impressive, and his legs have become an important part of the attack.

For Jacksonville, this is about response and resilience. The collapse against Houston did not just cost them a game. It raised questions about pass protection, late game play calling and confidence. The Jaguars still have talent at the skill spots and a defence that can steal possessions with turnovers and stiffen near the goal line. But the offensive line injuries and recent form put a lot on Lawrence to manage the rush and avoid mistakes.

On paper, the Chargers hold the more stable edges in third down performance and pass rush. The Jaguars counter with a strong turnover profile and a defence that can force field goals instead of touchdowns. If Jacksonville can protect better than it did a week ago and take advantage of the Chargers injuries on defence, this can turn into a tight, high leverage game late.

As always, any bet on this matchup carries risk. Injuries, turnovers and coaching decisions can swing outcomes in either direction. Set a budget you are comfortable with, shop lines where possible, and treat any wagers on Chargers at Jaguars as entertainment, not a sure thing.