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NE
LAC
Game Preview
The Chargers head to Foxborough for a playoff night game at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, January 11 (8:00 p.m. ET). The headline is easy: Drake Maye versus Justin Herbert. One QB is chasing a statement postseason run. The other is chasing his first playoff win.
The matchup may get decided up front. The Chargers have a major protection red flag: they allowed sacks on 9.8% of dropbacks this season, a bottom-tier mark. That risk looks even bigger with multiple left tackles on injured reserve and another listed questionable. If Herbert spends the night under heat, the Chargers may need to win with quick throws and QB movement.
When the Patriots have the ball, they can hit you fast. New England’s passing game produced explosive gains (15 plus yards) at a 9.9% rate, one of the best rates in the league. The tension is that the Chargers’ defense has also shown an ability to limit explosive passes, so this can turn into a long-drive game where each third down matters.
The Chargers’ best path is balance. Their run game has been a big-play unit, with an explosive run rate of 5.5% (10 plus yards) that sits near the top of the league. But their lead back, Omarion Hampton, is listed questionable. If he is limited, it puts even more on Herbert to create outside structure.
Current Season Form
NE
AwayLAC
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | vs MIA | W 38-10 | W +14.0 | o44.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | @ NYJ | W 42-10 | W +-12.5 | o42.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | @ BAL | W 28-24 | W +3.5 | o48.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BUF | L 31-35 | L -2.5 | o49.5 |
| 2025-12-01 | vs NYG | W 33-15 | W +7.0 | o46.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CIN | W 26-20 | W +-7.5 | u50.5 |
| 2025-11-13 | vs NYJ | W 27-14 | W +12.5 | u43.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | @ TB | W 28-23 | W +2.5 | o48.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | vs ATL | W 24-23 | W +5.5 | o45.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CLE | W 32-13 | W +7.0 | o40.5 |
Key Insights
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New England’s offense lives on chunk throws: 9.9% explosive pass rate (near elite by league ranking).
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The Chargers can answer with explosives on the ground: 5.5% explosive run rate (near elite).
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Chargers protection is the swing point: 9.8% sack rate allowed is a major problem in any playoff setting.
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Both offenses stay on the field on third down: LAC 48.0% conversion rate and NE 49.5% are both top-tier.
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Watch the Chargers’ secondary health: multiple corners are on IR, and Elijah Molden is questionable. That matters against a deep-shot Patriots pass game (NE deep pass explosive rate 7.3%).
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Watch the Patriots’ interior defensive line health: Khyiris Tonga is out, and several DTs are already on IR. That can show up most on early downs and short-yardage runs.
Betting Insights
Patriots -3.5 (-120) is the key spread. That price has some juice, meaning you pay a little extra. You need to win a bit more than 54% of the time to break even at -120.
The total is sitting in the mid-40s. Under 45.5 (-115) fits if you expect pressure, longer drives, and red-zone stalls. The Chargers’ red-zone TD rate is 46.3% (low by league rank), which can turn touchdowns into field goals.
If you want a safer New England angle, the Patriots moneyline (-213) is the simplest bet. But it is expensive. You need them to win roughly 68% of the time to justify that price.
If you are building a Chargers upset case, it usually starts with one thing: takeaways and short fields. LAC’s defense posted a 2.3% turnover generation rate (high by league rank), which is the kind of trait that keeps underdogs alive.
Justin Herbert over 27.5 rushing yards (-122) matches the game script where protection breaks down and he has to create with his legs. LAC’s 9.8% sack rate allowed supports that scramble-heavy risk.
Injury-driven prop caution: Omarion Hampton is questionable, so any Hampton overs can swing hard on workload. If you play him at all, consider the lower-variance side like Under 46.5 rushing (-122), but only if reports suggest he is limited.
Final Summary
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 246 | #21 | 226 | #25 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 22.4 | #20 | 18.8 | #6 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 24 | #23 | 25 | #11 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 19 | #9 | 20 | #23 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 5 | #28 | 4 | #2 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 0 | #25 | 1 | #18 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 98 | #4 | 70 | #26 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 1 | #18 | 0 | #32 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 23 | #20 | 22 | #23 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 2547 | #12 | 2562 | #10 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 232 | #11 | 214 | #16 | |
| Passer Rating | 93.5 | #14 | 93.9 | #13 | |
| Passing Attempts | 388 | #9 | 396 | #25 | |
| Completions | 256 | #6 | 262 | #6 | 🏈 |
| Completion Percentage | 66 | #17 | 66.2 | #22 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 127 | #11 | 134 | #22 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 57.2 | #12 | 60.6 | #29 | |
| Longest Pass | 60 | #18 | 53 | #25 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 2 | #23 | 3 | #10 | |
| Receiving Targets | 378 | #7 | 377 | #8 | |
| Receptions | 256 | #6 | 262 | #27 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 1278 | #12 | 1228 | #20 | |
| YAC Average | 5.0 | #16 | 4.7 | #8 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 1273 | #18 | 1052 | #5 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 116 | #17 | 87.7 | #31 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 280 | #23 | 261 | #5 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4.5 | #12 | 4 | #21 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 77 | #14 | 66 | #10 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 8 | #9 | 3 | #29 | |
| Long Rushing | 54 | #15 | 31 | #31 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 8 | #9 | 3 | #29 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 0 | #32 | 0 | #31 | |
Game Preview of Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots. Wildcard Weekend of 2026 NFL Season
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