New England’s offense lives on chunk throws: 9.9% explosive pass rate (near elite by league ranking).

The Chargers can answer with explosives on the ground: 5.5% explosive run rate (near elite).

Chargers protection is the swing point: 9.8% sack rate allowed is a major problem in any playoff setting.

Both offenses stay on the field on third down: LAC 48.0% conversion rate and NE 49.5% are both top-tier.

Watch the Chargers’ secondary health: multiple corners are on IR, and Elijah Molden is questionable. That matters against a deep-shot Patriots pass game (NE deep pass explosive rate 7.3%).

Watch the Patriots’ interior defensive line health: Khyiris Tonga is out, and several DTs are already on IR. That can show up most on early downs and short-yardage runs.

Patriots -3.5 (-120) is the key spread. That price has some juice, meaning you pay a little extra. You need to win a bit more than 54% of the time to break even at -120.

The total is sitting in the mid-40s. Under 45.5 (-115) fits if you expect pressure, longer drives, and red-zone stalls. The Chargers’ red-zone TD rate is 46.3% (low by league rank), which can turn touchdowns into field goals.

If you want a safer New England angle, the Patriots moneyline (-213) is the simplest bet. But it is expensive. You need them to win roughly 68% of the time to justify that price.

If you are building a Chargers upset case, it usually starts with one thing: takeaways and short fields. LAC’s defense posted a 2.3% turnover generation rate (high by league rank), which is the kind of trait that keeps underdogs alive.

Justin Herbert over 27.5 rushing yards (-122) matches the game script where protection breaks down and he has to create with his legs. LAC’s 9.8% sack rate allowed supports that scramble-heavy risk.

Injury-driven prop caution: Omarion Hampton is questionable, so any Hampton overs can swing hard on workload. If you play him at all, consider the lower-variance side like Under 46.5 rushing (-122), but only if reports suggest he is limited.