• Houston’s defense wins on third down. The Texans rank elite in Third Down Stop Rate (65.5%, 97th percentile).

• Las Vegas struggles to build real drives. Raiders Long Drive Efficiency sits at 67.5% (6th percentile).

• Houston plays faster than Las Vegas. Texans Plays Per Minute is 109.0% (81st percentile) vs Raiders 94.0% (6th percentile).

• The Raiders do not hit chunk runs. Their Explosive Run Rate is 1.7% (5th percentile).

• Both red-zone offenses have issues. Texans Red Zone TD Rate is 44.9% (9th percentile) and Raiders are 46.9% (14th percentile).

• Injuries could swing the passing matchups. Raiders DE Maxx Crosby is Questionable, and Texans CBs Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter are also Questionable.

• Texans -14.0 (-123): Houston’s third-down defense (Stop Rate 65.5%) is the type of edge that can create separation. Big spreads still carry backdoor risk late.

• Under 37.5 (-115): both red-zone TD rates sit near the bottom (HOU 44.9%, LV 46.9%), which can keep the score down even with Houston control.

• Raiders team total Under 10.0 (-109): Las Vegas is slow (Plays Per Minute 94.0%) and has trouble finishing drives. Ten points is a tight number, but the profile fits the under.

• Texans team total Over 26.5 (-122): if Houston sustains drives and keeps getting third-down wins, 27 points is in reach even without perfect red-zone work.

• C.J. Stroud Over 219.5 pass yards (-120): pace helps (Texans Plays Per Minute 109.0%). The risk is game script: if Houston leads big, they may lean run late.

• Brock Bowers Over 51.5 receiving yards (-118): if Houston’s top corners are limited, Bowers can pile up catches. The key risk is the Raiders QB situation.

Houston owns the cleaner matchup. The Texans get stops on third down, and the Raiders have not shown they can stack long drives. That is a bad combo for an underdog, especially on the road.

The injury list matters on both sides. If Maxx Crosby is limited, Houston should have a smoother pocket. If Houston’s top corners sit, Las Vegas has a better chance to move the ball through quick throws, even if the deep shots are still hard to find.

From a betting view, Texans -14.0 (-123) is the headline. It is a big number, so you have to respect late variance. Still, the matchup points to Houston controlling pace and field position.

If you want to align with the “Raiders can’t score” angle, Raiders Under 10.0 (-109) pairs naturally with Under 37.5 (-115). Just remember: one defensive or special teams score can flip a low total in a hurry.