• Chargers offense is built to stay on schedule.
  They convert 46.8% of their third downs (88th percentile) and have an 88.6% long drive efficiency, meaning they are very good at turning multi play drives into points. The Raiders defense is closer to average on third down stops, so long, methodical LA drives are a real threat.

• Raiders offensive traits explain their scoring collapse.
  Vegas ranks near the bottom in explosive run rate at 2.0% (6th percentile) and long drive efficiency at 64.7% (3rd percentile. Even when they move the ball, they struggle to finish drives, and their red zone touchdown rate of 44.4% is well below average.

• The Raiders defense is better than their record.
  They allow explosive runs on only 1.9% of rushes (91st percentile) and explosive passes on 6.1% of attempts (81st percentile. That fits a bend but do not break profile and could force the Chargers to string together short gains instead of living on deep shots.

• Chargers pass defense matches up well with Vegas.
  Los Angeles allows explosive passes on only 5.5% of attempts (88th percentile) and is strong in red zone defense. That lines up against a Raiders pass game that is already below average in explosive pass rate and deep shots and may be missing several receivers.

• Both offensive lines are beat up and could shape the game flow.
  The Raiders are without their starting left tackle and center, with multiple guards questionable, which ties into their 10.7% sack rate allowed and Geno Smith’s 41 sacks. The Chargers have lost two top tackles (Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt) and have several other linemen questionable, keeping Herbert in a high pressure environment.

• Special teams tilt toward the Chargers.
  Los Angeles has a 92.9% field goal accuracy (94th percentile) while the Raiders sit at 77.3% (16th percentile. In what profiles as a low scoring game, that kicking edge could matter on tight drives.

• Spread picture
  The market has the Chargers around -9.5 (-122) with the Raiders at +9.5 (-111). You are paying a premium to back a banged up favorite, but LA does have the rest edge and clear advantages on third down and in the red zone. Big spreads carry variance, especially if Herbert keeps taking hits behind a patchwork line.

• Total expectation
  The main total sits near 41, with the under about -120 and the over around -112. With the Raiders scoring 15.0 points per game and both defenses ranking well in explosive play prevention, the market is clearly leaning toward a slower, grindy script. Any belief that Greg Olson can wake up the Vegas offense would be a reason to lean toward the over, but you are fighting both form and a bit of juice.

• Geno Smith passing under
  Geno Smith’s passing line is 205.5 yards, with the under about -119. He is working behind one of the worst pass blocking units in football, with a 10.7% sack rate allowed and multiple linemen hurt, and he faces a Chargers defense that sits top five in total yards allowed and strong against the pass. A new playcaller adds some uncertainty, so this is still a variance heavy prop.

• Keenan Allen volume over a low number
  Keenan Allen’s receiving line is 40.5 yards, with both sides near -119. He is averaging just over 50 yards per game this season and remains Herbert’s most trusted target. In a matchup where the line is shaky, short and intermediate throws to Allen are a natural way to move the chains, although blowout script could limit late targets.

• Ashton Jeanty rushing workload
  Ashton Jeanty is lined at 54.5 rushing yards, with the over around -116. Los Angeles ranks in the 94th percentile in explosive run rate, and several other backs are on injured reserve, which helps Jeanty’s volume. The downside is a strong Raiders run defense that ranks 91st percentile in limiting explosive runs, so you are banking more on workload and game script than on an easy matchup.

• Touchdown upside for Jeanty
  Jeanty is also around +164 to score a touchdown at any time. With the Chargers favored by more than a touchdown and dealing with injuries at other skill spots, he is a good bet to handle many goal line chances. As always, touchdown props are high variance since any gadget play or QB sneak can steal a score.

This matchup sets up as a test of whether the Chargers can handle business in a game they are expected to win comfortably. They have advantages at quarterback, on third down, and in overall defensive efficiency, and they are coming off a bye after an embarrassing loss. On paper, that is the classic recipe for a bounce back spot at home.

For the Raiders, almost everything hinges on Greg Olson and the new look offense. The numbers say this has been one of the worst units in the league, with poor explosive rates, poor long drive efficiency, and major problems in pass protection. Olson’s history with the Raiders and experience around the league might unlock some quick game answers, but he is working with a battered line and a quarterback who is already under fire from fans and defenses.

The defensive side is closer than the records suggest. Las Vegas quietly grades well at limiting explosive runs and passes, while the Chargers have thrived in pass coverage and in the red zone. If the Raiders defense plays to those traits and the offense can be even a little more functional, they can at least make life uncomfortable for anyone laying a big number.

For bettors, the main themes are clear. If you build your card around this game, you are choosing how much you trust the Chargers to sustain long drives and protect Herbert, and how much faith you have in a brand new playcaller to fix a broken Raiders offense in one week. Layer in a crowded injury report on both sides, and it is a matchup where monitoring late news and respecting variance, especially on player props, is crucial before you fire.