• Both offenses are built around explosive runs
  Miami ranks at the very top of the league in explosive run rate at 6.8% of carries gaining 10 or more yards, and the Jets are right behind at 6.6%. That means both teams want to stay on schedule and hit chunk plays on the ground rather than relying on deep passing.

• Dolphins defense struggles against big runs
  The Dolphins allow explosive runs on 6.7% of opponent carries, a bottom-tier mark. If Breece Hall is healthy, New York’s run game has a clean path to create field-flipping plays, especially behind an offense already graded highly for explosive rushing.

• Jets passing game lacks big-play punch
  New York sits near the bottom of the league in explosive passing, with an explosive pass rate of 4.3% and deep pass explosiveness at just 2.1%. With Garrett Wilson and other pass catchers out or limited, the Jets offense is more likely to grind with the run and short passes than to suddenly become vertical.

• Miami’s offense is explosive but inconsistent on long drives
  The Dolphins rank in the 100th percentile for quick-strike drives, scoring quickly on 4.1% of possessions, but their long drive efficiency is just 73.0% (19th percentile). Coupled with a low red zone TD rate of 44.4%, this offense can hit home runs yet still stall once it gets inside the 20.

• Jets defense wins on third down but not with turnovers
  New York’s defense ranks high in third down stop rate at 61.3% (81st percentile), which can force Miami into field goals or punts. At the same time, their turnover generation rate is only 0.1% (3rd percentile), so they rarely flip the field with interceptions or forced fumbles.

• Secondary injuries could change how Miami attacks
  With Sauce Gardner and another starting corner out and several other defensive backs Questionable, the Jets’ coverage unit is far from full strength. Miami’s explosive pass rate is only 6.2% (27th percentile), but the Dolphins still boast a high big play touchdown rate of 25.0%, meaning the few downfield hits they get often turn into scores. If Waddle is active, this is a matchup they can still test.

• Side: slight lean to Dolphins -3 (-112)
  Miami pairs the league’s best explosive run profile (6.8% of carries as big gains) with a defense that has improved overall scoring results in recent weeks. The Jets still project as a bottom-tier passing team. Laying a field goal on the road at about -112 means you pay a bit of extra price, so this fits better as a small stake rather than a heavy position, especially with Tua Tagovailoa still listed as Questionable.

• Total: Under lean at 41.5 (-112)
  The game total sits around 41.5 with even pricing on both sides. Both teams are run-heavy and can produce explosive plays, but Miami’s red zone TD rate (44.4%) and the Jets’ limited downfield passing point to some drives ending in field goals. QB injuries on both sides add downside risk for scoring. You may want to see the final injury report before going in hard on the total.

• Game prop: Over 3.5 total field goals (-103)
  New York’s kicker has hit 95.7% of field goals (100th percentile), and the Jets often trade touchdowns for threes, with a red zone FG vs TD rate of 65.2%. Miami’s red zone TD issues add to that. Over 3.5 field goals at around -103 lines up with a script where both offenses move the ball but bog down near the goal line.

• Player prop: De'Von Achane over 78.5 rushing yards (-118)
  If Achane is a full go, his rushing line around 78.5 yards with -118 to the over matches Miami’s identity. The Dolphins lead the league in explosive run rate at 6.8%, and Achane is central to that. His Questionable tag makes this a volatile lean, not a must-bet, and any snap count would crush the over.

• Player prop: Breece Hall over 69.5 rushing yards (-118)
  Hall’s rushing line is about 69.5 yards at -118 on the over. Jets backs sit at 6.6% explosive runs (97th percentile), and they face a Dolphins defense that allows explosive runs on 6.7% of carries (3rd percentile). If Hall clears the leg issue and gets his normal workload, the matchup fits, but his Questionable status means you should price in the risk of limited touches.

• Player prop: Tua Tagovailoa under 211.5 passing yards (-119)
  Tua’s passing total is 211.5 yards, with -119 juice on either side. Without Tyreek Hill and with Jaylen Waddle banged up, Miami’s explosive_pass_rate (6.2%) already sits below average. Add in the Jets’ strong third down stop rate (61.3%) and a likely run-first plan, and the under makes sense. His leg injury adds more uncertainty, so any under position should still respect the risk of a weird game script.

This rematch at MetLife sets up as a classic December, ground-focused AFC East game. Miami brings the higher ceiling with an explosive rushing attack and the ability to score quickly, even if its long drives and red zone trips are far from efficient. The Jets lean on their own powerful run game and a defense that can get off the field on third down, but their passing game and banged-up receiving corps limit how many points they can realistically score.

From a betting angle, the current numbers reflect that balance. Miami sitting around -3 feels fair for a team with more offensive juice and real playoff stakes. A modest lean to the Dolphins and a slight tilt to the Under 41.5 both depend heavily on which quarterbacks and running backs actually suit up, so this is a matchup where watching injuries matters as much as watching film.

Props tell a similar story. De'Von Achane and Breece Hall both sit on top of elite explosive run profiles and face defenses that can give up chunk gains on the ground. If they are healthy, their rushing overs make sense on paper. At the same time, both backs carry Questionable tags, and Tua Tagovailoa does too, which means player props in this game carry higher than normal risk.

Overall, expect a physical game with plenty of runs, several field goal tries, and a few big plays deciding whether Miami completes the season sweep or the Jets grab a bit of revenge. The matchup edges mostly favor the Dolphins, but the injury report and the Jets’ home-field pride keep this from being a simple call. As always, size your bets with the volatility in mind.