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DAL
MIN
Game Preview
The Vikings visit the Cowboys in Week 15 on Monday, December 15, 2025 (1:00 PM ET) at AT&T Stadium. Dallas is favored at Cowboys -5.5 (-114), with Minnesota +5.5 (-109). The total sits at 48.5 (Under -122, Over -109).
This matchup is a classic clash of styles. Dallas wants to play fast and pile up snaps. Minnesota wants to win with defense, pressure, and tight coverage that keeps big plays off the board.
The biggest swing is protection. Minnesota’s defense creates sacks at a high rate, and it also converts pressure into sacks at an elite clip. If Dak Prescott has to speed up his reads, the Cowboys may lean more on shorter throws and field goals.
Injuries matter a lot here. Dallas has CeeDee Lamb (Questionable) and Jake Ferguson (Questionable), plus Tyler Guyton (Questionable) at left tackle. Minnesota has its own list, including Christian Darrisaw (Questionable) and T.J. Hockenson (Questionable). If either offense loses key pieces, the game can swing quickly toward the other side.
Current Season Form
DAL
AwayMIN
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-04 | @ DET | L 30-44 | L 3.5 | o55.5 |
| 2025-11-27 | vs KC | W 31-28 | L -3.5 | o53.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PHI | W 24-21 | P -3.0 | u47.5 |
| 2025-11-17 | @ LV | W 33-16 | W +-3.5 | o48.5 |
| 2025-11-03 | vs ARI | L 17-27 | L 3.5 | u53.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | @ DEN | L 24-44 | L 3.5 | o51.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | vs WAS | W 44-22 | W +1.5 | o54.5 |
| 2025-10-12 | @ CAR | L 27-30 | P -3.0 | o47.5 |
| 2025-10-05 | @ NYJ | W 37-22 | W +1.5 | o48.5 |
| 2025-09-28 | vs GB | L 40-40 | L -7.0 | o47.5 |
Key Insights
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Minnesota’s defense limits explosive passes: 4.7% Expl Pass Allowed (95th percentile).
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The Vikings get sacks and finish pressures: 8.1% sack rate generated (91st) and 8.1% pressure-to-sack conversion (91st).
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Dallas plays with pace: 112.0% plays per minute (95th percentile) and 8.5% no-huddle (73rd).
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The Cowboys move the chains well: 47.3% third-down conversion (88th percentile).
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Dallas’ defense struggles to get off the field: 51.5% third-down stop rate (9th percentile).
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Watch the trench injuries: Darrisaw (Questionable) for Minnesota and Guyton (Questionable) for Dallas can change the whole pressure story.
Betting Insights
Cowboys -5.5 (-114): Dallas’ pace edge (112.0% plays per minute) can stress a Vikings team that plays much slower (94.0%, 6th percentile).
Vikings +5.5 (-109): Minnesota’s pass defense profile (4.7% explosive passes allowed) gives them a path to hang around if they force Dallas into long drives.
Under 48.5 (-122): the Vikings can create negative plays with sacks (8.1% sack rate generated) and they protect the red zone (46.2% red-zone TD allowed, 91st percentile).
Over 48.5 (-109): Dallas runs more snaps than almost anyone (112.0% plays per minute), and extra possessions can beat a total even without constant deep shots.
Vikings moneyline +225: this is the “defense travels” bet, but it needs Minnesota’s injured core (especially LT and TE) to hold up.
Cowboys moneyline -263: heavy juice. It’s a safer stance if Lamb and Guyton trend toward playing, but don’t treat it like a lock.
Final Summary
Dallas has the cleaner pace-and-efficiency profile. The Cowboys run a lot of plays, convert third downs, and usually keep their offense on schedule. That is why they are laying -5.5.
Minnesota’s case is defense. The Vikings can shrink the passing game, avoid explosives, and create sacks without blitzing perfectly. That combo can flip a game with one or two drive-killing plays.
The key is who handles pressure better. If Dallas protects Prescott, the Cowboys can wear Minnesota down with volume. If Minnesota lands early sacks, Dallas may have to settle more often.
Keep an eye on the injury report all weekend. Lamb, Ferguson, Guyton, Darrisaw, Hockenson, and Aaron Jones all have real ripple effects on side, total, and props.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 224 | #25 | 314 | #3 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 20.4 | #25 | 28.5 | #31 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 22 | #28 | 37 | #30 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 13 | #26 | 24 | #31 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 8 | #20 | 13 | #26 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 1 | #11 | 0 | #10 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 82 | #13 | 86 | #13 | 🏈 |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 2 | #11 | 2 | #15 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 19 | #25 | 32 | #5 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 1982 | #28 | 2775 | #4 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 180 | #28 | 252 | #3 | |
| Passer Rating | 73.8 | #31 | 107 | #3 | |
| Passing Attempts | 337 | #24 | 379 | #23 | |
| Completions | 202 | #29 | 258 | #8 | |
| Completion Percentage | 59.9 | #28 | 68.1 | #26 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 103 | #26 | 136 | #24 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 55.7 | #17 | 55.1 | #14 | |
| Longest Pass | 81 | #3 | 65 | #13 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 1 | #31 | 3 | #9 | |
| Receiving Targets | 325 | #23 | 351 | #16 | |
| Receptions | 202 | #29 | 258 | #25 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 996 | #27 | 1396 | #28 | |
| YAC Average | 4.9 | #17 | 5.4 | #24 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 1127 | #25 | 1377 | #21 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 102 | #24 | 125 | #11 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 242 | #30 | 298 | #20 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4.7 | #9 | 4.6 | #9 | 🏈 |
| Rushing 1st downs | 61 | #28 | 93 | #30 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 4 | #24 | 9 | #7 | |
| Long Rushing | 31 | #27 | 40 | #25 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 4 | #24 | 9 | #7 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 2 | #9 | 1 | #13 | |
Game Preview of Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys. Week 15 of 2025 NFL Season
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