• Minnesota’s defense limits explosive passes: 4.7% Expl Pass Allowed (95th percentile).

• The Vikings get sacks and finish pressures: 8.1% sack rate generated (91st) and 8.1% pressure-to-sack conversion (91st).

• Dallas plays with pace: 112.0% plays per minute (95th percentile) and 8.5% no-huddle (73rd).

• The Cowboys move the chains well: 47.3% third-down conversion (88th percentile).

• Dallas’ defense struggles to get off the field: 51.5% third-down stop rate (9th percentile).

• Watch the trench injuries: Darrisaw (Questionable) for Minnesota and Guyton (Questionable) for Dallas can change the whole pressure story.

• Cowboys -5.5 (-114): Dallas’ pace edge (112.0% plays per minute) can stress a Vikings team that plays much slower (94.0%, 6th percentile).

• Vikings +5.5 (-109): Minnesota’s pass defense profile (4.7% explosive passes allowed) gives them a path to hang around if they force Dallas into long drives.

• Under 48.5 (-122): the Vikings can create negative plays with sacks (8.1% sack rate generated) and they protect the red zone (46.2% red-zone TD allowed, 91st percentile).

• Over 48.5 (-109): Dallas runs more snaps than almost anyone (112.0% plays per minute), and extra possessions can beat a total even without constant deep shots.

• Vikings moneyline +225: this is the “defense travels” bet, but it needs Minnesota’s injured core (especially LT and TE) to hold up.

• Cowboys moneyline -263: heavy juice. It’s a safer stance if Lamb and Guyton trend toward playing, but don’t treat it like a lock.

Dallas has the cleaner pace-and-efficiency profile. The Cowboys run a lot of plays, convert third downs, and usually keep their offense on schedule. That is why they are laying -5.5.

Minnesota’s case is defense. The Vikings can shrink the passing game, avoid explosives, and create sacks without blitzing perfectly. That combo can flip a game with one or two drive-killing plays.

The key is who handles pressure better. If Dallas protects Prescott, the Cowboys can wear Minnesota down with volume. If Minnesota lands early sacks, Dallas may have to settle more often.

Keep an eye on the injury report all weekend. Lamb, Ferguson, Guyton, Darrisaw, Hockenson, and Aaron Jones all have real ripple effects on side, total, and props.