• Minnesota’s defense turns pressure into sacks: Vikings pressure-to-sack conversion is 7.8% (91st percentile), which can end drives fast.

• New York plays fast by design: Giants plays per minute is 110.0% (89th percentile) and no-huddle tendency is 18.2% (94th percentile).

• Minnesota wants to slow it down: Vikings plays per minute is 94.0% (6th percentile), one of the slower profiles in the league.

• Big-run potential favors Minnesota: Vikings explosive run rate is 5.0% (88th percentile), and that can punish a defense that gives up chunk runs.

• Giants have a red-zone problem on defense: NYG red-zone TD rate allowed is 64.0% (6th percentile), so stops inside the 20 have been hard to find.

• Injuries could tilt both trenches: Minnesota’s questionable tackles/center and New York’s questionable DT (Nunez-Roches) create real variance in both run fits and pass protection.

• Vikings -3 (-111): Minnesota’s pass rush profile is strong (sack rate generated 7.8%, 91st percentile), and negative plays travel well.

• Over-under 43.5 (Over -119, Under -118): Giants tempo is elite (110.0% plays per minute, 89th percentile), but Vikings pace is slow (94.0%, 6th percentile). This total is basically a bet on which style wins.

• Aaron Jones over 53.5 rush yards (-120): MIN explosive run rate (5.0%, 88th percentile) lines up well versus NYG explosive run allowed (5.6%, 14th percentile).

• McCarthy under 184.5 pass yards (-119): If Minnesota’s line is banged up, a slower script fits their pace profile and can cap dropbacks.

• Hockenson over 30.5 receiving yards (-115): Pressure looks like the Giants’ best path, and tight ends often become the quick outlet when the pocket is noisy.

• Tracy under 46.5 rush yards (-123): NYG explosive run rate is 2.6% (12th percentile), and Minnesota is not a defense that usually gives up many chunk runs.

Minnesota’s cleanest path is simple: protect the ball, lean on the run, and make the Giants drive the field. The Vikings have signs of a defense that can create sacks and clamp down on explosives, which matters if New York is trying to play fast.

For the Giants, the game swings on disruption. If they can pressure a Vikings line that has multiple Questionable starters, they can force shorter throws and maybe steal possessions. But that gets tougher if Thibodeaux is limited, and it also gets tougher if the secondary cannot hold up.

Betting-wise, the number that matters most is health. If Minnesota’s tackles and center trend toward playing, Vikings -3 looks fair. If those linemen sit or are limited, the Giants become much more live, and the under becomes easier to see.

Props follow the same story. I lean to Minnesota’s run profile (Aaron Jones rushing) and the safety valves (Hockenson). On the Giants side, the rushing unders make sense if Minnesota’s front controls the line and keeps runs from turning into chunk plays.