• New England is a downfield passing team, with a 7.3% deep-pass explosive rate (97th percentile).

• The Patriots are hard to get off the field, converting 49.7% of third downs (95th percentile).

• Baltimore has home-run scoring ability, with a 26.3% big-play TD rate (97th percentile).

• The Ravens’ pass rush has been quieter than usual, with a 3.8% sack rate generated (6th percentile), so Maye may get time if his line holds up.

• New England’s defense has been leaky near the goal line, allowing red-zone TDs at 75.0%.

• Watch the injury list closely: NE’s top corners (Carlton Davis III, Marcus Jones) are questionable, and BAL’s key blockers (Ronnie Stanley, Tyler Linderbaum) are questionable. Those spots can swing explosive plays and drive success.

• Patriots +3.0 (-114): New England’s 49.7% third-down conversion rate (95th percentile) supports a “stay close” script.

• Moneyline sprinkle: Patriots +136: If you like the upset angle, you’re getting plus money on a team that can win with explosive passes.

• Total 48.5 (Over -112, Under -112): Both teams bring big-play pathways, led by BAL’s 26.3% big-play TD rate (97th percentile).

• Drake Maye OVER 238.5 passing yards (-119): The Patriots’ 7.3% deep-pass explosive rate (97th percentile) creates quick yardage swings.

• Lamar Jackson OVER 31.5 rushing yards (-119): Baltimore’s run game pops explosives (5.0%, 88th percentile), and Lamar’s legs add stress when coverage holds up.

• Derrick Henry anytime TD (-132): New England’s red-zone defense (TD allowed rate 75.0%) leaves room for a goal-line score, but note the juice.

This matchup sets up as strength-on-strength in the most important areas. New England wants to throw over the top and win on third down. Baltimore wants to hit explosives and turn them into touchdowns.

The injury report is the swing factor. If the Patriots are thin at corner, Baltimore’s passing game gets cleaner windows. If the Ravens are compromised on the offensive line, it can slow their whole operation and change how often they can take deep shots.

From a betting view, the market is sitting on key numbers. Patriots +3.0 (-114) keeps the door open for a close loss, and Patriots +136 is the riskier way to bet the same story. Just remember the juice on some options, and don’t over-stack one script.

If you want player angles, Maye’s 238.5 passing line fits New England’s explosive profile, and Lamar’s 31.5 rushing line fits Baltimore’s run stress. Henry’s anytime TD is pricey at -132, but the red-zone matchup explains why it’s shaded that way.