Please come back later to see the best odds for today's games here.
DET
PIT
Game Preview
The Steelers head to Detroit for a big Week 16 game on December 21, 2025 at Ford Field. Kickoff is listed at 4:25 PM ET. This one matters for seeding, and it feels like a playoff test.
Detroit’s offense can win fast. The Lions sit in the 84th percentile in Explosive Pass Rate (9.1%), so chunk throws are always on the table. That also fits Dan Campbell’s style. Detroit is aggressive, and the numbers back it up with a 66.7% fourth-down aggression rate (strong percentile, but on a small sample).
Pittsburgh’s path looks different. The Steelers play slow, and they like longer drives. Their Long Drive Efficiency is 89.2% (91st percentile), and they have been excellent in the red zone at 63.6% TDs (94th percentile). That matters because Detroit’s red-zone defense is a weak point at 60.4% TDs allowed.
The swing factor is health up front and on the edges. Pittsburgh’s offensive line has multiple injuries and key questionable tags, including C Zach Frazier. On the other side, Detroit has major injury questions in the secondary, including S Kerby Joseph (doubtful) and CB Amik Robertson (questionable). If those DBs can’t go, the Steelers may find a few big completions they usually don’t hit.
Current Season Form
DET
AwayPIT
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | @ LAR | L 34-41 | L 5.5 | o54.5 |
| 2025-12-04 | vs DAL | W 44-30 | W +3.5 | o55.5 |
| 2025-11-27 | vs GB | L 24-31 | L 2.5 | o48.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | vs NYG | W 34-27 | W +14.0 | o50.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | @ PHI | L 9-16 | L 2.5 | u46.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | @ WAS | W 44-22 | W +-8.5 | o49.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | vs MIN | L 24-27 | W +9.5 | o47.5 |
| 2025-10-20 | vs TB | W 24-9 | W +6.0 | u54.5 |
| 2025-10-12 | @ KC | L 17-30 | L 2.5 | u51.5 |
| 2025-10-05 | @ CIN | W 37-24 | W +-10.5 | o49.5 |
Key Insights
-
Detroit creates big pass plays: 9.1% explosive pass rate (84th percentile).
-
Pittsburgh’s offense is built for long drives: 89.2% long-drive efficiency (91st percentile).
-
The Steelers finish in close: 63.6% red-zone TD rate (94th percentile).
-
Detroit has struggled to get red-zone stops: 60.4% RZ TD allowed (17th percentile).
-
Lions run defense is stout versus big runs: 2.1% explosive runs allowed (94th percentile).
-
Injury watch can change the game plan fast: PIT’s C Zach Frazier (Q) and DET’s LT Taylor Decker (Q) are the two names that can flip protection.
Betting Insights
Steelers +7.0 (-111): Pittsburgh can shorten games with long drives (91st percentile long-drive efficiency). Fewer total possessions helps a dog hang around.
Under 52.0 (-108): Pittsburgh plays slow (plays-per-minute is in the 6th percentile), and both teams are strong on short-yardage defense (both top percentiles in third-and-short stops).
Lions team total over 28.5 (-127): Detroit scores efficiently in the red zone (63.2% TD rate, 91st percentile), and Pittsburgh has been leaky on explosive runs allowed (5.7%, 9th percentile).
Amon-Ra St. Brown over 86.5 receiving yards (-119): Detroit’s passing game lives on chunk plays (84th percentile explosive pass rate).
DK Metcalf anytime TD (+154): Detroit’s defense has allowed explosive passes at a high rate (9.0%, bottom percentile). One broken coverage can cash this.
Pat Freiermuth over 20.5 receiving yards (-123): Detroit’s red-zone defense has been soft (60.4% TDs allowed), and Freiermuth fits the kind of short-area targets that keep drives alive.
Final Summary
Detroit has the flashier profile here. The Lions can score quickly, and they stay aggressive on fourth down. That combination can snowball at home, even against a tough opponent.
Pittsburgh’s best case is a slower, grind-it-out game. The Steelers have been great at stacking first downs and finishing drives in the red zone. If they can protect the quarterback with a banged-up line, they can keep this close.
The injury list is the real landmine. If Pittsburgh is missing multiple interior linemen, the offense can stall. If Detroit is missing key defensive backs, the Steelers can finally find explosives that don’t show up in their season-long rates.
From a betting view, the cleanest angles are tied to pace and finishing. That points to Steelers +7.0 (-111) and Under 52.0 (-108) as the most “game-script” friendly looks, with props that match the same story.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 274 | #12 | 243 | #22 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 24.9 | #11 | 22.1 | #12 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 30 | #13 | 29 | #18 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 21 | #7 | 21 | #25 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 7 | #24 | 8 | #9 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 2 | #7 | 0 | #12 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 86 | #11 | 69 | #29 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 1 | #17 | 0 | #25 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 29 | #9 | 24 | #17 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 2146 | #23 | 2316 | #18 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 195 | #22 | 210 | #18 | |
| Passer Rating | 97.7 | #11 | 92.1 | #17 | |
| Passing Attempts | 338 | #23 | 350 | #14 | |
| Completions | 230 | #19 | 213 | #24 | |
| Completion Percentage | 68 | #9 | 60.9 | #5 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 101 | #27 | 119 | #16 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 52.1 | #26 | 57.5 | #21 | |
| Longest Pass | 80 | #4 | 64 | #15 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 3 | #14 | 2 | #21 | |
| Receiving Targets | 320 | #26 | 341 | #18 | |
| Receptions | 230 | #19 | 213 | #9 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 1539 | #3 | 940 | #2 | |
| YAC Average | 6.7 | #1 | 4.4 | #5 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 1068 | #27 | 1119 | #10 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 97.1 | #27 | 102 | #22 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 265 | #26 | 290 | #14 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4 | #24 | 3.9 | #27 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 71 | #22 | 61 | #7 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 4 | #26 | 3 | #26 | 🏈 |
| Long Rushing | 55 | #14 | 31 | #30 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 4 | #26 | 3 | #26 | 🏈 |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 0 | #25 | 2 | #11 | |
Game Preview of Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions. Week 16 of 2025 NFL Season
Frequently Asked Questions
