• Detroit creates big pass plays: 9.1% explosive pass rate (84th percentile).

• Pittsburgh’s offense is built for long drives: 89.2% long-drive efficiency (91st percentile).

• The Steelers finish in close: 63.6% red-zone TD rate (94th percentile).

• Detroit has struggled to get red-zone stops: 60.4% RZ TD allowed (17th percentile).

• Lions run defense is stout versus big runs: 2.1% explosive runs allowed (94th percentile).

• Injury watch can change the game plan fast: PIT’s C Zach Frazier (Q) and DET’s LT Taylor Decker (Q) are the two names that can flip protection.

• Steelers +7.0 (-111): Pittsburgh can shorten games with long drives (91st percentile long-drive efficiency). Fewer total possessions helps a dog hang around.

• Under 52.0 (-108): Pittsburgh plays slow (plays-per-minute is in the 6th percentile), and both teams are strong on short-yardage defense (both top percentiles in third-and-short stops).

• Lions team total over 28.5 (-127): Detroit scores efficiently in the red zone (63.2% TD rate, 91st percentile), and Pittsburgh has been leaky on explosive runs allowed (5.7%, 9th percentile).

• Amon-Ra St. Brown over 86.5 receiving yards (-119): Detroit’s passing game lives on chunk plays (84th percentile explosive pass rate).

• DK Metcalf anytime TD (+154): Detroit’s defense has allowed explosive passes at a high rate (9.0%, bottom percentile). One broken coverage can cash this.

• Pat Freiermuth over 20.5 receiving yards (-123): Detroit’s red-zone defense has been soft (60.4% TDs allowed), and Freiermuth fits the kind of short-area targets that keep drives alive.

Detroit has the flashier profile here. The Lions can score quickly, and they stay aggressive on fourth down. That combination can snowball at home, even against a tough opponent.

Pittsburgh’s best case is a slower, grind-it-out game. The Steelers have been great at stacking first downs and finishing drives in the red zone. If they can protect the quarterback with a banged-up line, they can keep this close.

The injury list is the real landmine. If Pittsburgh is missing multiple interior linemen, the offense can stall. If Detroit is missing key defensive backs, the Steelers can finally find explosives that don’t show up in their season-long rates.

From a betting view, the cleanest angles are tied to pace and finishing. That points to Steelers +7.0 (-111) and Under 52.0 (-108) as the most “game-script” friendly looks, with props that match the same story.