• Explosive pass vs explosive-averse secondary
  Seattle’s offense leads the league in explosive passes, with a 10.6% explosive pass rate (100th percentile) and 7.3% deep pass explosive rate (94th percentile). Atlanta’s defense is actually strong at limiting big plays in the air, allowing explosive passes at just 5.4% of attempts (88th percentile), so this matchup should decide whether Seattle keeps hitting chunk gains or has to grind.

• Battle in the backfield: pass rush vs pass protection
  The Falcons generate sacks on 9.0% of dropbacks (94th percentile) and also convert pressure into sacks at a 9.0% rate (94th percentile). Seattle counters with an offensive line that has allowed sacks on only 2.6% of dropbacks (97th percentile), though that unit is banged up with multiple starters Questionable or on injured reserve. If those injuries show, Atlanta’s rush could finally tilt a game.

• Third-down mismatch favors Seattle
  The Seahawks defense stops 61.2% of opposing third downs (78th percentile), while the Falcons offense converts only 34.5% (12th percentile) and is near the bottom of the league on third-and-long at 14.8% (3rd percentile). That gap suggests Atlanta may struggle to extend drives unless they create explosives early in series.

• Falcons lean on scheme and shotgun looks
  Atlanta lines up in shotgun on 61.5% of snaps (94th percentile) and grades highly in scheme-based explosive plays at 4.3% (91st percentile). Even with a shaky line, this spread-out approach and motion can spring runs and quick throws for players like Bijan Robinson, especially if Seattle’s linebacker group, which has several Questionable pieces, is not at full strength.

• Red-zone strength vs goal-line toughness
  The Falcons convert red-zone trips into touchdowns 64.7% of the time (94th percentile), one of the best rates in the league. Seattle’s defense is solid near the goal line, with a 64.7% goal-line stuff rate (81st percentile) and a red-zone TD allowed rate of 51.3% (66th percentile). Inside the 20, this looks like a true strength-on-strength battle.

• Injuries add volatility on both sides of the ball
  Seattle’s front seven and secondary have several starters listed as Questionable, including Leonard Williams, multiple edge rushers, and key defensive backs. Atlanta’s offensive line and receiving corps are equally banged up, with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and multiple linemen on the report. Availability here may swing how aggressive each staff feels with its game plan.

• Market view on the side
  The main line has Seattle laying 7 points at -111, with Atlanta catching +7 at -122. The prices show books slightly more protective of the Falcons side at the key number, so anyone backing Seattle is paying less juice but needs them to win by more than a touchdown.

• Total shaded a bit to the under
  The primary total sits at 45.0, with the Under -120 and Over -102. That slight lean to the under lines up with Atlanta’s recent offensive struggles and the possibility that both pass rushes slow down big plays.

• Team totals mirror the storylines
  Seattle’s team total is 26.0 points with the Over at -122 and the Under at -116, which matches their recent habit of landing around 26 to 27 points. Atlanta sits at 17.5 points with nearly even juice on both sides (Over -120, Under -119), signaling low but not hopeless expectations for Cousins and the Falcons offense.

• Quarterback yardage expectations
  Sam Darnold’s passing line is 232.5 yards (Over -120, Under -119), while Kirk Cousins is down at 204.5 yards (Over -120, Under -119). The gap reflects Seattle’s stronger explosive profile plus Atlanta’s third-down issues, but Darnold’s Questionable tag adds extra risk to any over.

• Prop lean: Bijan Robinson on the ground
  Bijan’s rushing total is 66.5 yards (Over -118, Under -120). With Atlanta ranking 73rd percentile in explosive run rate and dealing with injuries at wide receiver and tight end, there is a clear path to a run-heavy script that funnels volume to him if game state cooperates.

• Prop leans in the passing game
  Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s receiving line is a big 93.5 yards (Over -120, Under -119), but it fits Seattle’s No. 1 explosive pass rate profile in a game where their team total is 26. He is also -105 to score an anytime touchdown, which ties to that offensive ceiling. On the other side, Cousins under 204.5 passing yards (-119) aligns with Atlanta’s weak third-down numbers and the battered offensive line in front of him.

Seattle enters this Week 14 matchup as the hotter team, the more efficient offense, and the more trustworthy defense on critical downs. That is why the Seahawks are laying a full touchdown on the road despite the noise around traditional home-field advantage. Their profile is built on explosive passes, long drive efficiency, and a defense that can both rush the passer and get off the field.

Atlanta still has paths to make this interesting. The Falcons scheme generates explosive plays, especially in the run game, and they are excellent in the red zone when they get there. If Bijan Robinson can rip off chunk gains and the shotgun-heavy offense keeps Seattle’s front from teeing off, the Falcons can shorten the game and protect their banged-up line. A few key plays from stars like Drake London or Kyle Pitts, if they are healthy enough to go, could flip field position and momentum.

From a betting angle, the current numbers paint a game where Seattle scores in the mid-20s and Atlanta lands somewhere in the high teens. That fits the story of a surging road favorite against a slumping home dog. But with so many key players listed as Questionable on both sides, especially along the offensive lines and in the secondary, there is real variance baked into every side, total, and prop.

If you are looking to get involved, it makes sense to match your exposure to your risk tolerance. Laying a full touchdown with an injured road favorite is always risky, while backing a struggling Falcons team plus the points means trusting an offense that has not solved third down all year. However you play it, monitor the injury reports up to kickoff, respect the juice on each bet, and remember that even strong matchup edges can get wiped out fast in a high-variance NFL game.