• Both offenses are excellent on third down
  The 49ers convert 46.5 percent of their third downs, and the Cardinals are even better at 47.2 percent. Both marks sit in the mid 90s by percentile. That points to sustained drives and fewer quick punts.

• Trey McBride is the center of the Cardinals passing game
  With Harrison out and multiple receivers hurt, McBride is on pace to lead Arizona in touches, yards, and scores. He has at least five catches in eleven straight games. Against a 49ers defense that allows a high rate of explosive passes and is thin at linebacker and safety, he should see a heavy target load again.

• 49ers defense lacks finishing power up front
  Without Bosa and several edge rushers, San Francisco ranks near the bottom of the league in sack rate and pressure to sack conversion. They can get pressure at times, but they rarely turn it into actual sacks. That can give Brissett time to work through reads and find McBride and his secondary options.

• Cardinals run defense is vulnerable, but 49ers run style is more grind than boom
  Arizona allows explosive runs at a high rate, while San Francisco’s explosive run rate on offense sits near the bottom of the league. The 49ers are more of a steady, volume run team. Expect Christian McCaffrey to churn out consistent gains rather than repeated long breakaways, especially if the 49ers are ahead.

• Red zone efficiency could swing the game
  San Francisco scores touchdowns on 60.0 percent of its red zone trips. Arizona’s defense allows touchdowns at a slightly above average rate but is not elite in the red area. On offense, the Cardinals profile suggests they settle for field goals more often than they finish with touchdowns. In a tight spread game, that difference inside the 20 could be crucial.

• Injuries funnel opportunities to a few key playmakers
  The 49ers are without George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, so more of the offense runs through McCaffrey and a mix of role receivers. Arizona is missing Harrison and several backs. That likely means heavy volume for McBride and a rotation of short area receivers, with explosive plays more likely to come from design than pure talent on the outside.

• Spread focus – 49ers -3.5 at +110
  San Francisco is a small road favorite and you can find plus money on 49ers -3.5. Their strong third down offense, fast tempo, and red zone edge line up with that spread. The risk is their thin defense, so be aware that a late drive or backdoor cover by Arizona is very live.

• Total focus – 48.5 with both sides juiced
  The main total sits at 48.5 with Over at -114 and Under at -118. Both offenses sustain drives and both defenses are banged up, which leans toward points. At the same time, Arizona’s tendency to settle for field goals and the missing downfield weapons introduce volatility. If you play the Over, you are paying decent juice and betting on red zone efficiency to hold up.

• 49ers team total over 25.5 points (-122)
  San Francisco’s offense plays fast and has a strong red zone touchdown rate. Arizona’s defense is dealing with injuries at linebacker, on the line, and in the secondary. If Purdy is close to himself, the 49ers have a clear path to get into the high twenties. The price is a bit rich, so size bets accordingly.

• Trey McBride over 75.5 receiving yards (-122)
  With Harrison out, McBride is the clear focal point. He has double digit target upside and has topped five catches in eleven straight games. The 49ers defense allows a high rate of explosive passes and is weak at creating disruptive plays. That gives McBride time and space to clear this number, though any prop at this yardage and juice level carries real variance.

• Christian McCaffrey over 70.5 rushing yards (-119)
  McCaffrey has 180 carries on the year and remains the centerpiece of the 49ers attack. Arizona ranks poorly in explosive runs allowed and their front seven is thin. If San Francisco plays with a second half lead, he is positioned to grind past this total. You are again paying juice near -120, so factor that into your bankroll plan.

• Jacoby Brissett over 19.5 rushing yards (-115)
  Brissett has enough mobility to punish a defense that cannot finish plays. San Francisco’s low sack conversion rate often turns pressure into scrambles instead of big losses. A few designed keepers plus broken play runs can push him over this number. As always with QB rush props, kneel downs and game script can work against you, so it is not a lock.

No bet is guaranteed. Use these angles as starting points and always bet within your limits.

This matchup sets up as a tight NFC West game where both offenses are better than the defenses they face. The 49ers get Brock Purdy back and lean on Christian McCaffrey behind an offense that converts third downs at a high rate and moves quickly between snaps. Even with key pass catchers out, they have enough structure to put real pressure on a wounded Cardinals defense.

Arizona turns to Jacoby Brissett again, and his steady play has kept their offense competitive despite major losses at wide receiver and running back. Trey McBride looks like the engine of their passing game and should be busy against a San Francisco defense that struggles to create sacks and turnovers without its star players. If the Cardinals can finish drives with touchdowns instead of field goals, they can stay inside the number and maybe threaten the upset.

From a betting angle, the market is telling you this is still the 49ers’ game to lose. The spread is small, the total is set near 48.5, and team totals sit in the mid twenties for San Francisco and low twenties for Arizona. That lines up with the data. The 49ers have a slight offensive edge and a red zone advantage, while both defenses have clear weak points.

However you play it, remember that injuries and volatility are real here. Purdy is coming off a toe and leg issue, and Arizona is thin at the skill positions. Live betting and careful stake sizing can help manage that risk. Enjoy the game, track the injury reports, and make sure every ticket fits within your overall bankroll plan.