• San Francisco keeps drives alive better than anyone. It converts 51.8% of third downs (best in the NFL by percentile).

• Tennessee has the opposite problem. The Titans sit at 31.1% third-down conversion (3rd percentile), so empty possessions can pile up.

• The Titans run game has not produced many chunk plays. Tennessee’s 2.5% explosive run rate ranks in the bottom tier.

• San Francisco protects its quarterback well. The 49ers allow sacks on only 3.4% of dropbacks (91st percentile).

• Tennessee’s pass protection is shaky on paper, and the line is banged up. The Titans have an 8.6% sack rate allowed (12th percentile) with multiple OL starters listed Questionable.

• Injuries can change the feel of this matchup. SF is without Nick Bosa (IR) and Fred Warner (IR), and Christian McCaffrey (Questionable) adds game-plan uncertainty.

• 49ers -12.5 (-105) is the simplest favorite angle. It asks for a clear win, not a perfect one.

• 49ers -13 (-105) is similar, but you take on the key “win by 13” push zone.

• Titans team total UNDER 15.5 (-118) matches the drive data. A 31.1% third-down rate is a rough base to score on the road.

• Under 45 (-120) fits a script where SF controls the ball ( 51.8% third down ) and Tennessee struggles to answer.

• Cam Ward UNDER 192.5 passing yards (-120) lines up with short drives and fewer total snaps if the Titans cannot convert third downs.

• Brock Purdy OVER 237.5 passing yards (-120) makes sense if Tennessee’s injured secondary forces safer throws to become easy chain-movers.

This game sets up as a field-position and drive-efficiency test. San Francisco sustains offense at an elite level on third down. Tennessee does not. That gap can turn into a long afternoon fast.

The Titans’ best path is to steal a few short fields. That can come from special teams or a rare explosive play. But Tennessee’s explosive run rate is low, and the offense already struggles to stay on schedule.

For bettors, the market has already made a statement with SF -13 and SF -770. That does not mean Tennessee cannot hang around. It just means you need a clear reason to bet against the most likely script.

Keep your final read tied to injuries. If Tennessee’s OL Questionables trend the wrong way, it can get ugly. If McCaffrey is limited and SF plays more through the air, passing props like Purdy, Kittle, and Jennings can look even cleaner.