• Miami’s rushing attack is built for chunk gains.
  The Dolphins produce explosive runs on 6.6 percent of carries, in the 94th percentile on 228 rushing attempts. That supports a game plan where Achane and the backs test a thin Washington front over and over.

• Big plays can still turn into touchdowns for Miami.
  Even without Tyreek Hill, Miami turns 23.5 percent of its 20-plus yard plays into touchdowns, a 73rd-percentile mark on 34 big plays. Washington’s secondary is missing several corners, which makes tackling and angles in space a concern.

• Miami is comfortable in long yardage.
  On third and seven or more, the Dolphins convert 31.0 percent of the time, ranking in the 84th percentile on 71 snaps. That helps them stay on the field even when early downs stall.

• The Dolphins defence is still vulnerable to explosive runs.
  Miami allows explosive runs on 8.2 percent of opponent rushes, a 3rd-percentile result over 282 attempts. If Washington’s backs are healthy enough, designed runs and Mariota scrambles could be the cleanest way for the Commanders to move the ball.

• Red zone defence could tilt drives toward shorter scores.
  Miami’s rate of red zone touchdowns allowed sits at 51.4 percent, in the 78th percentile on 37 trips. That suggests the defence stiffens near the goal line and could force more field goal tries from a Washington offence already missing several key playmakers.

• Injuries reshape both offensive identities.
  Washington loses explosive passing traits with McLaurin, Burks, and others out, so it may lean more on tight ends and backs. Miami, without Hill and with Jaylen Waddle and Malik Washington Questionable, likely continues to rely on shotgun sets, motion, and a run-first approach behind its explosive rushing profile.

• Spread sitting around Dolphins -4.0 at plus money
  The handicap market lists Dolphins -4.0 at +116 and Commanders +4.0 at -161. That price signals that the market still respects the possibility of a close game despite Washington’s collapse. The plus money on the favourite reflects the neutral field, long travel, and injury questions on both sides, which all add variance.

• Total near 48.0 leans slightly to the under on price
  The main total sits at 48.0, with Over 48.0 at -110 and Under 48.0 at -120. That small juice edge toward the under fits the mix of a strong Miami run game, a battered Washington offence, and a neutral-site early kickoff that can start slowly. At the same time, Washington’s recent defensive results in the storylines make any total approach high variance.

• Team totals imply both sides in the low-to-mid 20s
  Miami’s team total is 24.0 points with Over 24.0 at -123 and Under 24.0 at -115. Washington’s is 23.0 points with Over 23.0 at -114 and Under 23.0 at -125. Those numbers project a one-score game with both teams in the low 20s. Given Miami’s explosive run profile and Washington’s injury-hit defence, some bettors may see more upside in the Dolphins side, but injuries to Tua and Achane keep the floor in play as well.

• De’Von Achane rushing and touchdown props carry upside and risk
  Achane’s rushing line is 78.5 yards, with Over 78.5 at -120 and Under 78.5 at -119. His anytime touchdown price is -185. Both markets reflect Miami’s elite explosive run rate of 6.6 percent. They also come with clear risk because Achane is Questionable with a leg injury. If he is limited or inactive, those bets can swing sharply depending on house rules.

• Marcus Mariota’s rushing line can benefit from Miami’s defensive weakness against big runs
  Mariota’s rushing yard line is 25.5, with Over 25.5 at -119 and Under 25.5 at -120. Miami’s defence allows explosive runs on 8.2 percent of attempts, and Mariota has shown a willingness to scramble. At the same time, he is listed as Questionable with a leg strain, which adds clear volatility to any rushing prop.

• Jaylen Waddle and Greg Dulcich have reachable receiving lines in different risk buckets
  Jaylen Waddle’s receiving line is 74.5 yards, priced at Over 74.5 at -118 and Under 74.5 at -122. With Hill on IR, that number reflects a bigger role, but Waddle is also Questionable with a leg issue. Greg Dulcich, who does not appear on the injury list, sits at 26.5 receiving yards, with Over 26.5 at -116 and Under 26.5 at -122, offering a lower line tied to Washington’s need to lean on tight ends with so many wideouts hurt.

Remember that all of these prices include juice, which is the built-in fee in the odds. Even strong angles can lose in a single game, so stake only what you can afford to lose.

Washington and Miami meet in Madrid in a game that matters more for pride and evaluation than for the playoff race. The Commanders are trying to stop a five-game skid while working through one of the league’s worst injury lists. Their starting quarterback, top receiver, and several core defensive players are either out or far from full strength. That makes consistency hard to trust, especially in a travel game against an explosive opponent.

The Dolphins arrive with more positive momentum after their convincing win over Buffalo. Their rushing numbers show a team that can turn ordinary carries into big gains, and their big play touchdown rate backs up what viewers saw from Achane in Week 10. At the same time, Miami is not at full strength either. Tyreek Hill is out for the year, Tua Tagovailoa and several other starters are Questionable, and the defence still leaks big runs even as it improves.

The neutral-site setting at Santiago Bernabéu, plus the early 9:30 AM Eastern kickoff, add extra randomness. Travel, time-zone changes, and a different stadium environment can create slow starts, sudden swings, or unusual scoring patterns. Both coaches may lean on the ground game early while they feel out footing and crowd noise in a soccer stadium layout.

From a betting point of view, this matchup offers clear storylines but also a high degree of uncertainty. Miami has the cleaner path built around an explosive rushing attack and a defence that has picked up in recent weeks. Washington’s path leans on scrambles, short passing, and hoping Miami’s own issues with explosive runs allowed and turnovers show up again. However you approach it, factor in the injury tags, the neutral field, and the wide range of possible game scripts. Bet within your limits, shop for the best number, and remember that even sharp angles do not guarantee any result in a single Sunday in Spain.