LV @ DEN - Complete Statistical Matchup Analysis

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The Denver Broncos are on a heater heading into this Week 10 AFC West matchup. They sit at 7–2 after a six-game win streak and have started to draw soft comparisons to their 2015 Super Bowl season. They have done it with late-game toughness and a defense that smothers opponents, especially at home at Empower Field at Mile High.

Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has been at the center of it all. His numbers spike in the fourth quarter, where Denver has outscored opponents by a wide margin during the streak. He has shown poise when trailing and enough mobility to keep drives alive. The Broncos offense is not built on deep shots, but it is efficient, leans on the run, and tends to finish in the red zone.

The Las Vegas Raiders come in with more questions than answers. Pete Carroll’s team has been streaky, with Geno Smith turning the ball over too often and the offense struggling to sustain long drives. The bright spots are obvious. Rookie tight end Brock Bowers just had a monster return game, and receiver Tre Tucker has flashed real big-play upside. Together, they give Las Vegas a passing punch that can stress any defense, especially one missing its top corner.

This is still a tough spot for the Raiders. Their offensive line is beat up at tackle and center and now faces one of the premier pass rush units in the league. On the other side, Denver’s offense gets a home matchup against a Raiders defense that gives up too many chunk plays and struggles to get off the field without help from turnovers. Divisional stakes are high, with the Broncos trying to hold the top of the AFC West and the Raiders looking for a signature upset to shake up the race.

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HOME_TEAM: DEN
AWAY_TEAM: LV
DATE: 07NOV25
VENUE: Empower Field at Mile High
Kick Off Time (ET): 08:15pm
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[SECTION: TEAM_FORM>

away_team_record: 2-6-0
away_team_ats: 3-5-0
away_team_ou: 3-5-0
home_team_record: 7-2-0
home_team_ats: 4-5-0
home_team_ou: 3-6-0
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[SECTION: TEAM_LAST10>

home_team_last10_record: 7-3-0
home_team_last10_ats: 4-6-0
home_team_last10_ou: 3-7-0
away_team_last10_record: 3-7-0
away_team_last10_ats: 4-6-0
away_team_last10_ou: 4-6-0
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[SECTION: TEAM_NEXT3>

away_team_upcoming: TBD, TBD, TBD
home_team_upcoming: TBD, TBD, TBD
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[SECTION: INJURIES>

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[SECTION: KEY_INSIGHTS>

• Broncos pass rush vs Raiders protection
  Denver ranks at the top of the league in turning pressure into sacks, and their sack rate generated sits in the 100th percentile. The Raiders are missing multiple starting linemen and already allow sacks at a below-average rate, which could force Geno Smith into hurried reads and risky throws.

• Third-down and red-zone contrast
  Denver’s defense is elite on money downs, with a third-down stop rate in the 100th percentile and a red-zone touchdown rate allowed in the high 90s by percentile. Las Vegas struggles to finish drives, sitting near the bottom of the league in long-drive efficiency and red-zone touchdown rate. That sets up a script where the Raiders move the ball in bursts but still settle for punts or field goals.

• Raiders explosive passing vs Denver secondary injuries
  Las Vegas grades as one of the most explosive passing offenses by scheme, with top-tier marks for explosive pass rate and scheme-based explosives. They now face a Denver secondary without Pat Surtain II and possibly missing safety P.J. Locke. That combination opens up chances for Bowers and Tucker to create chunk plays if the line can hold up long enough.

• Bo Nix’s late-game profile
  Nix’s splits show a clear bump in the fourth quarter in yards per attempt and passer rating. Denver has dominated fourth quarters during the win streak, and that matters in a matchup where the Raiders have struggled to protect leads and finish games. Even if Las Vegas starts fast, Nix’s late-game track record keeps Denver live.

• Run game edges on both sides of the ball
  Denver’s offense ranks high in explosive run rate, while their defense ranks near the top of the league at preventing explosive runs. Las Vegas is strong at limiting explosive runs themselves but has a weak explosive run rate on offense and is missing pieces in the backfield and along the line. That tilts the rushing battle toward Denver in both efficiency and flexibility.

• Penalties vs turnovers as hidden pivot
  The Raiders have a negative turnover differential and a quarterback tied for the league lead in interceptions. Denver, on the other hand, has a serious penalty problem with heavy yardage given up. If the Broncos clean up flags, their down-to-down advantages could snowball. If they do not, the Raiders can stay close through free yardage even without consistent offensive success.

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[SECTION: BETTING_INSIGHTS>

• Spread: Broncos as a near double-digit favorite
  The main line sits around Broncos -9.5 at -102, with the Raiders +9.5 at about -109. That is a big number in a division game, and it bakes in Denver’s elite defense and home field along with Las Vegas turnover trouble. Bettors taking the favorite need Denver to win by double digits, while Raiders backers are betting that explosive passing and penalty variance can keep it inside the number.

• Total around the low 40s
  The anchor total is 42.5, with the Over at -111 and the Under at +100. The Broncos profile as a defense-first team with a strong red-zone unit, which points Under. At the same time, their fourth-quarter scoring and the Raiders’ explosive pass numbers point to a live Over if Las Vegas can contribute. This line is tight, so any lean should match your view on whether the Raiders offense can get past short drives and cash in their chunk plays.

• Team totals mirror the matchup story
  Denver’s team total is set around 26.5 points, with the Over at -118 and the Under at -120. Raiders team total sits near 16.5, with the Over at -111 and the Under at -130. If you believe Denver’s pass rush will hand them short fields and their red-zone efficiency holds, the Broncos Over is logical but juiced. If you see more chaos from penalties and explosive Raiders plays, the Las Vegas Over at a modest number lines up with that story.

• Brock Bowers receiving yards as a ceiling play
  Bowers’ receiving line is 62.5 yards, with the Over at -118 and the Under at -120. His recent box score and the offensive shift toward him support the Over, especially with Denver missing Surtain. He is listed as Questionable, though, so there is real injury volatility here. Any Over should be treated as a high-variance play that depends on final team reports and possible snap limitations.

• Tre Tucker receiving as a volume and script angle
  Tre Tucker’s receiving prop is 49.5 yards, with the Over at -118. If the Broncos play from ahead as the spread suggests, the Raiders will likely be in pass-heavy catch-up mode. Their scheme is built for explosive passes, and Denver’s pass rush can force Geno Smith into quick, high-variance throws. That setup favors Tucker’s Over but again comes with juice and turnover risk.

• Bo Nix rushing yards as a game-flow hedge
  Bo Nix’s rushing line sits at 21.5 yards, with both Over and Under priced around -119. His ability to scramble on third down and in the red zone has been a key part of Denver’s late-game success. Against a Raiders defense that struggles with long drives, Nix could hit this number on a handful of broken plays. As with any QB rushing prop, a conservative game plan or early blowout can still push it under, so size bets accordingly.

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[SECTION: FINAL_SUMMARY>

This matchup sets up as a classic strength-on-weakness scenario. Denver’s pass rush and third-down defense are among the best in the league, and they get to attack a Raiders offense that leans on explosives and is thin along the offensive line. Bo Nix’s steady late-game play and a supportive run game give the Broncos a solid floor at home.

The Raiders bring volatility to the table. Their scheme creates explosive passing plays, and Brock Bowers plus Tre Tucker can flip the field in a hurry. That is especially true with Denver missing Pat Surtain II and dealing with a banged-up secondary. The problem for Las Vegas is everything in between those highlights. Long drives, red-zone efficiency, and turnover control have not been strengths, and this opponent punishes mistakes.

From a betting perspective, the market reflects those realities. Denver is priced as a heavy favorite with a total in the low 40s and team totals that expect a solid scoring output from the Broncos and a lower, more fragile number from the Raiders. Player props on Bowers, Tucker, Sutton, and Nix sit at lines that assume meaningful roles and fairly efficient production, with juice that demands discipline.

However you choose to bet this game, it is worth matching your wagers to a clear story. If you trust the Broncos defense and Nix’s late-game track record, spreads and Denver-leaning team totals and props fit that view. If you think the Raiders’ explosive passing and Denver’s penalty issues can pull this into a shootout or a tight finish, Raiders plus the points and pass-catcher Overs make more sense. As always, shop lines, manage your stake size, and remember that even the best matchup edges can lose in a single game sample.

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[SECTION: HOME_PAST_RESULTS>

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[SECTION: AWAY_PAST_RESULTS>

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[SECTION: HEAD_TO_HEAD>

HTH_Win_Loss: 3-2
HTH_ATS: 3-2-0
HTH_OU: 3-2-0

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[SECTION: QB>

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[SECTION: SCORING>

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[SECTION: REDZONE>

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[SECTION: PASSING>

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[SECTION: PASS_PROTECTION>

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[SECTION: RUSHING>

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[SECTION: SUCCESS_RATES>

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[SECTION: TURNOVERS>

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[SECTION: PENALTIES>

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[SECTION: FIELD_GOALS>

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[SECTION: PUNTING>

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[SECTION: RETURNS>

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[SECTION: POSSESSION_TEMPO>

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[SECTION: EXPLOSIVENESS>

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[SECTION: MISC_SPECIAL>

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