NFL Black Monday: Hot Seat Coaches & Betting Edges

Black Monday Watch: Who’s On the Hot Seat as the NFL Coaching Carousel Heats Up?

The NFL regular season is wrapping up, which means it’s officially “Black Monday Watch” season. The coaching rumor mill is spinning, the hot seats are scorching, and GMs are sweating through their suits. From the chaos in Carolina to the unraveling in Atlanta, we’ve got a league-wide shakeup coming — and if you’re betting futures or props, it’s time to start reading between the lines. Let’s dive into the most dysfunctional, dramatic, and downright puzzling situations across the league and what they mean for bettors.

Pete Carroll's Last Ride? Seattle Spirals Into Dysfunction

Things are looking messy in Seattle. Pete Carroll was supposed to bring stability and vision to the organization, but instead, it’s been a masterclass in confusion. The rookies aren’t playing. The offensive line is a revolving door. And the coaching staff seems to be making decisions based on vibes and vintage USC game tape. The whole operation feels like a sequel no one asked for.

From a betting perspective, Seattle is entering full-reset territory. If there’s a market for “first head coach fired next season,” Carroll (if he survives this year) should be high on your radar. Keep an eye on the draft too — if the front office finally takes the reins from Carroll, expect a shift toward younger, more modern football minds. Futures bettors, stay flexible. This team could look radically different by training camp.

Cardinals and Falcons: Two Teams, One Job Opening?

Arizona and Atlanta are on parallel tracks of underachievement. Jonathan Gannon’s Cardinals looked scrappy early on, but the wheels have fallen off. Despite some solid draft picks, the team has regressed hard. Kyler Murray's days in the desert might be numbered, and if that happens, a full-on rebuild is in play. There's a lot to like in their rookie class, but the coaching staff seems to be planning their beach vacations already.

Meanwhile, in Atlanta, Rahim Morris might be holding onto his job by a thread. The Falcons have underperformed despite a division so weak you could trip into the playoffs. GM Terry Fontenot’s track record is questionable at best, and if there's a front office change, it’s likely a new coach follows. From a betting angle, this is a team that could be led by a completely different regime in 2024 — one that finally uses its offensive weapons correctly (hello, Kyle Pitts).

These two teams face off this weekend, and the result could tip the scales. A win might just save a job. A blowout loss? Pack the boxes.

Wild Cards: Bengals, Jets, and the Curious Case of Joe Burrow

The Bengals are officially in the “should they or shouldn’t they” zone when it comes to head coach Zac Taylor. Yes, Joe Burrow’s injury derailed the season. But two years over the hill and a stale offense might be enough to make a change. Joe Brady’s name is floating around as a possible replacement — and given his chemistry with Burrow at LSU, that’s a futures bet worth watching.

In New York, the Jets are doing Jets things. Robert Saleh might survive another year, but it’s unclear if that’s a good thing. The team’s defensive energy — once a hallmark — has completely vanished. The offense is a mess, and with Aaron Rodgers returning next year (maybe), the pressure will be immense. If Saleh stays and the Jets don’t start strong in 2024, look out. They’ll be at the top of the midseason firing odds.

Big Names in Play: Belichick, Tomlin, and the Old Guard

Let’s talk legends. Bill Belichick’s name keeps popping up in connection with the Falcons, which is either deeply ironic or cosmically cruel considering that whole 28-3 thing. Could Atlanta really hand the keys to Belichick a decade later? That would be peak Falcons.

Mike Tomlin might be open to a trade. Yes, a trade. If Pittsburgh decides it’s time for a new voice, Tomlin could fetch a premium. Teams with strong rosters but weak leadership — think Chargers or even Commanders — would pounce. Watch the books: if Tomlin’s name starts swirling in coaching odds, it’s not smoke. It’s a signal.

And let’s not forget Sean McDermott in Buffalo. He’s done a solid job, but the Bills might want a fresh approach if they fall short again. A change here could shake up AFC futures betting in a big way — especially if Josh Allen gets paired with an offensive-minded head coach.

The Young Guns and the Long Shots

This year’s coaching carousel could get weird. While the usual suspects — Ben Johnson, Lou Anarumo, and Anthony Weaver — are getting buzz, a few wild cards are sneaking into the conversation. Davis Webb, the Broncos’ QB coach, is one to watch. He’s young, well-regarded, and could be a surprise hire for a team going the “next McVay” route.

Then there’s the retread gang. Guys like Jim Schwartz, Robert Saleh (if fired), and even Todd Monken could get another shot. Monken’s Ravens offense hasn’t wowed this year, but in the right situation — say Buffalo or Baltimore with a QB already in place — he could make sense. Just don’t expect him to take over a rebuilding squad.

If you're betting on coaching hires, this is where the value is. The favorites are priced accordingly, but a name like Davis Webb or Anthony Campanile could pay off big if you get in early.

Takeaways for Bettors

• Seattle's chaos makes them a risky bet in all markets. Expect sweeping changes soon.
• Cardinals vs. Falcons could be a "loser leaves town" match for both head coaches. Watch that line closely.
• Joe Burrow’s next coach could reshape Cincinnati's offense — and their Super Bowl odds.
• Tomlin and Belichick trades or departures would shake up multiple teams' futures markets.
• Coaching carousel long shots like Davis Webb offer betting value if you're looking to get ahead of the market.

When it comes to the NFL coaching cycle, it’s not just about who gets fired — it’s about who gets hired. And for sharp bettors, keeping tabs on the sideline soap operas can give you the edge before the odds catch up. Buckle up. The offseason starts now.