West Ham United have climbed. Fifteen points in nine games. Two clean sheets in five. They're 18th but level on points with safety. The turnaround from W3 D5 L13 to this recent run is real. At Villa Park on Sunday, the narrative of "big team crushing little team" misses the actual story. This is about Villa's attacking collapse versus West Ham's newly tightened defense.

Villa's midfield uncertainty heading into this match matters. Youri Tielemans returned to training Friday after 11 matches out. As Unai Emery said: "Today is the first time he has trained with us. He is feeling good. I don't know if he will be in the squad for Sunday. If he is, then we will progressively get him with us." With Tielemans, Villa create more chances. Without him, West Ham's compact shape becomes even more viable.

This Premier League clash is set for goals and tension. Villa need to reassert dominance. West Ham need points. Neither will sit back entirely.

• Villa control possession but face West Ham's low block. Villa average 8.9 deep completions per game at home; West Ham compress at 4.7 deep passes away. Service into the box becomes restricted.
• Combined xGA of 3.40 (Villa 1.55 plus West Ham 1.85 per game) strongly backs Both Teams to Score. West Ham's recent 1-1 draws show they find the net even in losing efforts.
• Set pieces gain value when opposing shape is compact. Villa's 8.9 deep completions at home translate to corner opportunities West Ham's low-block limits in open play.
• Ollie Watkins leads Villa's attack but has underperformed expected goals by 3.5 on the season. West Ham's two clean sheets in five suggest improved organization to test him further.
• West Ham have earned 15 points in nine games, including a road win and draws against Manchester City and Chelsea. Their away form isn't as fragile as the league table suggests.
• Draws account for nearly one in every four EPL matches. With Villa's form crisis and West Ham's defensive compact, a nil-nil or 1-1 remains in play despite Villa playing at home.

West Ham have found something defensively. Fifteen points in nine games isn't a mirage. They won't beat Villa on Sunday, but a tight 1-0 loss or a hard-earned draw sits well within their recent performance band. The best angle is Over 2.5 Goals: both sides will create chances, West Ham will generate threats on the counter, and Villa's desperation for a positive result will lead to an open second half.

One caveat: nothing is guaranteed in football. Form can reverse on a single match. But head into this game understanding that West Ham have tightened defensively while Villa's attack has lost sharpness. That's why we're backing the goals and the West Ham cushion.