Premier League Midweek Betting: Goals & Value Bets

Goals Galore and Value Bets: Your Midweek Soccer Betting Breakdown

It’s a jam-packed midweek fixture list in the Premier League, and the betting boards are buzzing. From Arsenal’s nervy home form to Villa’s red-hot streak, there’s plenty for punters to chew on. We’ve got leans, locks, and a few cheeky long shots. Let’s break down this week’s key matchups with betting angles that could turn a pizza money wager into a full-blown feast.

Arsenal vs. Aston Villa: Goals, Goals, Goals?

Let’s start with the game of the week: Arsenal hosting Aston Villa. On paper, it’s a clash of styles. Arsenal are winning, yes, but not convincingly. Their last three wins have all been by a single goal, and they’ve needed own goals and penalties to get over the line. Meanwhile, Villa are flying. They’ve won 11 of their last 12 matches, including a win over Arsenal just three weeks ago. They've scored two or more in 10 of those games.

Villa at 5 to 1 or better? That’s hard to ignore. So even if Arsenal do edge it, the odds on Villa are just too tasty to pass up. The savvy angle here: Villa double chance at around 13 to 10 or their team total over 1.5 goals at 4 to 1. Both offer tremendous value considering Arsenal’s leaky defense at the Emirates.

For those who like totals, the over 2.5 goals and both teams to score seems almost automatic. Villa’s last six games have all gone over 2.5 with both teams scoring. Arsenal have conceded in five of their last six at home. A 2-1 Arsenal win feels like the script—Villa score, Arsenal escape, bettors cash in.

Underdog Watch: Fulham, Forest, and Brentford

Next up, let’s talk about some underdogs with bite. Fulham travel to Crystal Palace, and the vibes around Selhurst Park aren’t good. Palace look out of gas, riddled with injuries, and lacking spark. Fulham, on the other hand, have won three of their last four and look more compact defensively. The historical trend in this fixture is wild—only one home win in the last 14 meetings. Fulham +0.25 at plus money looks like a sharp play. For the bold, Fulham to win outright at over 2 to 1 is worth a nibble.

Over at the City Ground, Nottingham Forest take on an Everton side missing key attackers due to Afcon absences. Forest have looked more solid lately, especially in their gritty showing against Manchester City. With goal threats limited on both sides, the angle is both teams to score – no at around -113. A 1-0 either way or a goalless stalemate wouldn’t surprise anyone here.

Brentford hosting Spurs might be the best value of the lot. Brentford are a different beast at home, smashing goals past teams like Liverpool, Newcastle, and Bournemouth recently. Spurs, meanwhile, continue to be an enigma—capable of brilliance and baffling mediocrity in the same match. Brentford to win at around 13 to 10 is a very solid shout, especially when you consider Spurs' shaky record on the road. For a goals-based play, Brentford team total over 1.5 is supported by trends and recent form.

Big Clubs, Tricky Spots: Chelsea, Man United, Liverpool

It’s never easy to trust the big names blindly, and this week is no different. Chelsea entertain Bournemouth, and the Blues are just one win in six. Bournemouth are winless in nine but love chaos on the road—27 goals conceded in nine away games, with an average of nearly five total goals per match. Over 3 Asian total at near even money is a popular play here. If Semenyo doesn’t start, Chelsea’s odds will likely shorten, but either way, goals seem certain.

Manchester United welcome Wolves, and while the Red Devils are strong favorites, nothing’s been convincing. Wolves have been competitive against the league’s elite, scoring in road trips to Arsenal, Liverpool, and Villa. United’s clean sheet last time out was an outlier—they’d conceded in 11 straight before that. Both teams to score is a solid option, or Wolves +1 on the handicap at a decent price. Don’t be shocked by a 2-1 United win with plenty of drama along the way.

Liverpool host Leeds in a match that screams goals. Leeds are unbeaten in five and scoring freely. Liverpool, though patchy, are still unbeaten in their last six. Both teams have scored in eight straight Leeds matches, and the over has hit in six of those. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at around even money looks like a banker. For the prop hunters, Calvert-Lewin anytime scorer is worth a look given his current form.

Low Scorers and Draw Specials

Burnley vs. Newcastle and West Ham vs. Brighton offer different kinds of betting puzzles. Burnley are winless in nine, Newcastle have one road win in nine. With both teams light on firepower and heavy on injuries, under 2.5 goals at even money is about as sexy as this game gets—ugly but profitable.

As for West Ham and Brighton, neither side is in form. West Ham haven’t beaten Brighton in eight Premier League tries. Brighton’s away form is poor, but West Ham are worse. Seven straight without a win. A draw at +255 looks like the value play, and under 2.5 goals also makes sense given recent results and key absences due to Afcon.

Takeaways for Bettors

• Villa double chance or team total over 1.5 – Arsenal are winning ugly, Villa are scoring for fun.
• Fulham +0.25 or moneyline – Palace are fading fast; Fulham are thriving.
• Forest vs. Everton – both teams to score: No – Attacking options are limited on both sides.
• Brentford to beat Spurs – Home dominance meets Tottenham inconsistency.
• Over 3 Asian total in Chelsea-Bournemouth – Bournemouth road matches are goal festivals.
• Man United-Wolves: both teams to score – United’s defense can’t be trusted, Wolves punch above their weight.
• Liverpool-Leeds: BTTS + Over 2.5 – Goals are practically guaranteed in this one.
• Burnley-Newcastle: Under 2.5 goals – Injuries and poor form make this a grind.
• West Ham-Brighton: Draw – History and current form point to a stalemate.

This week offers a buffet of betting options, from goal-heavy thrillers to grim 0-0 grinds. Whether you're going for the chalk or chasing the value dogs, there’s something for every punter. Just remember: don’t chase the price, chase the angle.

Links

• BetRivers Sportsbook Bonus Code: BettingWeekly1218 (US only, valid through January 11)