Brunson Over 26.5 Points (-114) | HIGH confidence. This is the sharpest individual pick on tonight's slate. Brunson is averaging 29.0 points against Cleveland in this playoff series, his last-10 average is 30.4 PPG, and he is running a systematic ball-screen scheme against Mitchell that has produced 1.32 points per possession across two games. He drives 14.8 times per game at a 52.4% clip and creates his own shot against any coverage Cleveland throws at him. In a clinching game, his offensive burden only expands. The -114 price is not steep for a player this locked in against this specific opponent.

Bridges Over 14.5 Points (-137) | HIGH confidence. Bridges has averaged 17.5 PPG over his last 10 games and 19.7 points against Cleveland across their six matchups this season. His 37.5% catch-and-shoot three-point rate generates consistent volume off Brunson's ball-screen pressure, and Cleveland's 15th-ranked defensive rating means those looks keep coming. In an elimination game where his minutes extend with the series on the line, the 14.5 point threshold looks low. Seven of his last eight games he has cleared the 23.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists line. Getting over 14.5 in points alone should come with regularity here.

First Basket: Jarrett Allen (+475). Allen leads Cleveland in first-basket rate at 21.9% across his starts this season, ranking first on the team. Cleveland wins the opening tip 64.6% of the time, and as the center, Allen is the natural first-possession target in transition. The market prices this at 17.4% implied probability, but his actual rate is 21.9%, a meaningful gap at +475. Brunson is the closest comparable on the Knicks' side, but New York wins the tip only 52.6% of games, which reduces his opportunity. Allen is the play.

Carmen Mlodzinski Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+108, HIGH): This is the clearest value on the board. Mlodzinski's last three starts produced 1, 2, and 1 strikeout, an average of 1.3 Ks over that stretch. His three career starts against the Cubs totaled 2, 5, and 3 Ks, clearing 3.5 just once in three outings. He gets hitters out with contact management, not swing-and-miss. Getting plus money for a pitcher averaging well under 3.5 Ks in recent work is a genuine pricing error.