Arsenal to Win (-161). The xG gap is not close: Arsenal +40.31 versus West Ham -17.97 for the season. Arsenal won 6-0 and 5-2 on their last two visits to London Stadium. Title-race intensity raises the urgency. Market-implied 61.7% probability aligns with our model but slightly undervalues the historical dominance in this specific matchup.

Saka Shots On Target Over 0.5 (-192). 2.9 shots per 90 and 0.90 shots on target per appearance. Saka's recent form ensures he will be a primary attacking outlet. The implied 65.8% probability significantly underprices his near-automatic shot-on-target production.

Castellanos to be Carded (+200). 0.37 yellows per 90 minutes, the highest card rate among West Ham attackers. As a physical striker battling Arsenal's backline in a trailing position, he will chase and foul to create chances. Match-level card volume compounds his individual risk.

Tim Iroegbunam to be Carded: 0.58 yellows per 90 minutes (8 total this season), the highest card rate on Everton's squad by a wide margin. Bramall's 4.29 cards per match cadence directly targets Iroegbunam's profile. With BTTS and Over 2.5 predicted, midfield intensity will be elevated and fouls frequent. Plus-175 implies 36.4% probability, the data supports higher.