Bruno Fernandes Anytime Assist at +200. Fernandes averages 0.48 xA per 90 and 3.8 key passes per game, both the highest in the dataset. He is one assist away from tying Thierry Henry and Kevin De Bruyne's 20-assist single-season record. In a match where we predict Over 2.5 goals and BTTS, United will score at least once. Fernandes is the creator for virtually every United attack. In an open, high-goal environment, his assist probability exceeds the +200 odds.

Casemiro to be carded at +154. 0.33 yellows per 90 is the highest disciplinary rate among outfield players in the dataset. In a match where United will defend or chase, Casemiro's challenge rate increases. Darren England's 4.5 cards per match average (rank 2 in EPL) predisposes the match toward bookings. The +154 odds (39.4 percent implied) underestimate a player with this discipline profile in this context.

Romero to be carded at +124. He averages 0.53 cards per game and 0.43 yellows per 90 minutes. In a tight, physical match, his aggressive defensive style makes him the highest-risk player on the pitch for a booking. This is the clearest card bet available.

Daniel Muñoz to be Carded at plus-260 represents elite value. Muñoz carries a 0.31 yellows-per-90 rate (7 cards in 2,056 minutes), the highest booking rate among all players in this fixture. An attacking right-back pressing high in a match Palace face defensive pressure translates to cynical challenges. Robert Jones's card-heavy officiating amplifies this edge.