Thunder -10.0 (-130) | HIGH Confidence. Our blended model projects OKC wins by 13.5 points (114.3 to 100.8), putting 3.5 points of cushion between the projection and the spread line. Thunder have covered in all seven meetings with the Lakers this season. Doncic is out. The Lakers are 0-1 at home in their last five. The structural case for a double-digit OKC win has never been cleaner. This is the top play of the night.

James Harden Over 6.5 assists at -132 is the highest-confidence prop on tonight's board. His season average is 8.0 APG. His last-10 average is 9.0 APG, which is 2.5 helpers above the line. Cleveland's offense runs through his hands at 27.9% usage, and his 13.6 drives per game create constant kick-out reads. Even his lower vsDET number barely approaches 6.5. This line is a soft target and the market knows it, which is why the price is where it is.

Jarrett Allen Under 7.5 rebounds at -114 is driven by a sustained decline across every split. His last-10 average is 7.0 RPG, well off his 8.5 season mark. His series average against Detroit is only 5.5 RPG across six games. Detroit's elite defensive rebounding limits his offensive glass activity, and in tight playoff rotations his minute management shrinks further when foul trouble becomes a factor. All three signals point under.

Austin Reaves Under 24.5 Points (-217) | HIGH Confidence. Reaves averages 18.7 points in three games against OKC this season, well below the 24.5 line. His surge in his last ten games came against weaker defenses. OKC's league-best DRTG disrupts his drives and catch-and-shoot rhythm. Factor in blowout garbage time compressing his counting stats, and this under has real teeth. The -217 price reflects the market's awareness, but the edge is genuine.