Yves Bissouma to be Carded at +192 stands out on individual metrics. Bissouma posts 0.58 yellows per 90 minutes, the highest on the Spurs squad. Poisson probability for at least one yellow is approximately 44%, well above the market's 34.2% implied (+192). Spurs' aggressive high-press system will force challenges that Gillett's profile cannot override.

Yves Bissouma to be Carded at +192 stands out on individual metrics. Bissouma posts 0.58 yellows per 90 minutes, the highest on the Spurs squad. Poisson probability for at least one yellow is approximately 44%, well above the market's 34.2% implied (+192). Spurs' aggressive high-press system will force challenges that Gillett's profile cannot override.

Leeds +0.5 Asian Handicap at -101 is the sharpest value on the board. This bet wins on any Leeds result or draw, covering the two most likely outcomes given Spurs' home collapse and Leeds' recent form. Near-even money for a 50-50 proposition with form momentum behind Leeds is exceptional bankroll geometry.

Draw at +300 is the primary lean. The model projects 53% for Spurs, but recent form (0 wins at home in 5) and injury depth (Kinsky, 8 absences) compress that advantage. Market is overweighting historical dominance. True draw probability sits closer to 28-30%, making +300 mathematically sound despite medium confidence given variance inherent in tight matches.