Jalen Brunson Over 24.5 Points (-145), high confidence. Brunson averages 30.4 PPG in his last 10 games and 27.7 PPG against San Antonio in three prior meetings this season. He posted 30 points in Game 1 shooting 12-for-31. His drive volume (14.8 per game) generates free throws and pull-up attempts that hold up even on inefficient-shooting nights. The Knicks' offensive structure concentrates usage in his hands in crunch time. 24.5 is well below his recent floor. This is the cleanest prop on the slate.

Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 Rebounds (-141), high confidence. Wembanyama averages 11.5 RPG for the season, but his last 10 games show 13.8 RPG. In three games against the Knicks this season, he averaged 12.7 RPG. A slower, more physical playoff game creates fewer transition sequences and more contested half-court boards, the exact conditions that push his rebounding up. The 11.5 line sits below both his recent trend and his series average versus New York. The Under on the total and this rebounding prop point in the same direction.

First Basket: Victor Wembanyama (+333). Wembanyama scores the first basket in 25% of his home starts. San Antonio wins the opening tip 78.2% of games at Frost Bank Center. As the tallest player on the floor and his team's designated tip-winner, Wembanyama gets the first possession in the majority of home games and his first-shot frequency (27.8%) confirms immediate involvement. At +333, you are getting better than 3-to-1 on the most likely individual first basket scorer in this game. The convergence of tip dominance, first-shot frequency, and home venue makes this a clean value play.

Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 Hits @ +156 (HIGH). Goldschmidt has a .043 career average with a 0.272 OPS in 27 plate appearances against Gray across five separate seasons (2015, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023). His most recent meeting in 2023 produced 3 PA and a 0.000 OPS. Even with Goldschmidt's 2026 overall slash of .276/.360/.528, the career futility against Gray is deep, consistent, and spread across multiple sample points over more than a decade. Getting +156 on a hitter with a .043 career average against tonight's starter is clear positive-EV value. That number does the talking.