Leeds United moneyline (-256): Market implies 71.9%, our model 71.1%. This is a fair price on a near-certain outcome. Burnley have won once in 25 league matches and average 0.5 goals per game away. Take it for portfolio completeness, not edge.

Both Teams to Score: No (-111): This is the sharpest pick on the card. Burnley have scored in just 1 of their last 5 away matches (0.5 goals per game). Leeds have 3 clean sheets in 5 home games. Market prices at -111 (52.6% implied), but given Burnley's xG of 0.60 in their last away match, a Leeds clean sheet should land 55-58% of the time. Edge is here.

Zian Flemming Over 0.5 Shots on Target (-118): 2.8 shots per 90, 0.76 SOT per appearance (19 SOT in 25 apps), 0.52 xG/90. Market implies 54.1%, but his actual SOT/app rate is 76%—clear positive edge. Burnley's primary attacking threat will see sustained involvement. Back him.

Leeds United moneyline (-256): Market implies 71.9%, our model 71.1%. This is a fair price on a near-certain outcome. Burnley have won once in 25 league matches and average 0.5 goals per game away. Take it for portfolio completeness, not edge.