De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5 assists (-169) , HIGH confidence. This is the cleanest edge on the entire slate. Fox averages 6.2 APG on the season, 7.0 APG over his last ten (trending up), and 6.3 APG across six games against New York. Every single split lands comfortably above 5.5. His 12.1 drives per game and 28.6 AST% lock in his role as the primary distributor. In a half-court elimination game where Wembanyama needs to be fed in controlled sets, Fox becomes even more central to how San Antonio generates offense. The juice at -169 is fair for a prop with this level of cross-split confirmation. Bet this one confidently.

First Basket: Victor Wembanyama (+333). San Antonio wins the opening tip 78.8% of the time, the highest tip-win rate in this matchup by a significant margin. Wembanyama's first-basket rate on the team is 25.3%, the best on the Spurs, representing 19 first baskets in 75 starts. He takes the opening shot on more than one in four possessions when San Antonio controls the tip, backed by a 31.6% usage rate and 5.9 drives per game to generate volume. Near-certain tip possession combined with the league's best first-basket rate at this position is a decisive combination at +333.

Aaron Civale Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-118) | HIGH confidence. Three consecutive starts, three identical outcomes: 2 K in 4 IP (May 25), 2 K in 5 IP (May 20), 2 K in 5 IP (May 15). All three were well under the 3.5 line. His 2026 K/9 of 6.36 across 55.2 innings is one of the lowest rates among active starters. Project that rate across roughly 4.8 innings (per his outs line) and you get approximately 3.4 expected strikeouts. Market prices the under at -118, confirming consensus. Three consecutive 2-K outings against varied opponents is as clean a statistical signal as this market produces. Extended rest does not change his underlying strikeout profile.

Sandy Alcantara Over 4.5 Strikeouts @ -110 (High confidence): Alcantara has posted 7, 7, and 5 strikeouts in his last three starts, clearing 4.5 in all three outings. His 2026 command is sharp: 23 walks in 97.1 innings. Philadelphia is a right-hand-heavy lineup hitting .228 as a team, a contact-first profile that fits what Alcantara does well. Working deep into games gives him the volume to accumulate. The 4.5 line is underselling his current floor.