De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5 assists (-169) , HIGH confidence. This is the cleanest edge on the entire slate. Fox averages 6.2 APG on the season, 7.0 APG over his last ten (trending up), and 6.3 APG across six games against New York. Every single split lands comfortably above 5.5. His 12.1 drives per game and 28.6 AST% lock in his role as the primary distributor. In a half-court elimination game where Wembanyama needs to be fed in controlled sets, Fox becomes even more central to how San Antonio generates offense. The juice at -169 is fair for a prop with this level of cross-split confirmation. Bet this one confidently.

First Basket: Victor Wembanyama (+333). San Antonio wins the opening tip 78.8% of the time, the highest tip-win rate in this matchup by a significant margin. Wembanyama's first-basket rate on the team is 25.3%, the best on the Spurs, representing 19 first baskets in 75 starts. He takes the opening shot on more than one in four possessions when San Antonio controls the tip, backed by a 31.6% usage rate and 5.9 drives per game to generate volume. Near-certain tip possession combined with the league's best first-basket rate at this position is a decisive combination at +333.

Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+132) , HIGH confidence. Goldschmidt posts a 1.232 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. Weathers is a lefthander. Goldschmidt has 11 home runs in just 185 plate appearances, and his slugging percentage against same-handed pitchers is well above his overall .560 mark. Yankee Stadium's 1.15 HR factor amplifies every hard contact. A struggling LHP in this park against a batter with this level of platoon dominance at +132 is clear value.

Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) , HIGH confidence: Harper's career line against Manaea is not a small-sample fluke. In 15 plate appearances: .400 average, 1.067 OPS, 1 home run. The most recent data confirms the trend: 1.250 OPS in 2024, 1.200 OPS in 2025. He is running cold over the last seven days at .253 OPS, which makes a correction game more likely rather than less. CBP's 1.10 HR factor adds an extra-bases lever. At +120 this is one of the cleaner matchup-backed props on the board and the highest-conviction individual pick on this game.