Jalen Brunson Over 24.5 Points (-164) | HIGH confidence. Brunson has scored 35, 26, and 33 in this series. His L10 average is 30.4 PPG. He averages 31.3 against Philadelphia specifically this postseason. He creates via 14.8 drives per game, shoot catch-and-shoot threes at 40.7%, and owns a 48.8% clutch field-goal percentage. The 24.5 line sits 6.8 points below his series average. Even a quiet night from Brunson by his recent standards clears 25. This is the highest-confidence play on the board.

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 9.5 Rebounds (-200) | HIGH confidence. Towns pulls 11.9 per game on the season with a 68.4 defensive rebounding percentage. His L10 is 11.2 RPG. Against Philadelphia across seven games this season, he has averaged 10.0 rebounds. If Embiid is limited or unavailable, the interior presence defending the glass is reduced even further. Every split points comfortably above 9.5.

Josh Hart Over 7.5 Rebounds (-227) | HIGH confidence. Hart has averaged 9.3 rebounds per game against Philadelphia in six matchups this season, and his L10 is 8.6 RPG trending upward. The Sixers rank 17th in defensive rating and their frontcourt creates extra board opportunities. Hart's 65.4 defensive rebounding percentage and 9.1 contested defensive rebound chances per game make the 7.5 line look soft. Yes, the price is steep. The floor justifies it.

Paul George Under 17.5 Points (-130) | HIGH confidence. George averages 13.7 PPG in six games against New York this season at 37.0% from the field. His last-10 is 15.3 PPG, down two points from his 17.3 season average. The Knicks rank seventh in defensive rating (112.3) and have clearly schemed him into a secondary role. Every data point, season average, L10, and vs-NYK split, sits at or below the 17.5 line. The probability here is strong.