De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5 assists (-169) , HIGH confidence. This is the cleanest edge on the entire slate. Fox averages 6.2 APG on the season, 7.0 APG over his last ten (trending up), and 6.3 APG across six games against New York. Every single split lands comfortably above 5.5. His 12.1 drives per game and 28.6 AST% lock in his role as the primary distributor. In a half-court elimination game where Wembanyama needs to be fed in controlled sets, Fox becomes even more central to how San Antonio generates offense. The juice at -169 is fair for a prop with this level of cross-split confirmation. Bet this one confidently.

First Basket: Victor Wembanyama (+333). San Antonio wins the opening tip 78.8% of the time, the highest tip-win rate in this matchup by a significant margin. Wembanyama's first-basket rate on the team is 25.3%, the best on the Spurs, representing 19 first baskets in 75 starts. He takes the opening shot on more than one in four possessions when San Antonio controls the tip, backed by a 31.6% usage rate and 5.9 drives per game to generate volume. Near-certain tip possession combined with the league's best first-basket rate at this position is a decisive combination at +333.

Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-108) | Run Line | HIGH confidence. This is the clearest structural edge on the board. Johnson cannot stay in games, the Angels are missing Trout and Soler, and Baltimore enters on a three-game win streak with four home runs in their last outing. Getting -1.5 at near even money against this kind of mismatch is the primary play. The Orioles have won their last three games and their power-heavy lineup targets exactly the type of pitcher Johnson has become in 2026.

Kyle Schwarber home run yes: Schwarber carries 29 HR on the season, hit three home runs on June 22, and owns a career 1.933 OPS against Littell in 5 PA including a 5.000 OPS in their 2026 meetings specifically. Littell has allowed 20 HR in 71.0 IP in 2026 at a 2.53 HR/9 rate, making this +180 price a meaningful value where true HR probability is closer to 42-45%.