Game Preview of Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers. Week 3 of 2025 NFL Season
The NFC West stays hot in Santa Clara. The Arizona Cardinals visit the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. Both teams are 2-0 with a chance to grab an early edge in the division.
Quarterback news drives this matchup. Brock Purdy is Out, so San Francisco turns to the next man up in Kyle Shanahan’s system. That often means a steadier run plan and quick throws. Star tight end George Kittle is on IR, and several 49ers receivers are banged up, so Christian McCaffrey should carry a big load.
Arizona brings playmaking at quarterback with Kyler Murray, plus a rising run game. But the offensive line is thin, and the defense has injuries at corner. One starting corner is out and three starters are listed questionable. That uncertainty matters against Shanahan’s route combinations.
The market has the 49ers as small home favorites at -3.0 (-118) with a total of 45.0 (Over -122, Under -110). That points to a tight, lower-to-mid scoring script where red-zone finishing and turnovers decide it.
Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
---|---|---|---|---|
2025-09-14 | @ NO | W 26-21 | W +-3.0 | o40.5 |
2025-09-07 | @ SEA | W 17-13 | W +-2.5 | u43.5 |
2025-01-05 | @ ARI | L 24-47 | L 4.5 | o42.5 |
2024-12-30 | vs DET | L 34-40 | L -4.0 | o50.5 |
2024-12-22 | @ MIA | L 17-29 | L -2.0 | o44.0 |
2024-12-12 | vs LAR | L 6-12 | L 3.0 | u48.5 |
2024-12-08 | vs CHI | W 38-13 | W +3.0 | o43.5 |
2024-12-01 | @ BUF | L 10-35 | L 6.5 | p45.0 |
2024-11-24 | @ GB | L 10-38 | L 6.5 | o44.5 |
2024-11-17 | vs SEA | L 17-20 | W +6.0 | u49.0 |
Protection risk for Arizona: The Cardinals have a 14.7% sack rate allowed (3rd percentile, small early sample). That stresses timing routes and pushes Murray to scramble.
49ers takeaways travel: San Francisco’s defense owns a 3.5% turnover generation rate (91st percentile). Short fields could follow if pressure forces mistakes.
Explosive pass filter: Arizona’s defense allows explosive passes on just 2.1% of attempts (94th percentile). That can cap 49ers deep shots, especially with WR injuries.
Ground game lever: Arizona’s offense hits 7.4% explosive runs (84th percentile). If the Cards crease SF’s front, they can control tempo and set up play-action.
Third-down quality: The 49ers convert 51.9% on third down (78th percentile). That helps sustain long drives, which fits a backup-QB plan.
Small-sample warning: These are early-season traits. Many metrics come from fewer than ~70 plays. Treat ranks as directional, not final.
Spread: 49ers -3.0 (-118) vs Cardinals +3.0 (-119). Tight tax both ways; hooks matter in a likely one-score game.
Total: 45.0 with Over -122 and Under -110. The juice leans to points, but injuries point to uneven offense.
Moneyline: 49ers -152, Cardinals +130 in regulation.
McCaffrey over 67.5 rush yds (-122): SF likely leans run with Purdy out and WR injuries.
Trey McBride over 62.5 rec yds (-120): SF has allowed a 9.8% explosive pass rate; McBride is Murray’s high-volume target.
Marvin Harrison Jr. over 47.5 rec yds (-122): Expect a usage bump to attack SF’s intermediate zones.
Kyler Murray over 28.5 rush yds (-116): OL injuries plus SF pressure create scramble chances.
Jauan Jennings over 53.5 rec yds (-120) volatility: He’s Questionable; number is live only if he suits up.
Arizona’s path is clear: protect Kyler just enough and run with efficiency. Their offense has flashed chunk gains on the ground. If that shows up, play-action can free Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride for explosive catches.
San Francisco’s path is steadier. With Purdy out, expect a controlled plan. The 49ers have been strong on third down and force turnovers at a high rate. Christian McCaffrey should be the engine behind a patient, ball-control approach.
The line at 49ers -3.0 and total 45.0 fits a tight divisional game. Field position, sacks, and red-zone trips should swing it. The matchup favors San Francisco’s structure against Arizona’s shaky protection, but Murray’s legs can flip drives on a single play.
If you play this board, price discipline matters. Several props carry real juice, which raises variance and reduces margin. Consider injury volatility on any 49ers receiver markets, and be ready to pivot if late statuses change.
Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Points | 43 | #17 | 35 | #23 | |
Total Points Per Game | 21.5 | #18 | 17.5 | #9 | |
Total Touchdowns | 5 | #10 | 4 | #11 | |
Passing Touchdowns | 5 | #3 | 3 | #22 | |
Rushing Touchdowns | 0 | #27 | 1 | #8 | |
Other Touchdowns | 0 | #20 | 0 | #13 | |
Total Kicking Points | 13 | #18 | 11 | #27 | |
Total Two Point Conversions | 0 | #15 | 0 | #25 | |
Kick Extra Points | 4 | #15 | 2 | #28 |
Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Passing Yards | 532 | #5 | 511 | #6 | |
Net Passing Yards Per Game | 266 | #7 | 256 | #7 | 🏈 |
Passer Rating | 103 | #7 | 81.4 | #24 | |
Passing Attempts | 74 | #6 | 101 | #32 | |
Completions | 52 | #5 | 62 | #1 | |
Completion Percentage | 70.3 | #10 | 61.4 | #9 | |
Passing 1st downs | 30 | #2 | 31 | #31 | |
Passing 1st Down % | 63.8 | #8 | 66.0 | #28 | |
Longest Pass | 45 | #12 | 40 | #22 | |
Passing Fumbles Lost | 1 | #10 | 1 | #6 | |
Receiving Targets | 72 | #5 | 94 | #1 | |
Receptions | 52 | #5 | 62 | #32 | |
Receiving Yards After Catch | 256 | #4 | 235 | #24 | |
YAC Average | 4.9 | #14 | 3.8 | #5 |
Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rushing Yards | 196 | #22 | 156 | #7 | |
Rushing Yards Per Game | 98 | #22 | 78 | #27 | |
Rushing Attempts | 62 | #5 | 41 | #5 | 🏈 |
Yards Per Rush Attempt | 3.2 | #29 | 3.8 | #22 | |
Rushing 1st downs | 12 | #13 | 9 | #9 | |
20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 0 | #27 | 0 | #22 | |
Long Rushing | 13 | #28 | 18 | #23 | |
Rushing Fumbles | 0 | #27 | 0 | #22 | |
Rushing Fumbles Lost | 0 | #27 | 0 | #24 |