NFL - AFC Win Projections: Bills and Ravens Poised for Big Seasons

Look for an incredible collection of quarterbacking talent to define the top of the AFC, from perennial powers to upstarts.

 

AFC Win Projections – Best Bets

AFC Win Projections - Two MVP Candidates Power Lofty Totals

With preseason over, we’re taking a fresh look at the best AFC win total bets. Look for the Buffalo Bills to fulfill their promise as a Super Bowl contender. The Baltimore Ravens, meanwhile, are poised for a turnaround after an injury-plagued 2021 campaign. At the other end of the standings, fans of the Jacksonville Jaguars should prepare for yet another long season.

Buffalo Bills 

2021 Regular Season SU Record: 11-6-0

The Bills will open the regular season atop the NFL’s list of favorites, with expectations for a first-ever Super Bowl title. It’s with good reason. Led by quarterback Josh Allen, the Bills sport one of the NFL’s deepest, most dangerous, and well-balanced attacks. Whilst having only played 3 games over the preseason, they're already 7th when looking at points recorded per game. 

Points per Game (Preseason 22/23)

5

New York Giants

25

6

Atlanta Falcons

23.7

7

Buffalo Bills

23

8

Las Vegas Raiders

22.8

9

Chicago Bears

22.3

Allen enjoyed another dynamite season in 2021, racking up 4,407 passing yards and 36 passing touchdowns and running for another six scores. Despite some departures, Allen still has an impressive receiving corps at his disposal, led by Pro Bowl wideout Stefon Diggs, who led the league in catches two years ago. Allen also looks to have a steady backup in veteran Case Keenum, who steadily led the squad to their two preseason wins.

The Bills didn’t hesitate to bolster their top-ranked defense during the offseason. Among the new arrivals in the front seven is rock-solid linebacker DaQuan Jones and future Hall of Fame pass rusher Von Miller. Meanwhile, the Bills add first-round 

Pick (#23 overall) cornerback Kaiir Elam to a secondary that was already a strength and allowed just 12 passing TDs last season. 

Buffalo also benefits from a favorable schedule, which ranks middle of the pack in terms of difficulty. Put it all together, and our AFC Win Projection is for this team to challenge (or eclipse) the franchise record of 13 regular season wins as our Bills win totals prediction. 

AFC Win Projection - Recommended Bet

  • Buffalo Bills: Over 11.5 (-135) @ FanDuel

Baltimore Ravens

2021 Regular Season SU Record: 13-4-0

The Ravens’ streak of three straight double-digit win seasons came to a screeching halt in 2021, as the injury bug bit early and often. The Ravens ultimately succumbed, losing their last six games to close out the regular season and winding up in last place in the AFC North with an 8-9-0 record. 

Few teams came close to matching Baltimore’s epic run of injuries, which began in the preseason with top rusher JK Dobbins’ season-ending knee injury, continued just before Week 1 with severe injuries to top cornerback Marcus Peters and running back Gus Edwards, and peaked with the loss of superstar quarterback Lamar Jackson to an ankle injury that led to the late-season meltdown.

Thus far in 2022, however, Baltimore has shown no ill effects, winning all three of their August contests to extend their epic preseason run to 23 straight wins. With the Ravens enjoying a favorable schedule, especially away from home (they visit the Jets, Patriots, Giants, and Jaguars), 12 wins should be possible for the Ravens' win total, and a return to the top of the AFC North standings are within reach, giving us confidence in our AFC Win Projection.

AFC Win Projection - Recommended Bet

Jacksonville Jaguars

2021 Regular Season SU Record: 3-13-1

The Jaguars took home a huge haul from the 2022 NFL Draft. However, that may be the biggest win that Jags fans will enjoy this season. Winners of just three games last season, the Jags entered Draft Day with a pair of first-round selections, including #1 overall. They used those picks to bolster their defense, with pass rusher Travon Walker and linebacker Devin Lloyd as selections. 

Those additions should shore up a pass defense that ranked near the bottom of league stats in several categories, including sacks, interceptions, and yards per pass attempt. However, it remains unclear who will generate offense for this team, which lost all four of its preseason games and mustered just 12.8 points per game in the process. 

There’s plenty of time for quarterback Trevor Lawrence to fulfill the promise that came along with being last year’s first overall pick. However, it remains to be seen if the team’s offseason overhaul of the receiving corps that saw the additions of Christian Kirk and Zay Jones in free agency will bolster the win total. Even with some improvement, the odds of this team more than doubling the Jaguar's win total record from 2021 aren’t good and means we’re shooting low with our AFC Win Projection.

AFC Win Projection - Recommended Bet

Jacksonville Jaguars: Under 6.5 (-130) at BetMGM

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Conclusion 

That's our take on the best picks for AFC win projections, we've covered each individual NFL team in our full list of win totalsInterested in more football content? Be sure to read our guide: How To Bet on American Football or our take on which teams in the AFC can make the cut to the playoffs. Visit our odds comparison tool to compare the latest odds.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Can I bet on NFL win totals? 

The most common type of win total bet is the Over/Under. Most sportsbooks offer odds on teams winning Over or Under a specified number of games.

Who won the most NFL games in 2021? 

The Green Bay Packers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers each won 13 games in the 2021 regular season. Including postseason games, the LA Rams won the most games with 16 victories.

When should you bet on NFL win totals?

Win total odds are most favorable in the preseason (August/early September). However, with favorable odds come bigger risks for the bettor. Preseason doesn’t provide a proper opportunity to look at teams’ first-choice line-ups. Thus some people like to pick in the early season once they have had an initial read on form and before the odds have changed too much.

How to bet on NFL win totals?

You should consider several factors when deciding on your Over/Under bets. As a starting point, familiarize yourself with last season's SU Record. 

Secondly, have a look at the team’s current roster. Consider what trades they’ve made and what impact you think the draft picks will have. 

Thirdly, think about any injuries and suspensions and what effect these may have in any given game week.

Coaching changes should also be looked at.  How might the loss/acquisition of a new staff member impact performance? 

Also, consider last season’s matchups to identify games where teams may have been lucky/unlucky, which may affect the odds.  

Lastly, think about context. How do all the factors above also impact the team’s opponents, and how might this play out when they come up against one another? 


Written by Daniel Coyle.

Daniel has written professionally about sports for two decades and covered the sports betting beat for the past nine years. He is an expert EPL, MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, and UFC writer.  

His work has featured in various newspapers, magazines, and online media, including the Montreal Gazette, Globe & Mail, Faceoff.com, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, NESN, Sportsnet, Featurd, SB Nation, Oilers Nation, and The Nation.