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31 October 20263min read

NFL Anytime TD Picks Sunday, November 1, 2026: Best Play Zay Flowers +154 on a 12-Game Slate

NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday, November 1: Zay Flowers is the best play at +154 on a 12-game slate. Full model analysis and five picks inside.

Sunday, November 1, 2026 brings a full 12-game NFL slate. From the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills in the early window all the way through Philadelphia and Washington to close the day, there are 545 players on the anytime touchdown board across all matchups. I have five plays I want to be on. I am starting with my best play right at the top, and I will tell you exactly why I am on each one and why I walked away from some of the biggest names on this board.

Best Play: Zay Flowers +154 (Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills)

My best play on this entire Sunday slate is Zay Flowers of the Baltimore Ravens. The model gives him a 43.7% touchdown probability on a HIGH confidence tier. The market is sitting at +154, which works out to an implied probability of 39.4%. That is a gap of more than four percentage points in the model's favor, and it is the clearest value number on today's board. Wide receivers with red zone involvement are always in play on the anytime TD board, and when the model rates a player 4-plus points above what the market implies, that is the kind of spot I want to be in. I am taking Flowers at +154.

Now let me address the other top names in this game because the numbers are worth talking about. Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills carries a 57.4% model TD probability on a HIGH confidence tier. The market is -137, implying 57.8%. The model and the price are essentially the same number. There is no angle at -137 when the model does not support an edge over the market. James Cook is 56.2% HIGH tier at -132, which implies 56.8%. Same situation. And Derrick Henry of Baltimore sits at 53.2% HIGH tier, but the book is asking -217, implying 68.5%. The model has Henry at 53.2% and the market implies 68.5%. That is a 15-point gap working against you. Henry is one of the best goal-line backs in football, and the market knows it. That is exactly why I am not paying -217. Flowers at +154 is the spot in this game.

The Board's Top Overall Player: Jahmyr Gibbs at -233 (Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions)

The highest Model TD% on the entire 545-player board today belongs to Jahmyr Gibbs of the Detroit Lions, who checks in at 60.2% on a HIGH confidence tier. That is the strongest number on the full board. I am not backing him, and the reason is straightforward. The market has Gibbs at -233, which implies a 69.9% touchdown probability. The model says 60.2% and the book implies 69.9%. That is nearly 10 percentage points of gap working against you before you even place the bet. Running backs are the highest-probability touchdown scorers in the NFL, and books price them accordingly. In this case, the market is well ahead of what the model supports. Gibbs may score, but paying -233 against a 60.2% model number is not a bet I am making. The price is the problem, not the player.

Kyren Williams -135 (Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams)

I am on Kyren Williams of the Los Angeles Rams in the LA derby. The model gives Williams a 54.6% touchdown probability on a HIGH confidence tier. The market is at -135, implying 57.5%. The market is a bit above the model here, and I will own that. But the data behind this pick is strong enough to back it at this price. Williams has scored in 8 of his last 10 games and has 5 touchdowns in his last 7 outings. He carries a workload of 14 red zone targets and 80 red zone carries, and has scored in 5 of his last 7 games. The game script for this matchup heavily favors Los Angeles. The Rams carry a 70% win probability, with a market-implied final score of 25 to 19 in their favor. When a team is expected to win by that margin, they run the ball to close it out, and Williams is the back who gets those carries near the goal line. There is a note in the data that Williams went 0 for 1 in a single prior game against the Chargers. That is one game. I am not walking away from a 54.6% HIGH tier play over a single-game sample, especially against a defense that has been significantly depleted. Williams at -135.

Kenneth Walker III -147 (Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos)

Kenneth Walker III is my play in the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos game. The model gives him a 53.9% touchdown probability on a HIGH confidence tier. The market is at -147, implying 59.5%. The market is ahead of the model here, and the gap between 53.9% and 59.5% is real. I will not pretend otherwise. But Walker is the play, the confidence tier is HIGH, and the probability is strong. Lead running backs on teams that run the ball find the end zone at a high rate. That is what the model is reflecting at 53.9% HIGH. I am on Walker at -147.

Jonathan Taylor +106 (Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Jonathan Taylor is my play in the Colts and Jaguars game. He is the top-ranked player on the model board for that matchup at 45.9% on a HIGH confidence tier. The market is at +106, implying 48.5%. The market is slightly above the model, but +106 is a fair price for a player the model rates this highly with this much confidence. Lead running backs are the most reliable anytime touchdown producers in this league. Getting a 45.9% HIGH tier number at plus money is a price worth backing. I am on Taylor at +106.

Amon-Ra St. Brown +150 (Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions)

My fifth play is Amon-Ra St. Brown, also in the Vikings and Lions game. St. Brown sits at 41.1% on a HIGH confidence tier, and the market is offering +150, which implies 40.0%. The model is slightly over the market here, and that is the kind of number I look for on a receiver play. You are getting a player the model rates at 41.1% for essentially even-money pricing. Wide receivers with red zone roles carry real touchdown upside, and at +150 against a 41.1% HIGH tier number, this is a play I want to be on. And yes, Gibbs is the favorite in this same game at -233 and I walked away from him. St. Brown at +150 with a model slightly over the implied is a completely different conversation. I am on it.

Other High Numbers on the Board Today

There are several other HIGH tier names worth mentioning as context for this slate. Javonte Williams of Dallas sits at 57.6% HIGH tier, but the market is -217, implying 68.5%. I am not paying that kind of premium on any player on any slate. Bijan Robinson of Atlanta checks in at 54.7% HIGH tier, but -172 implies 63.3%. Chase Brown of Cincinnati is 54.4% HIGH tier at -133, implying 57.1%. Jaylen Warren of Pittsburgh is 52.7% HIGH tier at -109, implying 52.1%. That is one of the tighter model-to-market spreads on the full board. Bucky Irving of Tampa Bay is 47.5% HIGH tier at -101, implying 50.2%. These are all quality HIGH tier numbers. The ones I am not on today come down to price, not probability. The model is a tool. The price is the final filter.

First Touchdown Board

The First Touchdown board across today's 12 games is ranked by market price only. The model does not estimate first-touchdown probability. The anytime board numbers are shown alongside each player for reference. If you are looking at long-odds first-TD plays, those boards are available on each individual game page. My five plays today are all anytime TD picks, and the first-TD market operates under different variables that the model does not directly address.

A Word on Variance

My best play today, Zay Flowers, carries a 43.7% model probability. That means even my top pick on this board is expected to miss more often than it hits. The single highest probability on the full 545-player board, Jahmyr Gibbs at 60.2%, does not score 4 times out of 10 on average. Touchdowns are volatile outcomes. Red zone trips stall. Game scripts shift. Clock management changes who gets the ball. A 53% probability does not mean a player scores this Sunday, it means the model sees that outcome as likely over a large sample size. Back these plays at stakes you are comfortable with and understand that losing days happen even when the numbers point the right way.

That is my card for Sunday, November 1, 2026. Five plays, all HIGH confidence tier, all with clear reasoning from the board. The best play is Zay Flowers at +154 with a 43.7% model probability against a market that only implies 39.4%. That four-point gap is what I look for on this board. Kyren Williams at -135 has the supporting game-script and workload data to back it despite the market being slightly ahead. Kenneth Walker III and Jonathan Taylor are strong lead-back numbers at their prices. And Amon-Ra St. Brown at +150 with a model slightly over the implied is clean value at receiver odds. Shop your lines, get the best available price, and manage your stake size because no touchdown prop is ever a lock.

All picks are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

31 October 2026

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NFL Anytime TD Picks Sunday, November 1, 2026: Best Play Zay Flowers +154 on a 12-Game Slate

Best Play: Zay Flowers +154 (Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills)

The Board's Top Overall Player: Jahmyr Gibbs at -233 (Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions)

Kyren Williams -135 (Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams)

Kenneth Walker III -147 (Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos)

Jonathan Taylor +106 (Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Amon-Ra St. Brown +150 (Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions)

Other High Numbers on the Board Today

First Touchdown Board

A Word on Variance

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