Why Betting On Patrick Mahomes Will Lose You Money - NFL Passing Yards Predictions

Bye weeks throw the most passing yards odds, complicating things somewhat.  And what is sure to be a wild second half of the season adds to this. However, we have simplified it all for you. Stay away from Mahomes!

 NFL Most Passing Yards Odds - Recommended Bets

NFL Most Passing Yards Odds Expect More Changes

The NFL most passing yards odds for this year has to be a boon for the sportsbooks. The league sees several prominent passers on the rise, with one or two old-guard quarterbacks lurking. Add in some injuries, and NFL passing yards predictions should be a wild ride over the final months of the regular season.

The good news is that we are taking a different tack here. We are not recommending a certain AFC quarterback that figures to be among the frontrunners. The fun part is the rationale behind this bold choice. That is why NFL passing yards predictions figure to be quite an adventure.

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NFL Most Passing Yards Odds Table

To gauge NFL passing yards predictions, check out the table of top quarterbacks below (this is in terms of passing yards only). We can project a few things based on their remaining schedule and other variables.  

NFL Most Passing Yards Leaders Through Week 7



Passing Yards 

Passing Yards Per Game

Odds (Book)

Patrick Mahomes




+500 - Caesars 

Joe Burrow




+450 - PointsBet

Justin Herbert




+700 - PointsBet

Matt Ryan




+900 - Caesars 

Josh Allen




+250 - Caesars

Tom Brady




+1200 - PointsBet

Geno Smith




+3000 - PointsBet

Data taken from: pro-football-reference.com (Accurate as of 10/25/22) 

And there are plenty of variables to consider when it comes to forecasting which quarterback will wind up with the most yards after Week 18. NFL passing yards predictions seem like something out of finding needles in a haystack. 

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills 

Next Game: Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers: Sunday, October 30 at 8:20 pm ET on NBC

The Buffalo Bills are the favorite in the NFL most passing yards predictions for a reason. Look at Buffalo’s offense and how it is predicated on the pass. That passing game sets up the run quite well. It also does not hurt that Josh Allen has a cannon for an arm. The results have been stellar for the Bills QB as he leads the league, currently averaging 330 yards passing per game. 

The good news for Allen also is the simple fact of math. Everyone around him in the standings has played one more game. There are other factors too. Miami and the New York Jets are competitive in the division, which helps. Also, battling teams like Kansas City for the top seed in the AFC will keep Allen motivated to pile up those yards. 

NFL passing yards predictions are an adventure here because injuries can always happen. However, assuming health is equal, Allen has the greatest chance of leading the league in yards. His schedule features the Jets twice, New England twice, and Detroit. Even Cincinnati’s passing defense is not exactly the upper echelon. Only Chicago, in Week 16, has a passing defense ranked in the top 10 (third-ranked overall).

With Buffalo's offensive firepower, Allen can go over 5,000 yards for the first time in his NFL career. With receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, Buffalo has one scary offense (already 1000+ yards combined). Add in RB Devin Singletary and TE Dawson Knox, and Buffalo is a matchup nightmare.

NFL Most Passing Yards Odds: Recommended Bet

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Next game: Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Thursday, October 27 at 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime Video

With Tampa Bay off to a 3-4 start, this looks like the Kansas City Chiefs a couple of years ago. Everything was a mess, and everything was in doubt. Yet, like Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady is a constant. It is also why Mahomes is not recommended here. That is because Brady’s number has lengthened out to +1200. One has to shoot their shot.

Brady has just eight touchdowns passing through seven weeks (he had 43 last season). Brady had 40 in 2020. Does anyone think his “personal problems” are having an impact? That is highly doubtful. It boils down to the team around him woefully underperforming. When receivers are dropping wide-open touchdowns, that is rough.

Even though Tampa Bay has struggled mightily, Brady can never be counted out for NFL passing yards predictions. His QBR is a career-low 53.2 despite just throwing one interception this year. Also, he has thrown the ball nearly 300 times already. Brady is on pace to attempt more than 700 passes.

The expectation is that Brady’s yard per average (6.6 now) comes closer to the 7.5 he averaged in the first two years in Tampa Bay. Three of his best weeks came in a homestand a few weeks back, and the Buccaneers are home again for the next three weeks (Baltimore, L.A. Rams, Seattle). A more favorable second-half schedule and playing the NFC South help.

The only top-10 defense Brady faces is in San Francisco in Week 14. Can Brady average around 300 yards passing a week for the rest of the season? Brady can stay on the NFL passing yards predictions radar with this schedule.

NFL Most Passing Yards Odds: Recommended Bet

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

Next game: New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks: Sunday, October 30 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX

Everyone asked for a sleeper in the NFL most passing yards odds, so here we go. With quarterbacks like Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff in the mix, it seemed like they were not honestly sleepers. Going into this year, Geno Smith more than qualified as a sleeper. No one knew what he would do in Seattle’s offense or that he would start this many games.

Smith has not even averaged 250 yards per game passing, which hurts a little bit in rankings and in most NFL passing yards predictions. However, the quarterback has 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions. He puts his team in a position to win and has some advantageous matchups. It does not hurt that Smith is completing 73.5% of his passes and averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.

The thought is that Smith could pile up some yards as the Seahawks attempt to stay in the fight for a wildcard spot. Even the NFC West crown is not out of bounds.

Now, Smith faces several significant hurdles, playing the Los Angeles Rams twice and San Francisco one more time. With D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett (886 yards combined) catching the ball, the Seahawks’ signal-caller has a slight longshot at moving up the passing ranks. Seattle has a top-10 offense in terms of yards per attempt (seventh). If they get the number of plays in the second half, Smith could be up in the NFL passing yards predictions.

NFL Most Passing Yards Odds: Recommended Bet

Why Not Patrick Mahomes?

Some may inquire, why not Patrick Mahomes? The Kansas City quarterback has some excellent numbers and metrics for the Chiefs. He ranks second in yards per attempt (8.2) and yards per game (308.4), but here is the why.

At the +400 to +500 range, his value is not quite there (currently, he is +400 at PointsBet). That is why pulling the trigger on Joe Burrow is also hard (+450 at PointsBet). If the numbers see a little lengthening, to say, +600 to +700, then there is room to move. Until then, there is not. It is a hard stance to take but hear us out.

He only went over 5,000 yards once, and that was in 2018. Even with the 17th game last season, Mahomes was just under 4,900 yards. That is about where he likely winds up this year too. The production will inevitably dip just a hair. The touchdowns may not, which is good news for those with his touchdown prop.

After Week 10, Mahomes only topped 300 yards once last season. Anything close to that drop is enough to torpedo his most passing yards odds. Tread carefully here and only risk if a bit more value is offered. 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Who will have the most passing yards in the NFL in 2022?

Through seven weeks, there are less than 200 total yards separating the quarterback with the most passing yards from the quarterback with the sixth-most passing yards. However, Buffalo’s Josh Allen is poised to have the most passing yards in 2022. He fell behind with the Bills having a bye in Week 7 but is leading the league with 330 passing yards per game. That’s a big gap ahead of Patrick Mahomes, who is second with 308 passing yards per game.

Who has the most passing yards in the NFL this season?

After seven weeks, Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in passing yards with 2,159. Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Matt Ryan are the only other quarterbacks with at least 2,000 passing yards right now. However, Josh Allen leads all quarterbacks with an average of 330 passing yards per game. He fell behind the others with the Bills having a bye in Week 7.

Bottom Line

Quite a few other names were passed up on this NFL Most Passing Yards Odds list, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow to name but two. Our problem with them are simple. These are quarterbacks who take a beating. Honestly, they may not play all 17 games or at 100%.

This NFL passing yards predictions race figures to be quite the unpredictable one. Taking Josh Allen, Tom Brady, and even Geno Smith gives us some leeway as we stay away from quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, who take a few too many risks. 

If you're interested in more NFL content, be sure to read our guide: How To Bet on American Football, and visit our odds comparison tool to compare the latest odds.


Written by Chris Wassel

Chris is an experienced sports betting writer who loves sports irrationally. From NHL to NASCAR to March Madness, he has covered it all, including a couple of Stanley Cups, several NHL Drafts, and award shows.  

He is a veteran writer with over 30 years of fantasy hockey experience contributing to several sports books and countless publications such as USA Today, The Hockey News, and Sportsnet.