NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Finding Value from the Start

NFL Week 1 Predictions - Recommended Bets

• Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals: Bengals -6.5, -106 at FanDuel 
• Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals: Cardinals +6, -107 at PointsBet 
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys: OVER 51, -107 at PointsBet

NFL Week 1 Odds - Bengals, Chiefs, and Buccaneers Top List of Favorites

Fresh off a solid preseason performance, Mitchell Trubisky gets the starting nod for the Steelers against the Bengals on Sunday afternoon. With Joe Burrow back leading the Bengals attack, Pittsburgh is a near-touchdown underdog in the NFL Week 1 odds. 

After signing a five-year, $230.5 million mega-deal, Kyler Murray leads the Cardinals into a huge home clash versus the Kansas City Chiefs. Can Kyler get off to a strong start amid increased expectations? And, on Sunday night, we’re treated to a replay of last season’s opening week thriller between the Cowboys and Buccaneers. 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday, September 11 at 1 pm ET on CBS

The great challenge facing the Steelers entering the 2022 season is how to fill the void left by the retirement of longtime QB Ben Roethlisberger. While Kenny Pickett put up a whale of a fight in the preseason, Mitchell Trubisky, who completed 24 out of 34 passes for 283 yards and two touchdowns, was ultimately named the starter.

The biggest concern for the Steelers in these NFL Week 1 predictions lies at the line of scrimmage, where they can’t stop the run (dead last in rushing yards and yards allowed per rush in 2021).  With one of the league’s worst offensive lines, they will struggle to create time and opportunities for Trubisky and the running backs. Furthermore, the NFL Week 1 Odds suggest that there are questions about the pass defense, particularly on first down, where the Steelers are fifth-worst in the NFL in yards allowed per first down completion (12) since 2020.

The Bengals, meanwhile, are 6.5-point home favorites in the NFL Week 1 odds. The defending AFC champs are trying to climb the final rung of the NFL ladder after falling to the Rams, 23-20, in Super Bowl 56. Joe Burrow throwing to Ja’marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and running back Joe Mixon is sure to be deadly for opposing defenses. However, the Bengals will want to see some improvement in the ground game, where Mixon, despite rushing for 1201 yards, averaged just 4.1 yards per carry.

Despite that, given the Steelers’ questions on both sides of the ball, the Bengals are a safe pick in the NFL Week 1 Odds to win by at least a touchdown. Even in a rivalry game, Burrow should be able to get going early and often, which will set up the run and clear the way for a comfortable win. 

NFL Week 1 Prediction:

• Bengals -6.5, -106 at FanDuel

Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, September 11 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX 

Looking at the NFL Week 1 match-ups, it’s tough not to get excited by the idea of two mobile quarterbacks squaring off on a Sunday afternoon. And, for the Chiefs and Cardinals, this game may have more meaning than the usual season opener.

The Chiefs will indeed have a sour taste left in their mouths after blowing a double-digit lead at home in last season’s AFC Championship Game against the Bengals, with Patrick Mahomes and company unable to muster any offense in the second half. 

With superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who racked up 50 touchdowns in five seasons, gone (traded to the Miami Dolphins), K.C.’s got an added challenge. However, Mahomes still has seven-time Pro-Bowl tight end Travis Kelce and a re-tooled (and potentially pretty deep) receiving corps, which should still add up to a nightmare for opposing defenses.

Last season, Kansas City had a bend-but-don’t-break defense, allowing the eighth-fewest points but finishing 27th in yards allowed. Meanwhile, the Cardinals ranked 11th in both categories but fell to 18th in yards yielded over their tough second half of the year, while still allowing the sixth-fewest points to be given up.

Arizona started 10-2 last year behind a healthy Kyler Murray. However, once injuries took their toll, both the offense and the defense suffered, and the Cards lost five of their final six regular-season games and were blown out by the Rams in Los Angeles in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury knows this team cannot carry that over into the 2022 season.

When healthy, the Cardinals are easily a top ten offense in the NFL. Murray makes electric plays, but they are a fast-starting team. Arizona scored 39% of their drives last season in the first quarter, ranking third in the league. Looking at the NFL Week 1 odds, the Cards are a near-touchdown underdog at home in the opener. Even with star wideout, DeAndre Hopkins suspended to start the season, look for Murray to connect with former college teammate Marquise “Hollywood'' Brown and for the Cardinals to start strong and keep this game within six points or less on Sunday. This is our most confident NFL Week 1 prediction.

NFL Week 1 Prediction:

• Cardinals +6, -107 at FanDuel

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, September 11 at 8:20 pm ET on NBC 

In analyzing the matchups for these NFL Week 1 predictions, Sunday night’s showdown between the Buccaneers and Cowboys is the most intriguing. It’s not tough to see why. I mean, Tom Brady going up against “America’s Team” on national television? For those who don’t remember last year’s season opener, Dallas went into Tampa Bay and nearly surprised the then-defending Super Bowl champions, falling by a 31-29 score.

While we know that preseason games don’t mean much, the Cowboys’ major concerns at wide receiver and offensive line have been out in the open. However, despite the loss of James Washington for 6-10 weeks with a broken foot, CeeDe Lamb’s toe issue, and OT Tyron Smith (out for up to 12 weeks), the ‘Boys have remained 2.5-point home underdogs in the NFL Week 1 odds.

In the face of all that bad news, Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott are healthy. If any tandem can carry an offense at home, it’s this pair. Dallas knows it must get off to a good start against a team that gave up a ton of yards against them last year. Dak Prescott threw for nearly 400 yards, and he may have to do that again if the Cowboys are going to look like the team that scored a league-best 530 points last season. 

Much of the same can be said for Brady and a Tampa offense that also topped 500 points last year (512). Brady led the NFL’s second-ranked offense with an NFL-best 5,319 yards and 43 touchdowns on 719 attempts. It’s safe to expect Brady and the Bucs to air it out again. 

These are two teams that can put up points. As one of our top NFL Week 1 predictions, we expect these two star-studded teams to light up the scoreboard to the tune of at least 52 points. 

NFL Week 1 Prediction:

• OVER 51.0, -107 at PointsBet

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Conclusion

The 32 training camps are heading into NFL week one, expectations are high, who will crumble at the first hurdler? If you're interested in more football content, be sure to read our guide: How To Bet on American Football, and visit our odds comparison tool to compare the latest NFL Week 1 odds.

Our next preview looking at the best NFL week 2 predictions and odds are now available. 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

When is Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season? 

Week 1 of the NFL season starts on Thursday, September, 8 when the Buffalo Bills play at the Los Angeles Rams. The week concludes on Monday, September 12, with the Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks.

What are the odds for NFL Week 1?

All 32 NFL teams play in Week 1 of the NFL. The latest odds can be found at https://oddsindex.com/betting-odds. 

Written by Chris Wassel.

Chris is an experienced sports betting writer who loves sports irrationally. He has covered everything from NHL to NASCAR to March Madness, including a couple of Stanley Cups, several NHL Drafts, and award shows.   

He is a veteran writer with over 30 years of fantasy hockey experience, contributing to several sports books and countless publications such as USA Today, The Hockey News, and Sportsnet.