2022 has been an interesting season for pitching, especially in the National League. Household names like Kershaw, deGrom, Strasburg, Nola, and Hendricks have, for one reason or another, faded into the background, leaving a group of younger, less-heralded pitchers to compete for the award. That makes predicting the Cy Young 2022 winner a bit more challenging. Let’s take a closer look at some of the members of this new generation, their Cy Young odds, and the best bet to take home the award.
Based on current NL Cy Young odds, the Miami Marlins ace is the runaway favorite for the award. Through 24 starts, Alcantara is rocking an NL-best 1.92 ERA and (among pitchers) 6.8 Baseball-Reference WAR and (by some margin) Win Probability Added, and ranks in the top five in the league in WHIP, opponents’ average, and strikeouts. This is even more impressive because he’s thrown more innings - as of August 18, 173, or an almost-unheard-of 7+ per start - more than any other NL pitcher.
Playing for the Marlins could hurt Alcantara, as poor run support has undoubtedly cost him some wins, and the team currently sits 23 games out of first place in the NL East with a 52-65 record. Alcantara is rightfully favored to capture the award, but given this, and with the field of candidates behind him, he doesn’t have the NL Cy Young in the bag just yet.
The Brewers ace is following up his 2021 Cy Young season with another standout performance this year. The 27-year-old Burnes is a significant player for those making Cy Young predictions in 2022, as he’s comfortably leading the National League in strikeouts and is a virtual lock to finish top-5 in ERA, WHIP, and opponent’s batting average. Like Alcantara, a lack of wins could end up hurting Burnes, who has a record of just 8-5 as of August 18, though his NL Cy Young odds suggest that bettors and voters aren’t as concerned as the season enters its stretch run.
Fried has been the unquestioned leader of Atlanta’s rotation and is now a bonafide ace. The lefty has built upon an impressive 2021 season, during which he had 14 wins and a 3.04 ERA, with ten wins and a 2.60 ERA over his first 22 starts of 2022. However, anyone making NL Cy Young Award predictions should pause at his lack of strikeouts (3 K’s/9 innings fewer than Burnes). Also likely to hurt Fried’s chances is a recent trip to the concussion IL (at the time of writing, he’s not yet returned but is apparently close) which cuts into his chances to add to his counting stats.
Despite the Giants’ struggles, Rodon should be taken seriously when making Cy Young predictions in 2022. Though his ERA and WHIP lag behind the Cy Young contenders, Rodon has already racked up 11 wins and is a solid bet to finish top-three in the NL in strikeouts. His NL Cy Young odds are still a little long - the Giants’ poor record and second-half swoon do him no favors - but he could make a late charge and deserves some consideration.
Neither future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw nor 2021 ace Walker Beuhler are anywhere to be found in the race for the 2022 Cy Young. Instead, Gonsolin is the Dodgers’ representative for the award. Gonsolin has taken the torch as the ace of the Dodgers’ rotation, with a sparkling 15-1 record (he leads the NL in wins) through 21 starts while leading the league in WHIP and opponents’ batting average and ranking second in ERA.
The only strike against Gonsolin’s case is his lack of strikeouts (just 113 in 123.1 innings pitched, or 8.2 per 9 innings). However, given his high standing in every other meaningful category and the utter dominance of the Dodgers, we predict (despite some long Cy Young odds) that he’ll win the NL’s Cy Young Award in 2022.
Corbin Burnes of the Milwaukee Brewers won the NL Cy Young Award in 2021. He narrowly beat Zack Wheeler of the Philadelphia Phillies and Max Scherzer of the Dodgers in a tight vote. Another Brewers pitcher, Brandon Woodruff, finished fifth.
Award winners are announced at the end of the season, about two weeks after the conclusion of the World Series, typically on consecutive days, in the following order:
The date of the 2022 NL Cy Young Award announcement has yet to be confirmed.
Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins is the sportsbook’s favorite. However, we predict the NL CY Young 2022 winner will be Tony Gonsolin of the Dodgers, on account of the fact he is at or close to the top in every category and pitches for a high-profile contender.
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