Premier League Predictions Week 3: Previews, Best Bets, and Analysis

Premier League Predictions Week 3: Recommended Bets

• Arsenal three-way handicap (-1), +120 at FanDuel
• Manchester City to win to nil, +140 at Caesars
• Liverpool to win and OVER 3.5 goals, +221 at FanDuel

Contrasting Start For Top Clubs

Just two weeks in, the 2022-23 Premier League season has tossed up its share of surprises and provided us with plenty to contemplate. 

Through two gamedays, two sides - favorites Manchester City and a reemergent Arsenal - have tallied a maximum of six points. Fellow contenders Chelsea, Tottenham, and especially Liverpool, are not yet in top gear but have the ability and experience to find top form before long. Meanwhile, each of the three newly-promoted teams has gained confidence by already earning at least two points. 

At the bottom of the table, and the only clubs yet to register a point, are Everton (who struggle to be an attacking threat after selling their top goalscorer and losing their other central striker to yet another injury), West Ham (perhaps a surprise, but with a defense decimated by injuries and yet to register a goal at the other end), and, at rock bottom, already-embattled Erik ten Hag's Manchester United (who it seems none of the top players now want to play for).

The first two weekends have given us glimpses of early season form and things to consider as we make Premier League predictions in Week 3 and beyond. It certainly won’t be boring! Having pored over the best EPL week 3 odds, here are our top three picks.

Premier League Predictions Week 3

Arsenal @ Bournemouth

Saturday, August 20 at 12:30 pm ET

Bournemouth will be delighted with three points from their first two games back in the Premier League, especially as EPL odds tell us they are the favorite for relegation. While it would be crazy to make any Premier League predictions from last week’s 4-0 loss against Man City (given the gap in class between City and the rest of the league), Bournemouth will be playing with fire all season unless they can exert some control over games.

It was the same story in their season-opener. The Cherries held the ball for barely a third of the game, allowed 15 shots, 479 completed passes from 571 attempts, and 82 dangerous attacks. On the other hand, they only completed 211 passes and had 33 dangerous attacks. The fact that it worked out in a 2-0 victory over Aston Villa is a positive, but this is not sustainable in the Premier League. 

Arsenal, meanwhile, is flying high, with six points and six goals from two games and, apparently, a superstar striker in Gabriel Jesus, who struck twice against Leicester and had at least two excellent chances to complete a hat trick. Though Arsenal has had only 52% possession through two games, they’ve looked more deliberate and dangerous than Gunners teams of the recent past.

If Bournemouth can't stop Arsenal from setting up shop in their half, it's tough to see this ending as anything other than a comfortable Arsenal win. We’ve seen nothing from Bournemouth to suggest that they’re up to that task. Thus, when browsing the EPL week 3 odds, Arsenal with a one-goal handicap looks particularly enticing.

Premier League Prediction Week 3: Recommended Bet

• Arsenal three-way handicap (-1), +120 at FanDuel

Manchester City @ Newcastle United

Sunday, August 21 at 11:30 am ET

Four points, though not unfair, is a bit of a flattering return for Newcastle through two games. In their season opener at St. James's Park against Nottingham Forest, Newcastle were dominant, with 62% possession, 23 shots (10 on target), and a whopping 100 dangerous attacks. The biggest questions in the aftermath of that game were how didn’t the Magpies score until nearly the hour mark, and how did they only wind up putting two in the net?  This is hardly the ruthlessness of a team that EPL odds tell us will finish in the top six.

Last week at the Amex was an entirely different story, as Brighton dominated with 13 shots, seven on goal, and 66 dangerous attacks. Newcastle were limited to just four shots, only one of which was on target. However, in a second straight inexplicable scoreline, Newcastle held the Seagulls goalless and came away with a hard-earned, if not entirely deserved, point.

This week, Newcastle will be afforded no such margin for error, as paying its annual visit to St. James's Park is the juggernaut that is Man City. Through two games Man City have been stellar, scoring six goals without conceding, controlling possession to the tune of nearly 70%, and allowing West Ham and Bournemouth a total of nine shots (just two on target) in 180 minutes of action. 

Terrifyingly, City have yet to find their stride in attack, having managed “just” 33 shots, nine shots on target, and 137 dangerous attacks in those two outings. Looking at the Week 3 EPL odds, the expectation will be for Erling Haaland, Kevin De Bruyne, Riyad Mahrez, and Co. to put some blemishes on Newcastle’s spotless “goals against” column while shutting up shop.

Premier League Prediction Week 3: Recommended Bet

• Manchester City to win to nil, +140 at Caesars

Liverpool @ Manchester United

Monday, August 22 at 3:00 p.m. ET

This match defies traditional analysis. Sure we can break down Manchester United's gruesome season statistics to date - 30 shots conceded, 12 on target, resulting in six goals allowed in their first two games, despite having 65% possession.  That, and only a single goal scored despite 203 attacks, 130 dangerous attacks, and nine shots on goal in 180 minutes. We can run down the roster and incredulously wonder how this team is getting so little from such a nominally deep and talented squad. The fact is, though - and we don't use the term lightly - this is a club not only in full-blown crisis, it’s one that, at the moment, looks broken, with no one in the building with a sense for which way is up.

Now coming to town are arch rivals, Liverpool. They have had their own tough start to the season, having to battle for a 2-2 tie against newly-promoted Fulham before going down to 10 men after Darwin Núñez’s red card and fighting for more than half an hour to salvage a 1-1 scoreline at home against Crystal Palace. 

While Man United will take some comfort in Liverpool’s slow start and perhaps see this as an opportunity, the Merseysideiders surely understand the gravity of the situation in which they already find themselves when it comes to the title fight, trailing Man City by four points after only two games. Liverpool will be eyeing Monday night as an opportunity to set things right emphatically. That said, Liverpool has had their shaky moments in defense over the first couple of matches. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a theoretically loaded United side flash its ability for stretches and carve out some chances - and coax one through the sticks. 

Liverpool, meanwhile, will be without a recognized striker. Under most circumstances, particularly in a heated rivalry like this, that could mean a conservative game plan aimed at grinding out a narrow victory. However, with the talent still on hand and the shortage of confidence, organization, and quality in the United defense, Jurgen Klopp’s side should still find ample opportunity to carve out plenty of chances.

We expect a Liverpool win, with at least four goals in the match.

Premier League Prediction Week 3: Recommended Bet

• Liverpool to win and OVER 3.5 goals, +221 @ FanDuel

Other Fixtures: EPL Week 3 Odds

Frequently Asked Question (FAQ):

How do you bet on EPL games in the United States?

Sportsbooks such as FanDuel, Caesars, PointsBet, BetMGM, and Betrivers offer a variety of EPL odds for games. Bettors can wager on whether it will be a home or away win or a tie. Correct score bets and Over/Under a defined number of goals are also available.

Additionally, player bets are available too. You can pick who will score, if that will be the first or last goal of the game, or if any player will assist a goal.

There really are a lot of different ways to make Premier League predictions.

Conclusion

Some teams are pulling away from the pack, we'll need to see some teams turn it around if they want a fighting chance this season. Our EPL predictions for week 3 look at what's in store for the heavy hitters in this upcoming gameday. If you're looking for more soccer content, read our guide: How To Bet on Soccer, and visit our odds comparison tool to compare the latest odds.