Premier League Predictions Week 6 : Previews, Best Bets, and Analysis

The Premier League is in full swing! Our EPL Week 6 predictions look at the Merseyside Derby and differing degrees of difficulty for the Manchester clubs.

Premier League Week 6 Predictions: Recommended Bets

Top of the Table Starting to Look (Mostly) Like We Expected

Just a month in, the 2022-23 Premier League season has tossed up its share of surprises, provided us with plenty to contemplate, and made Premier League week 6 predictions very interesting!

After five games, we’re left with a single side, Mikel Arteta’s resurgent Arsenal, that’s yet to drop a point. Fellow contenders (and preseason favorites) Manchester City, are in second and two points back (on 13 points) thanks to a thrilling draw at Newcastle two weeks ago.  The Gunners’ North London, rivals Tottenham (11 points), and early season upstarts Brighton (10 points) are also in double digits.

Rounding out the top six are another pair of rivals, suddenly competent (and defensively stout) Manchester United, who’ve won three straight for their nine points, and injury-ravaged (but still capable of dishing out a 9-0 thrashing and salvaging a comeback win, all in four days) Liverpool. Meanwhile, the final member of the Premier League’s traditional “top six,” Chelsea, remains far from top gear, with losses in two of their last three games and just six goals from their five matches. To address that issue, the Blues are betting that the deadline day signing and return to London of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang won’t dull his razor-sharpness in front of goal.

No club is pointless, but a high-profile quartet faces each after a nightmare start to their campaign. Leicester is bottom of the pile with a single point, with Aston Villa, Wolves, and Everton just ahead on three points. It is worth noting, though, that Wolves (draws in three of four) and Everton (draws in three straight) seem to have found a knack for consistently securing results (underwhelming, but whatever) and may not be long for the foot of the table.

This first month has given us plenty to consider as we make Premier League predictions for Week 6 and beyond! Having pored over the best EPL week 6 odds, here are our top three picks.

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Premier League Week 6 Predictions 

Liverpool @ Everton

Saturday, September 3 at 7:30 am ET on USA

Everton began the season in the same troubling form that had them fighting relegation last season, with consecutive losses to Chelsea (this looks worse in hindsight) and fellow strugglers Aston Villa. They’ve since righted the ship to a degree and at least began accumulating points, with three consecutive 1-1 draws to separate them by the slimmest of margins (goal scored/goal difference) from the bottom three. 

Of course, against Nottingham Forest, Brentford, and Leeds, a club the size of Everton (with the resources it has dedicated to its squad) would like to have come away with at least one victory. However, progress doesn’t offer a menu from which we can simply order, and the Toffees will have to find encouragement from what they have achieved so far.

Unfortunately, EPL week 6 brings the 292nd visit to Goodison Park by Merseyside rivals Liverpool. Jürgen Klopp’s crew comes into this game in an interesting spot. On the one hand, wins in just two of their first five games, a gap of seven points to the top of the table, and five to second place Man City can only be seen as a disaster. That Liverpool must attack these deficits with their midfield decimated by injuries (and, bizarrely, Arthur Melo being parachuted in for support) doesn’t inspire warm-fuzzies either.

At the same time, on the heels of their gutting gameday 3 defeat at Old Trafford, Klopp’s men have responded spectacularly, first with a devastating 9-0 destruction of Bournemouth, followed by a 2-1 comeback win at home over a feisty and resurgent Newcastle squad. And, even with the midfield battered and bruised, this team still features Luis Díaz, Roberto Firmino, Virgil van Dijk, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Darwin Núñez, and, of course, Mo Salah.

Everton would be delighted to come away with a fourth consecutive draw on Saturday.  They’ve won precisely one of their last 26 meetings with Liverpool (12 draws, 13 losses) and managed just eight draws and three defeats from their previous 11 home derby meetings.

As they always are, emotions will be running high at Goodison Park. Thus, a match Klopp might otherwise have managed for a “boring and businesslike” win will be kicked up a notch. Just how swashbuckling Liverpool will remain to be seen. However, with Everton at home, Liverpool’s defensive difficulties, and the Reds’ short-handedness in midfield, expect a Liverpool victory in EPL week 6, but with a fired-up Toffees side (and crowd) getting on the scoreboard.

Premier League Week 6 Prediction - Recommended Bet

Manchester City @ Aston Villa

Saturday, September 9 at 12:30 pm ET on NBC

Sometimes, a traditionally “bigger” club gets off to a rough start - say, three points from five matches - and the natural inclination is to chalk it up to bad luck and bank on them rebounding to, at least, “unremarkable competence.” In other cases, that club is showing us precisely who and what they’re going to be over the course of a season and leaving it up to us to resist our blind faith in history. Thus far, Aston Villa has us fooled as to what to expect.

Steven Gerrard's Villa will probably find enough of a groove at points of the calendar to distance themselves from the drop zone comfortably. But, for now, three points seem a fair yield as we reach EPL week 6. On the one hand, in their 2-0 loss to Bournemouth in the opener and a recent 1-0 loss to West Ham (as well as their lone win, 2-1 over Everton), Villa has arguably been the better side and can reasonably claim to “deserve” more than they’ve gotten. On the other, Villa has faced two sides with the quality and commitment to aggressiveness to make them pay for not taking advantage of their superiority. Against Crystal Palace on August 20, they surrendered 17 shots (nine on target) in a 3-1 loss. More recently, on August 31, they allowed 22 shots (another nine of which were on target) to Arsenal in a 2-1 loss that had no business being as close as it was. 

If we can take anything from these results, it's that against sides that (to put it politely) struggle with self-esteem in attack; Villa is capable of holding their own. However, this team is out of depth against assured, aggressive opposition, even if the scoreline doesn't fully reflect it.

Enter Man City. Since a frustrating 3-3 draw at St. James's Park, City have registered a pair of home wins, over Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest, in which they've struck a combined ten times while conceding just twice. New all-universe striker Erling Haaland has hit a hat trick in each contest. By doing so in only five games, he’s not only become the fastest player in Premier League history to reach two hat tricks but done so by an obscene margin. Demba Ba, next on the list, required 21 games to achieve the same.

Scoring a hat-trick in consecutive games should not be lost on fans either. There is an elite club of 5 other players who have managed such a feat. If the names are a sign of things to come then Haaland could be a very scary prospect. 

Players to Score Consecutive Hat-tricks 

Erling Haaland 

Harry Kane

Wayne Rooney

Didier Drogba

Ian Wright

Les Ferdinand

Given the profile of the teams that have comprehensively dominated Villa in these early matches and the fact that Man City is probably the best of precisely that type of team in the world (with the world's best #9 gobbling up goals at a disgusting rate), it's tough to see anything but an absolute Premier League Week 6 hammering here as our pick.

Premier League Week 6 Prediction - Recommended Bet

  • Manchester City to win to nil, +135 at Caesars
  • For extra juice, in case City puts up a truly grotesque number and insurance in case Villa gets on the board, Manchester City to win and 5+ goals, +370 at FanDuel

Arsenal @ Manchester United

Sunday, September 9 at 11:30 am ET on USA

When the eyes of the world were last on Man United, the sky was falling. The attack lacked confidence, the defense lacked grit, a fan revolt seemed imminent, and Erik ten Hag’s future was already in question just two games into his tenure.

Since that gameday 3 showdown with Liverpool, United have strung together another two wins.  Both were away-from-home 1-0 victories, flattering the Red Devils. This is particularly true of the August 27 victory away at Southampton, in which United rode a 55th-minute Bruno Fernandes goal to win, despite allowing 17 shots (five on target) and a staggering 86 dangerous attacks, compared to delivering just 39 of their own.

The following week, at the King Power against bottom-of-the-table Leicester City, was better but hardly emphatic. Man United was outshot 10-9, managed the same two shots on target as Leicester, and allowed a whopping 115 attacks (they had 109 themselves, though they did wind up with a 50-40 “dangerous attacks” edge). This time, only a 23rd-minute Jaden Sancho goal separated them from disappointment. 

In racking up five wins from five games, Arsenal reaches EPL week 6, scoring 13 goals while, more impressively, conceding just four. It is worth mentioning that after netting nine in their first three (against Crystal Palace, Leicester, and Bournemouth), Arsenal's last two victories (at home against Fulham and Aston Villa) have been by 2-1 score lines that have not reflected the extent to which Arsenal have controlled the games.

Regarding Premier League Week 6 predictions, this meeting with Man United at Old Trafford is a quintessential “could go either way” match for each side. Arsenal may continue to create chances and put shots on target while continuing to convert at a subpar rate and get picked off by the Red Devils. More likely, however, is that Man United's run of flattering results hits a Gabriel-shaped stumbling block. 

This game should offer plenty of opportunities for each side and, with a twist here or there, could turn into a shootout. In all likelihood, however, the better side (Arsenal), with Gabriels Jesus and Martinelli, will make a bit more of their chances and come away 2-1 or 3-1 winners.

Premier League Week 6 Prediction - Recommended Bet

Other Fixtures: EPL Week 6 Odds

 

Moneyline

Sportsbook

Brentford

+115

FanDuel

Draw

+250

Leeds United

+240

 

Moneyline

Sportsbook

Newcastle

+105

PlaySugarHouse

Draw

+250

Crystal Palace

+260

 

Moneyline

Sportsbook

Nottingham Forest

+105

PlaySugarHouse

Draw

+250

AFC Bournemouth

+285

 

Moneyline

Sportsbook

Tottenham Hotspur

-220

FanDuel

Draw

+360

Fulham

+600

 

Moneyline

Sportsbook

Wolves

+120

PlaySugarHouse

Draw

+240

Southampton

+245

 

Moneyline

Sportsbook

Brighton

-125

FanDuel

Draw

+250

Leicester

+360

 

Conclusion

Will Haaland continue his rampage heading into week 6? Our EPL predictions for week 6 look at what's in store for the heavy hitters in this upcoming gameday. If you're looking for more soccer content, read our guide: How To Bet on Soccer, and visit our odds comparison tool to compare the latest odds.

 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Where can I watch Liverpool vs Everton?

You can watch Liverpool @ Everton on Saturday, September 3 at 7:30 am ET on USA Network.

When was the last time Everton beat Liverpool?

Everton last beat Liverpool on February 20, 2021. Everton won the EPL game 2-0 at Anfield, with goals from Richarlison and Gylfi Sigurdsson.

 

Written by Emile Avanessian. 

Emile is a one-time banker turned sports writer from the United States, now living in Barcelona, Spain. He has primarily written on the NBA and NFL for over 10 years but is also extremely knowledgeable about the EPL, college basketball, and football.    

He currently also writes for Squawka, and his work has been published in The Los Angeles Times, Yahoo Sports, SI.com, and on ESPN.