Premier League Week 13 Odds: Expert Picks to Boost your Bankroll

Premier League Week 13 Picks

• Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool: Liverpool to keep a clean sheet, -110 at PointsBet
• Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool: Liverpool: -2, +117 at BetRivers
• Chelsea vs. Manchester United: Both teams to score, -140 at Caesars
• Chelsea vs. Manchester United: Under 2.5 goals, -112 at FanDuel
• Southampton vs. Arsenal: Gabriel Martinelli to score, +190 at FanDuel
• Southampton vs. Arsenal: Arsenal to score over 2.5 goals, +175 at Caesars

Setbacks for the Big Hitters

We enter our preview of the Premier League Week 13 Odds with the table pretty much untouched at both ends. That said, it could have been a different story, with Manchester City and Arsenal having rearranged fixtures for a later date, giving Tottenham a great chance to advance over the Citizens. Pep Guardiola will have Erik Ten Hag to thank here after a fantastic display from the reds, with goals from Fred and Fernandes clinching the three points. At the time of writing, sportsbooks have City as the favorite to win the Premier League (76.92%), yet there is still some way to go. 

Perhaps the week’s biggest surprise was that we only witnessed a total of 10 goals. For those viewing on October 19th, there were abstained periods where the action was limited. Even so, you would’ve seen great returns for those who backed the favorites. For those backing Liverpool, luck was certainly on your side. A saved Bowen penalty and a superb block against Soucek meant they walked away unscathed - and with a clean sheet! We feel this is not the last we are potentially talking about their defensive woes. 

The picture at the bottom of the table is still the same, with Wolves, Leicester and Nottingham Forest occupying those relegation spots. Leicester walked away with their second win of the season against Leeds United on Thursday. This will be an important turning point in their season if they turn this around. On the other hand, alarms should be ringing within the Leeds camp. Losses to Leicester draw to Aston Villa, and other woeful performances can only give Jesse Marsch flashbacks to the disjointed finish last season. 

Premier League Week 13 Odds and Predictions

Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool Predictions

Liverpool @ Nottingham Forest, Saturday, October 22 at 7:30 am ET

Jurgen Klopp will complain about this schedule having played midweek. Still, these are the cards he has been dealt. On paper, there is no better fixture than playing Nottingham Forest, a team sitting in the relegation zone with the lowest goal difference in the league (-16). We’ve mentioned having concerns about their defense, but they have now kept two clean sheets in a row, despite still conceding 23 shots and eight on target. They have been fortunate with a penalty save and a disallowed goal, but they’re moving in the right direction here. 

Their offense is also improving as Liverpool becomes more adept at playing with Darwin Nunez. Nothing demonstrates this more than the fact he recorded more touches (31) than any previous Premier League performance. Getting in these good positions saw him record an xG of 0.5 during their recent fixture, and we’d expect the chances to keep coming as Salah continues to occupy a much wider role. 

If you’re backing on chances, this is the week to do it. Nottingham Forest faced Brighton on Tuesday and conceded a huge 18 chances with six on target. We can’t dismiss the performance of Dean Henderson, but this constant pressure makes for painful watching. The reality is that Brighton lacks that finishing touch. New manager Roberto de Zerbi has highlighted this and tried experimenting with positioning, yet they’ve failed to find the net in the last 53 shots. Liverpool does not lack this quality, so we'd expect a few more goals here.

We’d back Liverpool to keep a third consecutive clean, given Forest is failing to progress into the final third and can only hit the target 24.1% of the time. For those going a step further, Liverpool should be able to cover a 2-point spread. They’ve only done this on one occasion this year, coincidently against another newly promoted side. 

Premier League Week 13 Picks: Recommended Bet

• Liverpool to keep a clean sheet, -110 at PointsBet
• Liverpool: -2, +117 at BetRivers

Chelsea vs Manchester United Predictions

Manchester United @ Chelsea, Saturday, October 22 at 12:30 pm ET

Chelsea walked away sharing the points with Brentford in what was a tale of two keepers. Kepa and Raya kept the teams fighting in this one with five saves each, and it’s safe to say the scoreline would’ve been very different without these two. Chelsea was a shadow of their former self, lacking creativity in the final third (5 SoT). Potter will still be familiar with the team and how best to use them, yet poor performances from Kai Havertz suggest that Chelsea must work on this final piece of the puzzle. If only they had proven EPL strikers in the form of Aubameyang!

Data taken from: fbref.com (Accurate as of 10/21/22)

Chelsea faces a big challenge this week, they face a United squad who are in fact, United. This is a profound change from the team we saw in recent years, as Erik Ten Hag has been able to get them to play cohesively together. Fred and Casimiro made a fantastic pairing in midfield, giving them solid foundations for the future. In recent weeks, gaps in the midfield and a lack of flare have held them back. However, both made excellent progression up the pitch and were able to control the state of play, giving the front line more chances than they’ve recorded all season (29 shots and ten on target). 

They’ll likely shape up similarly against Chelsea since both Tottenham and Chelsea favor the approach of working from the back. If they can shut down these chances and recover the ball higher up, we should see a similar performance from the Reds. It’s worth noting that this was by no stretch their best defensive performance. If they can maintain the pressure, then they stand a chance at taking the three points, but this could be another chance for Kepa to stand out from the rest. 

Premier League Week 13 Picks: Recommended Bet

• Both teams to score, -140 at Caesars
• Under 2.5 goals, -112 at FanDuel

Southampton vs Arsenal Predictions

Arsenal @ Southampton Sunday, October 23 at 9:00 am ET

Arsenal haven’t taken the week off, they faced PSV in the Europe League following a previous postponement and walked away with all three points thanks to an Xhaka goal in the 71st minute. For such a young squad, it’s great to see them step up in international competitions as well as domestically. Arsenal has maintained the quality they’ve started the season with, averaging 6.2 shots on target per match (2nd highest in the league). They’ve achieved this with a stellar leading line with no apparent weaknesses - Saka, Jesus, and Martinelli's front three contributed 4+ goals. 

This has to be a concern for Southampton who has conceded 150 shots and 45 on target in the campaign. Even more so, given injury doubts about Walker-Peters may force them to play more defensively. Thankfully, they will be approaching the fixture following a win over Bournemouth; despite this being an ugly fixture, Southampton saw some signs of hope with good performances from Caleta Car and Bazunu providing their first clean sheet of the season. 

Southampton still concedes most of their chances down their right-hand side, and with an in-form Martinelli poised to exploit this, we’d expect him to feature on the scoresheet. It’s hard to ignore his condition, given that he’s recorded four goals and three assists so far and has the pace to cause trouble for a claustrophobic backline. Because of this, we fancy a high-scoring affair as Arsenal has a great chance to continue pulling away from competitor Manchester City. 

Premier League Week 13 Odds: Recommended Bet

• Gabriel Martinelli to score, +190 at FanDuel
• Arsenal to score over 2.5 goals, +175 at Caesars

Premier League Week 13: Best EPL Moneyline Odds

Frequently asked Questions (FAQs) 

Who is the Best Player in the Premier League?

Whilst Erling Haaland is miles ahead of the competition for goals and has become a consistent force. Kevin De Bryune has the consistency over the past few years. He has always delivered, no matter the stage and remains a focal point of the Manchester City team as they dominate domestic leagues. 

Who is the Best Goalkeeper in the Premier League?

Our current favorite is Newcastle keeper Nick Pope. He's got the most clean sheets (5) and has a save% of 81.4%, second to Everton keeper Jordan Pickford.

Conclusion

The big-hitters in the Premier League face some significant challenges as the final few weeks to the World Cup count down. If you're looking for more soccer content, read our guide: How To Bet on Soccer, and visit our odds comparison tool to compare the latest odds.