Premier League Week 12 Picks: Previews, Best Odds, and Analysis

Premier League Week 12 Picks

• Brentford vs Chelsea: Both teams to score, -120 at Caesars
• Brentford vs Chelsea: Ivan Toney to score anytime, +230 at Caesars
• Liverpool vs West Ham: Roberto Firmino to score, +130 at FanDuel
• Liverpool vs West Ham: Liverpool to win both halves, +250 at FanDuel
• Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur: Harry Kane to score, +145 at FanDuel
• Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur: Tottenham to WIN and Over 2.5 goals, +290 at FanDuel

The Return of a Familiar Tale? 

The stalemate continues at the top of the Premier League table with no changes in the current top four. The headline of the previous games will be Manchester City and their defeat to Liverpool during their trip to Anfield. With Mohammed Salah bagging the only goal of the fixture, Guardiola will be cautious from here on out not dismissing any team, regardless of form. 

Only 10 points separate the leading group from those fighting it out in relegation, Southampton has dropped into the mix after a disappointing draw against West Ham. With only 15 goals across the week, it’s becoming clear that this year's competition is extremely tight and can result in some significant swings. Stick around as we look to continue our winning streak of predicted bets in our Premier League week 12 picks. 

Premier League Week 12 Picks and Odds

Brentford vs Chelsea Predictions

Chelsea @ Brentford, Wednesday, October 19 at 2:30 pm ET

Chelsea continues their winning streak after visiting the midlands and taking Aston Villa to two goals to nil. Mason Mount had arguably one of his best performances of the season - getting a brace from his two shots on target. Last week, we highlighted how the change in build-up play allowed him to cut inside and find space to take shots; and this is exactly what happened. Raheem Sterling also stood out from the match with 3 shots and 1 on target. He’ll be disappointed with these figures, but this is nothing new as he has consistently posted a SoT% of 41.4% over his career. 

It was clear that Chelsea was losing grip of the game come the end of the first half. Graham Potter sacrificed Kai Havertz in an attempt to bolster the backline and was met with success. Beyond relying on Kepa (who made a monumental triple save), this will not work against teams who favor an attacking style of play. It takes the pressure off the backline, but they’ll fail to build up to the final third and create enough chances. 

Unlike Aston Villa, Brentford is known for exposing a high line and catching teams out on the counter-attack. Over the weekend, they caught Brighton out a few times in this scenario, with Ivan Toney being as clinical as ever, scoring two goals. Despite this display from the talisman, Brentford's backline looked as solid as ever, with Raya making a huge seven saves, matching his season best. This will prove difficult for Chelsea to break down, considering the boosted confidence they would have received after their recent win. 

Data taken from: pro-football-reference.com (Accurate as of 10/17/22)

It will be a tightly contested game, with Chelsea yet to really find their star man to dominate scorelines. They were lucky not to concede against Aston Villa despite an xGA of 1.7, they cannot afford to make this mistake against Brentford. We’re backing both teams to score and Ivan Toney to make the scoresheet again. He’s a man of habit, and once he hits a good run of form, it can be difficult to predict when it will end.  

Premier League Week 12 Picks: Recommended Bet

• Both teams to score, -120 at Caesars
• Ivan Toney to score anytime, +230 at Caesars

Liverpool vs West Ham Predictions

West Ham @ Liverpool, Wednesday, October 19 at 2:30 pm ET

No matter how low the scoreline was, Liverpool will be delighted with their result over the weekend. Winning the Premier League will be out of the question; however, getting that elusive Champions League spot will be crucial to the success of their next season and whether they have the option to invest in the likes of Jude Bellingham and Christopher Nkuku. 

Their woes this season have mainly been in their backline, which looked set to continue with injuries to Konate, Matip, and Trent Alexander-Arnold. We can only imagine the groans in Merseyside once it was announced that James Milner and Gomez would start within the backline. Yet, they proved everyone wrong, putting in a monster performance and keeping out one of the creative giants in European soccer. City still managed to record 16 shots with 6 on target, but the Reds did well in closing down Haaland and Cancelo to prevent this from becoming a massacre. 

West Ham is still limping throughout the campaign but has seen a resurgence following two wins and a draw from the last three fixtures. They were unlucky to walk away from Southampton with just one point, Scammaca had a brilliant appearance and was unlucky to find the net from 7 shots. Looking ahead at their next fixture, they won’t be as fortunate. They could be without Craig Dawson and Kurt Zouma, only adding to their defensive woes. As a result, they’re given the lowest probability of a clean sheet by sportsbooks in week 12 (8%) which suggests Liverpool may run rampant. 

We’re backing a couple of goals in this fixture, we’d expect Liverpool to win both halves since they’re on the back of a massive ego boost and central man Roberto Firmino to score. 

Premier League Week 12 Picks: Recommended Bet

• Roberto Firmino to score, +130 at FanDuel
• Liverpool to win both halves, +250 at FanDuel

Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur Predictions

Tottenham Hotspur @ Manchester United, Wednesday, October 16 at 9:00 am ET

Byes for Arsenal and Manchester City mean Tottenham Hotspur can bridge the gap between them. They’ll feel confident going into this fixture following a great result against Everton, ending with a 2-0 victory. Whilst Harry Kane and Hojbjerg found the net, performances from Bissouma, Dier, and Bentancur were huge positives for Conte. Switching to a 3-4-3 gave them better freedom down the wings and find opportunities in the state of play whilst also providing support to the backline when needed. During the match, Eric Dier played 26 successful long balls, which was more than anyone else on the pitch. No doubt this helped control that middle third. 

This kind of control will be the nail in the coffin for Manchester United as Spurs travel up north for their game. After a goalless draw against Newcastle, issues with quality and creativity are stark and should concern Erik Ten Hag - From 15 shots, only 2 were on target. They tend to get their goals from opposition errors, yet this is unlikely to happen when they face the Lilywhites. It’s clear to see that Christian Eriksen is the glue currently holding the team together as the only one capable of finding those moments of magic. He was out with an illness last week, but his return would be a step in the right direction. 

Data taken from: pro-football-reference.com (Accurate as of 10/17/22)

It’s likely that we’ll see Manchester United improve on their previous performance, but it’s hard to see them secure the three points over Tottenham Hotspur. For our Premier League week 12 picks, we’d back Harry Kane to score, given he has 3 times in their last 5 meetings and a few goals in the match. 

Premier League Week 12 Picks: Recommended Bet

• Harry Kane to score, +145 at FanDuel
• Tottenham to WIN and Over 2.5 goals, +290 at FanDuel

Premier League Week 12 Best Odds

Conclusion

With a few less fixtures than normal, we jump straight back into the action with our Premier League week 12 picks. If you're looking for more soccer content, read our guide: How To Bet on Soccer, and visit our odds comparison tool to compare the latest odds.