• Jets rushing edge: 12.8% explosive run rate (94th pct; sample 39) vs Bills allowing 14.3% explosive runs (3rd pct; sample 28).

• Bills chunk air game: 15.2% explosive pass rate (91st pct; sample 46) and 10.9% deep explosives (88th; sample 46).

• Pace help: Bills no-huddle on 14.3% of snaps (94th pct; sample 105) → more play volume.

• Pressure battle: Jets pressure-to-sack 11.8% (91st; sample 34) vs Bills sack rate allowed 2.1% (80th; sample 47).

• Third-down tilt (small samples): BUF third-down stop rate 45.5% (12th pct; sample 11) vs NYJ third-down conversion 50.0% (69th; sample 14).

• Q tags matter: BUF CB White and WR Shakir; NYJ LT Pole and WR Lazard. Expect late-week moves to swing matchup routes and pressure.

• Anchor spread: Lean Bills -4.5 (-149). Buffalo’s pass efficiency plus Allen’s scramble floor offset NYJ pressure, but note the juice. If you want a better price, Bills -5.0 is -127.

• Anchor total 48.5: Lean Over (+104). Bills’ explosives + Jets run explosives vs a Bills D that has leaked big runs. Plus price helps with variance. (Under is -154 if you disagree.)

• Breece Hall over 56.5 rush yds (-120): Fits NYJ explosive run strength vs BUF’s 14.3% explosive runs allowed.

• Justin Fields over 41.5 rush yds (-120): Scramble and designed runs vs a defense vulnerable on the ground.

• Josh Allen over 34.5 rush yds (-120): Jets’ high pressure conversion can push Allen to take off.

• Dalton Kincaid over 3.5 receptions (+110): Quick outlets vs rush; Bills’ no-huddle supports short-area volume.

Buffalo brings explosive pass traits and pace. New York brings a real rushing edge and a pass rush that can disrupt timing. The game likely swings on whether the Bills’ line keeps Allen clean or whether Allen’s legs punish the rush.

Our spread lean is Bills -4.5, but it’s a juice-heavy number. If you want a fairer price, -5.0 at -127 is a reasonable alternate. On the total, we lean Over 48.5 at plus money. The matchup offers multiple paths to points: Bills chunk passes and QB runs, Jets explosive ground gains.

Prop angles cluster around rushing. Hall and Fields both match up well against a defense that has allowed chunk runs. Allen’s rushing clears often when pressure climbs. Kincaid’s receptions at plus money are a small-stake add that fits the script.

Bet responsibly. Prices move, and Questionable tags create swings. Lock in numbers you’re comfortable with and size accordingly.