Game Preview of Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears. Week 3 of 2025 NFL Season
Sunday at Soldier Field has drama baked in. Matt Eberflus, fired by Chicago last year, returns as Dallas’s defensive coordinator. He now faces rookie QB Caleb Williams in a matchup full of tension.
The Bears are 0-2 and leaking points. They gave up 52 to Detroit last week and rank bottom in most defensive measures. Secondary injuries pile up with Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, and others sidelined. That leaves backup corners against CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
Dallas enters at 1-1 with Dak Prescott playing sharp football. He’s completed nearly 69% of his throws and looks comfortable spreading the ball. The Cowboys offense is top five in yards and points per game. Even with center Cooper Beebe out, they’ve protected well.
Markets set Dallas as a slight favorite. The line is Cowboys -2.5 (+104) with a total at 48.5 (Over -154, Under +108). That profile points to fireworks, with Dallas expected to break 25 points and Chicago projected just below.
Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
---|---|---|---|---|
2025-09-14 | @ DET | L 21-52 | L 6.0 | o46.5 |
2025-09-08 | vs MIN | L 24-27 | L -1.5 | o43.5 |
2025-01-05 | @ GB | W 24-22 | L 10.0 | o41.5 |
2024-12-26 | vs SEA | L 3-6 | L -3.5 | u43.5 |
2024-12-22 | vs DET | L 17-34 | L -7.0 | o47.5 |
2024-12-16 | @ MIN | L 12-30 | L 7.0 | u43.5 |
2024-12-08 | @ SF | L 13-38 | L 3.0 | o43.5 |
2024-11-28 | @ DET | L 20-23 | L 9.5 | u47.5 |
2024-11-24 | vs MIN | L 27-30 | L -3.0 | o39.5 |
2024-11-17 | vs GB | L 19-20 | L -6.0 | u41.0 |
Third down clash: Dallas converts 54.2% of third downs (91st percentile), while Chicago’s defense stops 68.4% (91st pct). One of the best-on-best battles in this matchup.
Protection gap: Bears allow sacks on 10.7% of dropbacks (12th pct). Cowboys generate pressure-to-sack at 4.4% (41st pct). Dallas should still find pressure.
Explosive runs both ways: Dallas allows 7.7% explosive run plays (16th pct) and Chicago 8.9% (9th pct). Running backs have paths to chunk plays.
Cowboys red-zone strength: Dallas scores TDs on 83.3% of red-zone trips (88th pct, 6 drives). Bears’ defense allows TDs on 88.9% (6th pct, 9 drives). Advantage Dallas.
Bears offense shows sparks: Explosive pass rate at 9.1% (69th pct, 55 passes), but protection breakdowns stall consistency.
Sample size caution: Many traits use early-season data with fewer than 10 snaps. Treat rankings as directional.
Spread: Cowboys -2.5 (+104) gives plus money on the road favorite; Bears +2.5 is heavily juiced at -143.
Total: 48.5, with Over -154 and Under +108. Pricing tilts heavily toward points.
Team totals: Cowboys 25.0 (Over -119, Under -120); Bears 24.5 (Over -114, Under -125). Books expect both teams in mid-20s.
Dak Prescott over 263.5 passing (-120): Soft secondary missing top corners increases ceiling.
Caleb Williams under 238.5 passing (-120): Rookie already posting a 10.7% sack rate allowed.
CeeDee Lamb over 79.5 yards (-120): Faces patchwork DBs.
George Pickens over 55.5 yards (-118): Strong matchup with Bears injuries.
DJ Moore anytime TD (+142): Bears’ best shot at keeping pace.
This matchup boils down to protection and coverage. Dallas brings an efficient passing game into a Chicago secondary missing its top talent. Prescott has favorable matchups across the board and a red-zone unit that rarely settles for field goals.
Chicago’s offense can hit the occasional big play with DJ Moore and Rome Odunze, but consistency is the issue. Caleb Williams is under fire, and the Cowboys’ front should test his pocket awareness. Pressure and turnovers could swing the outcome.
The market leans Dallas with a small spread at -2.5 (+104) and a high total at 48.5. That fits a script where both teams score, but Dallas controls the pace and finishes more drives.
For bettors, the key is managing the juice. Overs and Dallas props carry heavy prices. Unders on Chicago passing or alternatives like anytime touchdowns may provide cleaner paths. Either way, Soldier Field sets up for a high-pressure, high-scoring showdown.
Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Points | 45 | #14 | 61 | #5 | |
Total Points Per Game | 22.5 | #15 | 30.5 | #27 | |
Total Touchdowns | 5 | #19 | 7 | #25 | |
Passing Touchdowns | 3 | #17 | 3 | #11 | |
Rushing Touchdowns | 2 | #8 | 4 | #31 | |
Other Touchdowns | 0 | #24 | 0 | #24 | 🏈 |
Total Kicking Points | 9 | #28 | 19 | #7 | |
Total Two Point Conversions | 0 | #22 | 0 | #28 | |
Kick Extra Points | 6 | #4 | 7 | #4 | 🏈 |
Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Passing Yards | 403 | #17 | 566 | #3 | |
Net Passing Yards Per Game | 202 | #19 | 283 | #3 | |
Passer Rating | 89.3 | #18 | 114 | #3 | |
Passing Attempts | 68 | #15 | 64 | #19 | |
Completions | 42 | #18 | 49 | #7 | |
Completion Percentage | 61.8 | #22 | 76.6 | #31 | |
Passing 1st downs | 21 | #18 | 21 | #15 | |
Passing 1st Down % | 53.8 | #21 | 50 | #8 | |
Longest Pass | 37 | #25 | 52 | #5 | |
Passing Fumbles Lost | 1 | #11 | 0 | #22 | |
Receiving Targets | 67 | #13 | 60 | #15 | |
Receptions | 42 | #18 | 49 | #26 | |
Receiving Yards After Catch | 164 | #26 | 198 | #16 | |
YAC Average | 3.9 | #28 | 4.0 | #11 |
Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rushing Yards | 253 | #12 | 242 | #23 | |
Rushing Yards Per Game | 126 | #12 | 121 | #10 | |
Rushing Attempts | 53 | #12 | 59 | #26 | |
Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4.8 | #9 | 4.1 | #18 | |
Rushing 1st downs | 14 | #10 | 20 | #31 | |
20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 1 | #21 | 2 | #7 | |
Long Rushing | 20 | #22 | 24 | #15 | |
Rushing Fumbles | 1 | #21 | 2 | #7 | |
Rushing Fumbles Lost | 1 | #4 | 0 | #28 |