NFLGame PreviewsDAL VS CHI Preview Week3 season 21-SEP-2025

Game Preview of Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears. Week 3 of 2025 NFL Season

DAL logo

DAL

1-1-0
@
21SEP25
04:25pm
CHI logo

CHI

0-2-0
Soldier Field

Game Preview

Sunday at Soldier Field has drama baked in. Matt Eberflus, fired by Chicago last year, returns as Dallas’s defensive coordinator. He now faces rookie QB Caleb Williams in a matchup full of tension.

The Bears are 0-2 and leaking points. They gave up 52 to Detroit last week and rank bottom in most defensive measures. Secondary injuries pile up with Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, and others sidelined. That leaves backup corners against CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.

Dallas enters at 1-1 with Dak Prescott playing sharp football. He’s completed nearly 69% of his throws and looks comfortable spreading the ball. The Cowboys offense is top five in yards and points per game. Even with center Cooper Beebe out, they’ve protected well.

Markets set Dallas as a slight favorite. The line is Cowboys -2.5 (+104) with a total at 48.5 (Over -154, Under +108). That profile points to fireworks, with Dallas expected to break 25 points and Chicago projected just below.

Current Season Form

DAL logo

DAL

Away
Record:1-1-0
ATS:1-1-0
O/U:1-1-0
CHI logo

CHI

Home
Record:0-2-0
ATS:0-2-0
O/U:2-0-0

Head-to-Head Summary

Record:
3-2Winner logo
ATS:3-2-0
O/U:5-0-0

Past Results

DateOpponentResultATSO/U
2025-09-14@ DETL 21-52L 6.0o46.5
2025-09-08vs MINL 24-27L -1.5o43.5
2025-01-05@ GBW 24-22L 10.0o41.5
2024-12-26vs SEAL 3-6L -3.5u43.5
2024-12-22vs DETL 17-34L -7.0o47.5
2024-12-16@ MINL 12-30L 7.0u43.5
2024-12-08@ SFL 13-38L 3.0o43.5
2024-11-28@ DETL 20-23L 9.5u47.5
2024-11-24vs MINL 27-30L -3.0o39.5
2024-11-17vs GBL 19-20L -6.0u41.0

Key Insights

 

  • Third down clash: Dallas converts 54.2% of third downs (91st percentile), while Chicago’s defense stops 68.4% (91st pct). One of the best-on-best battles in this matchup.

  • Protection gap: Bears allow sacks on 10.7% of dropbacks (12th pct). Cowboys generate pressure-to-sack at 4.4% (41st pct). Dallas should still find pressure.

  • Explosive runs both ways: Dallas allows 7.7% explosive run plays (16th pct) and Chicago 8.9% (9th pct). Running backs have paths to chunk plays.

  • Cowboys red-zone strength: Dallas scores TDs on 83.3% of red-zone trips (88th pct, 6 drives). Bears’ defense allows TDs on 88.9% (6th pct, 9 drives). Advantage Dallas.

  • Bears offense shows sparks: Explosive pass rate at 9.1% (69th pct, 55 passes), but protection breakdowns stall consistency.

  • Sample size caution: Many traits use early-season data with fewer than 10 snaps. Treat rankings as directional.

 

Betting Insights

  • Spread: Cowboys -2.5 (+104) gives plus money on the road favorite; Bears +2.5 is heavily juiced at -143.

  • Total: 48.5, with Over -154 and Under +108. Pricing tilts heavily toward points.

  • Team totals: Cowboys 25.0 (Over -119, Under -120); Bears 24.5 (Over -114, Under -125). Books expect both teams in mid-20s.

  • Dak Prescott over 263.5 passing (-120): Soft secondary missing top corners increases ceiling.

  • Caleb Williams under 238.5 passing (-120): Rookie already posting a 10.7% sack rate allowed.

  • CeeDee Lamb over 79.5 yards (-120): Faces patchwork DBs.

  • George Pickens over 55.5 yards (-118): Strong matchup with Bears injuries.

  • DJ Moore anytime TD (+142): Bears’ best shot at keeping pace.

Final Summary

This matchup boils down to protection and coverage. Dallas brings an efficient passing game into a Chicago secondary missing its top talent. Prescott has favorable matchups across the board and a red-zone unit that rarely settles for field goals.

Chicago’s offense can hit the occasional big play with DJ Moore and Rome Odunze, but consistency is the issue. Caleb Williams is under fire, and the Cowboys’ front should test his pocket awareness. Pressure and turnovers could swing the outcome.

The market leans Dallas with a small spread at -2.5 (+104) and a high total at 48.5. That fits a script where both teams score, but Dallas controls the pace and finishes more drives.

For bettors, the key is managing the juice. Overs and Dallas props carry heavy prices. Unders on Chicago passing or alternatives like anytime touchdowns may provide cleaner paths. Either way, Soldier Field sets up for a high-pressure, high-scoring showdown.

Statistical Battle Boards

Viewing: CHI Offense vs DAL Defense
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Total Points45#1461#5DAL advantage
Total Points Per Game22.5#1530.5#27CHI advantage
Total Touchdowns5#197#25CHI advantage
Passing Touchdowns3#173#11DAL advantage
Rushing Touchdowns2#84#31CHI advantage
Other Touchdowns0#240#24🏈
Total Kicking Points9#2819#7DAL advantage
Total Two Point Conversions0#220#28CHI advantage
Kick Extra Points6#47#4🏈
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Net Passing Yards403#17566#3DAL advantage
Net Passing Yards Per Game202#19283#3DAL advantage
Passer Rating89.3#18114#3DAL advantage
Passing Attempts68#1564#19CHI advantage
Completions42#1849#7DAL advantage
Completion Percentage61.8#2276.6#31CHI advantage
Passing 1st downs21#1821#15DAL advantage
Passing 1st Down %53.8#2150#8DAL advantage
Longest Pass37#2552#5DAL advantage
Passing Fumbles Lost1#110#22CHI advantage
Receiving Targets67#1360#15CHI advantage
Receptions42#1849#26CHI advantage
Receiving Yards After Catch164#26198#16DAL advantage
YAC Average3.9#284.0#11DAL advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Rushing Yards253#12242#23CHI advantage
Rushing Yards Per Game126#12121#10DAL advantage
Rushing Attempts53#1259#26CHI advantage
Yards Per Rush Attempt4.8#94.1#18CHI advantage
Rushing 1st downs14#1020#31CHI advantage
20+ Yard Rushing Plays1#212#7DAL advantage
Long Rushing20#2224#15DAL advantage
Rushing Fumbles1#212#7DAL advantage
Rushing Fumbles Lost1#40#28CHI advantage