• GB vertical edge: Packers deep-pass explosive rate is 8.2% (95th percentile; sample 85). Dallas allows explosive passes at 8.4% (23rd; sample 95).

• Third-down gap: GB converts 47.6% on third down (97th; sample 42). Dallas’ defense stops only 46.3% of third downs (3rd percentile; sample 41).

• Dallas offense, adjusted: Lamb is Doubtful, so targets may shift to TE Jake Ferguson and depth WRs. That fits Dallas’ 13.0% no-huddle rate (91st), which boosts play volume.

• GB pass defense clamps explosives: Packers allow explosive passes on just 0.8% (97th; sample 125). That caps Dallas’ big-play odds.

• Trenches watch: GB’s sack rate allowed is 8.1% (28th; sample 86) with multiple OL Questionable. Dallas’ pass rush has a low sack-rate generated mark at 4.2% (22nd; sample 96), which may mute the trench risk.

• Small-sample flags: Some red-zone and long-drive metrics have small samples (often under 10). Treat them as hints, not guarantees.

• Spread: Packers -6.5 (-120). The price leans toward GB’s third-down edge and explosive pass profile, but the hook over six raises endgame risk.

• Total: 48.5 (Over -104, Under -133). Under is juiced, yet both offenses rank well on third down (GB 47.6%, DAL 44.4%), which can push drives. Variance cuts both ways.

• Jordan Love over 232.5 pass yards (-120): Dallas allows a high rate of explosive throws and struggles on third down, which sustains volume.

• Romeo Doubs over 42.5 receiving yards (-120): Matches GB’s 9.4% explosive pass rate against DAL’s leaky explosive-pass defense.

• Jake Ferguson over 54.5 receiving yards (-116): Lamb Doubtful points to more middle-of-field work; Dallas’ tempo (no-huddle 13.0%) helps volume.

• Dak Prescott under 241.5 pass yards (-120): GB’s defense allows explosive passes at only 0.8%, making long gains tougher without Lamb.

Green Bay brings a clean passing edge into Dallas. The Packers create chunk gains and extend drives. Dallas needs to counter with ball control and third-down execution of its own.

The Cowboys’ defense has to break serve. If they cannot get stops on third down, the Packers’ offense will stack snaps and points. Lamb’s status is a swing factor for Dallas’ ceiling.

Market numbers reflect that gap. The spread sits around -6.5 and the total near 48.5. Juice points slightly to the Under, but both teams’ third-down strengths can add scoring swings.

Bet responsibly. Prices carry juice, and several key players are Questionable. Scale positions to the injury news and be ready to adjust if inactives tighten or widen the matchup edges.