First Basket Betting: How to Bet on the NBA First Scorer

First basket betting is one of the most exciting prop bets available for NBA games. Instead of betting on which team wins or the final score, you are predicting which player will score the first points of the game. This fast-paced market adds excitement from tip-off and settles within the opening minutes.

What Is First Basket Betting?

First basket betting is a player prop market where you select which NBA player will score the first field goal of the game. The bet typically settles when any player on either team scores a basket from the floor. Free throws usually do not count toward first basket wagers unless the bet specifically includes them.

This market is popular because it offers immediate action. Unlike traditional bets that require waiting until the final buzzer, first basket bets often settle within the first minute or two of gameplay. The quick resolution combined with longer odds on individual players makes this an entertaining market for NBA betting enthusiasts.

How First Basket Bets Work

When you place a first basket bet, you are selecting one player from either team to score the opening field goal. Each player is assigned individual odds based on their likelihood of being the first scorer.

Player	Team	First Basket Odds	Implied Probability
Anthony Edwards	Timberwolves	+450	18.2%
Karl-Anthony Towns	Knicks	+500	16.7%
Jalen Brunson	Knicks	+600	14.3%
Julius Randle	Timberwolves	+700	12.5%
Rudy Gobert	Timberwolves	+800	11.1%

Centers who win the opening tip-off often have the shortest odds because they control the ball first. Guards and wings who receive the ball after the tip are next in the pecking order. Bench players and role players have longer odds because they rarely touch the ball on the first possession.

Factors That Influence First Basket Scoring

Several factors determine who scores the first basket in an NBA game.

Tip-Off Advantage

The team that wins the opening tip controls the first possession. Centers with strong vertical leaps and good timing have higher win rates on jump balls. If you can identify which center is more likely to win the tip, you narrow down which team will have the first scoring opportunity.

Starting Lineup Roles

Star players typically handle the ball on opening possessions. Teams often run designed plays to get their best scorer involved early. Knowing which player a team features in their opening sets provides an edge.

Play Style and Tendencies

Some teams run fast-paced offenses that push the ball immediately after tip-off. Others slow down and work through their half-court offense. Fast-paced teams often see guards or wings score first, while methodical teams may run post-ups for their big men.

Historical Patterns

Certain players consistently score first baskets at higher rates. Tracking this data reveals patterns that sportsbooks may not fully account for in their odds. Players who are aggressive early or benefit from designed plays tend to have repeatable first basket rates.

First Basket Betting Strategy

Winning at first basket betting requires a focused approach. Here are practical strategies for this NBA player prop market.

Research Tip-Off Winners

Before placing a first basket bet, research which center is favored to win the opening tip. Historical tip-off data is available from various NBA statistics sites. Centers with 60% or higher tip-off win rates give their team a significant first possession advantage.

Study Opening Possessions

Watch how teams start games. Some coaches call specific plays for their first possession. If a team consistently runs a pick-and-roll for their point guard or an isolation for their star wing, those players become prime first basket candidates.

Consider the Matchup

Defensive matchups affect early-game scoring. If a team matches a slower defender against a quick guard, that guard may attack early. Similarly, if a center faces a weak interior defender, post-up opportunities increase.

Look for Value on Non-Stars

While star players have the best chances, their odds are often compressed. Role players who receive first-possession touches can offer better value. A stretch four who spaces the floor or a center who finishes lob passes might have inflated odds relative to their actual probability.

Track Your Results

First basket betting has high variance. Individual results are unpredictable, but patterns emerge over larger sample sizes. Keep records of your bets and analyze which factors correlate with winning selections.

Types of First Basket Bets

Sportsbooks offer several variations on first basket betting.

Exact Player First Basket

The most common format. You select a specific player to score the first field goal. Odds range from around +400 for favorites to +2000 or longer for bench players.

Team First Basket

Some books offer which team will score first rather than a specific player. This market has closer to even odds and is easier to predict since you only need to identify the tip-off winner.

First Basket Method

This variation lets you bet on how the first basket is scored rather than who scores it. Options include layup, dunk, three-pointer, mid-range jumper, or tip-in. This adds another dimension to first basket betting.

First Basket Race to Points

A related market where you predict which player reaches a certain point threshold first, such as 5 points. This extends the action beyond just the opening basket.

Risks of First Basket Betting

First basket betting is entertaining but comes with inherent risks.

High Variance

Even the most likely first scorer hits at less than 20% on average. Long losing streaks are common. A player expected to score first 15% of the time will still miss roughly 85% of attempts.

Limited Edge Potential

Sportsbooks price first basket markets efficiently. Finding significant edges is difficult because the sample sizes for historical data are small and circumstances change game to game.

Overconfidence in Patterns

Just because a player scored first in several recent games does not mean they will continue. Regression to mean probabilities occurs, and short streaks rarely indicate true predictive value.

Bet Sizing

Due to the long odds and high variance, proper bankroll management is essential. Betting too much on any single first basket wager can deplete your bankroll quickly during inevitable cold stretches.

Where to Bet on First Basket

First basket markets are available at most major US sportsbooks during the NBA season. Look for books that offer competitive odds and a wide selection of players. Some sportsbooks only list starters while others include bench players with longer odds.

Compare odds across multiple books before placing your bet. Small differences in plus-money odds significantly impact long-term returns. A player listed at +500 at one book versus +550 at another represents meaningful value over time.

First Basket Betting Tips

Here are quick tips to improve your first basket betting:

1. Check starting lineups before betting. Late scratches change tip-off dynamics.
2. Identify which center wins the tip more often. This determines first possession.
3. Research team tendencies for opening plays.
4. Focus on games with clear tip-off favorites rather than coin-flip situations.
5. Consider centers who finish their own tips with put-backs.
6. Track results to identify which strategies work best.

First basket betting adds excitement to NBA viewing from the moment the ball goes up. While predicting individual outcomes is difficult, informed bettors can find value by understanding tip-off dynamics, team tendencies, and player roles. Explore more NBA betting markets to expand your betting options.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is first basket betting in the NBA?

First basket betting is a player prop market where you predict which player will score the first field goal of an NBA game. You select one player from either team, and if that player scores the opening basket from the floor, your bet wins. Free throws typically do not count unless specifically included in the bet terms.

How are first basket odds determined?

Sportsbooks set first basket odds based on several factors including which center is favored to win the opening tip-off, each player's role in their team's starting lineup, historical first basket scoring rates, and designed plays teams run on their opening possession. Star players who handle the ball early typically have shorter odds ranging from +400 to +600, while role players and bench players may be listed at +1000 or longer.

Which players are best to bet for first basket?

The best first basket candidates are usually centers who win the tip-off and can finish their own tips with put-backs, star guards and wings who receive the ball on the first possession and are featured in designed plays, and players whose teams run fast-paced offenses that attack immediately after tip-off. Research team tendencies for opening possessions and track which players consistently touch the ball first to identify value.

Does the team that wins the tip-off always score first?

No, winning the tip-off gives a team the first possession but does not guarantee they score first. The team could turn the ball over, miss their shot and allow a fast break, or commit a foul that leads to free throws. However, the tip-off winner does have a significant advantage, which is why researching which center is favored to win the opening jump ball is crucial for first basket betting.

What happens if the player I bet on does not start the game?

If a player does not start due to a late scratch or lineup change, most sportsbooks will void your bet and refund your stake. This is why checking starting lineups shortly before tip-off is essential. Some books may have different rules, so always review the specific terms for first basket bets at your sportsbook before placing wagers.

Can I bet on how the first basket is scored?

Yes, some sportsbooks offer first basket method props where you bet on how the opening basket is scored rather than who scores it. Options typically include layup, dunk, three-pointer, mid-range jumper, or tip-in. This variation adds another strategic dimension since different matchups and team styles favor different scoring methods.

Is first basket betting profitable long-term?

First basket betting is challenging to profit from consistently due to high variance and efficient sportsbook pricing. Even the most likely first scorer hits at less than 20% on average, leading to long losing streaks. Success requires disciplined bankroll management, thorough research of tip-off dynamics and team tendencies, and tracking results over large sample sizes to identify which strategies produce positive expected value.