• Jaguar safeties and corners have capped explosives: 2.9% explosive passes allowed (91st pct) meets a Texans attack built on 12.8% explosive pass rate (84th pct).

• Money downs lean Jacksonville: JAX turnover rate 4.9% (97th pct) plus HOU third-down 26.7% (6th pct) can flip drives.

• Protection edge helps Lawrence: JAX sack rate allowed 95th pct (sample 31) vs HOU pressure-to-sack conversion 72nd pct supports intermediate routes and YAC.

• Houston defence is boom-or-bust vs pass: 13.8% explosive passes allowed (12th pct), but a solid pressure-to-sack conversion (72nd pct) — big plays go both ways.

• Injuries change usage: Brian Thomas Jr. Q (deep threat volatility). Texans’ C Jake Andrews Out can hurt communication on blitz pickups and short-yardage.

• Game pace likely steady, not frantic: JAX mix under-centre looks (59.5%) with measured shots; Houston’s no-huddle rate is low (2.6%).

• Jaguars -3.0 (+104): Edge comes from JAX pass D vs HOU explosives and a strong turnover rate (4.9%); plus money but higher variance at the key number.

• Total 44.5: Under -125 / Over -110. JAX limit explosives, and HOU third-down issues can bleed clock; note the heavier juice on the Under.

• Jaguars team total Over 21.5 (-120): Elite sack avoidance (95th pct) vs a defence allowing 13.8% explosive passes supports 3 TDs path.

• C.J. Stroud under 221.5 pass yds (-120): JAX’s 2.9% explosive-pass allowed and takeaway rate can cap chunk gains and end drives.

• Trevor Lawrence over 226.5 pass yds (-120): Clean pockets plus HOU’s explosive-pass leak raise median yardage.

• Travis Etienne anytime TD (+108): Plus-money tied to steady red-zone usage; price offsets variance.

(Avoid props on players listed Out. For Questionable tags like Brian Thomas Jr., volatility is higher — reduce stake or wait for actives.)

Houston need this. Their offence can still strike, but third downs and protection are the swing points. Losing the centre matters, especially on the road.

Jacksonville hold the cleaner edges: they protect the quarterback, take the ball away, and shut off deep shots. If Brian Thomas Jr. plays, the Jags can threaten downfield. If not, they can still work the middle and backs, then trust the defence.

The market reflects a modest home edge: Jaguars -3.0 (+104) and 44.5 for the total. That points to a mid-40s game where one or two turnovers decide the cover.

Bottom line: Jacksonville’s profile is steadier right now. Houston can flip it with a few explosives, but the safer script is Jags’ protection and defence controlling field position. Bet sizes should match the juice and the early-season variance.