Game Preview of Houston Texnas @ Los Angeles Rams. Week 1 of 2025 NFL Season
Two teams with playoff aspirations open at SoFi as Houston visits the Rams on Sunday. The matchup sets up as pass-forward vs balanced: Houston leaned pass last year (about 55% of early-down plays) while Los Angeles was closer to balanced.
Protection could decide a lot early. The Rams kept their quarterback cleaner (about a 6% sack rate on dropbacks) while Houston’s offense allowed pressure more often (about 9%). That tilts the pocket in L.A.’s favor if the game script stays neutral.
On early downs, the Rams graded stronger (top-10 success) and the Texans allowed a lower rate, giving L.A. a small but real efficiency edge to stay ahead of the sticks. Houston’s run game was volatile with a high stuff rate, so staying on schedule may require quick-game and RPOs.
Houston’s secondary is banged up: multiple safeties are out and C.J. Gardner-Johnson is questionable. That nudges L.A.’s pass game outlook, though the Rams’ defense has its own holes against explosive passes. Expect both teams to look for chunk gains off play action and field position to matter.
Note: All team stats for the week 1 games are from 2024
Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
---|---|---|---|---|
2025-01-19 | @ PHI | L 22-28 | L 7.0 | o43.5 |
2025-01-13 | vs MIN | W 27-9 | W +-2.5 | u47.5 |
2025-01-05 | vs SEA | L 25-30 | L -7.5 | o38.5 |
2024-12-28 | vs ARI | W 13-9 | W +6.5 | u48.0 |
2024-12-22 | @ NYJ | W 19-9 | W +-3.0 | u47.0 |
2024-12-12 | @ SF | W 12-6 | W +3.0 | u48.5 |
2024-12-08 | vs BUF | W 44-42 | L -3.5 | o49.5 |
2024-12-01 | @ NO | W 21-14 | W +-2.5 | u48.5 |
2024-11-24 | vs PHI | L 20-37 | L -3.0 | o49.0 |
2024-11-17 | @ NE | W 28-22 | W +-4.0 | o42.5 |
Style contrast: Texans skew pass on early downs; Rams are more balanced but efficient.
Pass pro tilt: L.A. dropback sack rate (~6%) vs Houston’s allowed (~9%) favors the Rams protecting long-developing routes.
Early-down edge: Rams’ offense vs Texans’ defense projects slightly positive for L.A. in staying on schedule.
Houston injuries in the secondary (multiple safeties out; Gardner-Johnson questionable) subtly lift the Rams’ passing ceiling.
Texans’ high stuff rate on runs can stall drives; negative plays were a problem last year.
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Spread: Rams -1.5 (consensus home cover prob 54%); Texans +1.5.
Moneyline: Rams implied 57% to win; Texans 43%.
Over/Under: 43.5 (Over lean 51%).
Best available prices from the gamepack: Texans ML +110; Rams ML -167; Rams -1.5 -147; Texans +1.5 +100; O43.5 -127; U43.5 -120.
Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Points | 367 | #19 | 372 | #17 | |
Total Points Per Game | 21.6 | #19 | 21.9 | #14 | |
Total Touchdowns | 39 | #19 | 42 | #17 | |
Passing Touchdowns | 22 | #17 | 31 | #28 | |
Rushing Touchdowns | 15 | #14 | 11 | #6 | |
Total Kicking Points | 119 | #21 | 114 | #21 | 🏈 |
Total Two Point Conversions | 0 | #25 | 2 | #11 | |
Kick Extra Points | 32 | #20 | 36 | #14 |
Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Passing Yards | 3868 | #10 | 3417 | #27 | |
Net Passing Yards Per Game | 228 | #10 | 201 | #27 | |
Passer Rating | 93.7 | #13 | 83.7 | #27 | |
Passing Attempts | 559 | #14 | 554 | #13 | |
Completions | 367 | #13 | 326 | #28 | |
Completion Percentage | 65.7 | #13 | 58.8 | #1 | |
Passing 1st downs | 192 | #14 | 172 | #4 | |
Longest Pass | 69 | #15 | 73 | #11 | |
Passing Fumbles Lost | 2 | #28 | 5 | #11 | |
Receiving Targets | 541 | #13 | 533 | #18 | |
Receptions | 367 | #13 | 326 | #3 | |
Receiving Yards After Catch | 1958 | #15 | 1989 | #17 |
Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rushing Yards | 1765 | #22 | 1938 | #11 | |
Rushing Yards Per Game | 104 | #22 | 114 | #20 | |
Rushing Attempts | 450 | #16 | 447 | #13 | |
Yards Per Rush Attempt | 3.9 | #29 | 4.3 | #20 | |
Rushing 1st downs | 119 | #13 | 107 | #9 | |
20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 3 | #29 | 13 | #7 | |
Long Rushing | 30 | #29 | 58 | #19 | |
Rushing Fumbles | 3 | #29 | 13 | #7 | |
Rushing Fumbles Lost | 3 | #13 | 0 | #30 |