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BAL
LAR
Game Preview
The Rams visit the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. The market shows Los Angeles as a full touchdown favorite with a total in the mid-40s. That tells us books expect Rams control and steady scoring.
Quarterback health hangs over Baltimore. Lamar Jackson is listed as Questionable. If he is limited or sits, the Ravens lose escapability and explosive pass juice. Protection has also slipped. Baltimore’s sack rate allowed sits near the bottom of the league, which makes long-yardage downs dangerous.
Los Angeles leans on a top-tier explosive pass game. The Rams rank near the top in both deep-shot rate and explosive pass rate. That lines up with a Baltimore defense that has allowed a high rate of explosive completions. If the Ravens’ banged-up corners are active and close to full strength, that gap narrows. If not, Matthew Stafford has matchups he can hunt.
The run game is the counterpunch. Baltimore can pop chunk runs, but the Rams have limited explosive rushes and have been tough near the goal line. That battle decides whether the Ravens stay on schedule and keep third downs manageable.
Current Season Form
BAL
AwayLAR
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | vs HOU | L 10-44 | L -2.5 | o41.5 |
| 2025-09-28 | @ KC | L 20-37 | L -2.5 | o48.5 |
| 2025-09-22 | vs DET | L 30-38 | L 4.5 | o53.5 |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CLE | W 41-17 | W +12.5 | o46.5 |
| 2025-09-07 | @ BUF | L 40-41 | W +-1.5 | o50.5 |
| 2025-01-19 | @ BUF | L 25-27 | L -1.5 | o51.5 |
| 2025-01-11 | vs PIT | W 28-14 | W +9.5 | u44.5 |
| 2025-01-04 | vs CLE | W 35-10 | W +19.5 | o42.5 |
| 2024-12-25 | @ HOU | W 31-2 | W +-5.5 | u46.5 |
| 2024-12-21 | vs PIT | W 34-17 | W +7.0 | o44.5 |
Key Insights
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Explosive pass mismatch: Rams Explosive Pass Rate 11.6% (97th percentile) vs Ravens Explosive Passes Allowed 8.8% (12th).
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Protection pressure on Baltimore: Ravens Sack Rate Allowed 10.4% (3rd), a problem if Lamar is limited.
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Run strength vs strength: Ravens Explosive Run Rate 6.8% (95th) meets Rams Explosive Runs Allowed 2.1% (88th).
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Rams situational defense helps: Third-down stop rate 65.2% (81st) can get Stafford extra possessions.
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Big-play efficiency with a caveat: Ravens Big-Play TD Rate 45.5% is sky-high but from a small sample (22 plays).
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Fourth-down note: Baltimore shows high aggression this year, but that is a tiny sample (1 try) and could regress with a backup QB.
Betting Insights
Spread: Rams -7.0 (-114) vs Ravens +7.0 (-109). Off the key number can swing on late drives.
Total: 45.5 with Over +106 / Under -127. The juice leans Under.
Moneyline: Rams -385, Ravens +300. Heavy favorite pricing reflects QB uncertainty.
Stafford passing: 261.5 yards — Over -119 / Under -120. Matchup favors explosives if BAL secondary isn’t healthy.
Receiver markets: Puka Nacua 98.5 — Over -119 / Under -120; Davante Adams 62.5 — Over -118 / Under -122 (volatility if inactive).
Rushing markets: Derrick Henry 67.5 — Under -119 / Over -120 fits Rams’ run-explosive prevention.
First-half total check: 22.5 — Over -118 / Under -120 if you expect early script to favor Rams’ passing.
Final Summary
Los Angeles brings a clean path: protect Stafford and attack vertically. The Rams’ explosive pass profile matches a Baltimore defense that has given up chunk plays. If Davante Adams suits up, target share tilts to two alpha receivers and stresses man coverage.
Baltimore’s best path is early down rushing and quick game. Chunk runs would keep them out of third and long, where their high sack rate allowed becomes a problem. Lamar Jackson’s status is the swing factor. A healthy Lamar raises the Ravens’ floor and their third-down conversion odds. A limited Lamar, or a backup, lowers both.
The board sits at Rams -7.0 and 45.5. That points to Rams control with some scoring ceiling, but injuries can flip this fast. Manage exposure, price shop the juice, and match your prop choices to the inactives list when it drops.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 123 | #13 | 177 | #1 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 24.6 | #15 | 35.4 | #32 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 14 | #12 | 21 | #32 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 11 | #2 | 13 | #32 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 3 | #23 | 8 | #31 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 0 | #18 | 0 | #14 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 39 | #14 | 51 | #2 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 0 | #24 | 0 | #17 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 12 | #13 | 18 | #2 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 1448 | #2 | 1313 | #2 | 🏈 |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 290 | #2 | 263 | #2 | 🏈 |
| Passer Rating | 107 | #7 | 110 | #4 | |
| Passing Attempts | 184 | #4 | 190 | #29 | |
| Completions | 122 | #3 | 131 | #2 | |
| Completion Percentage | 66.3 | #15 | 68.9 | #24 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 68 | #3 | 69 | #31 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 60.2 | #3 | 57.0 | #18 | |
| Longest Pass | 88 | #1 | 51 | #18 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 1 | #23 | 1 | #17 | |
| Receiving Targets | 179 | #4 | 178 | #5 | |
| Receptions | 122 | #3 | 131 | #31 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 532 | #16 | 548 | #20 | |
| YAC Average | 4.4 | #27 | 4.2 | #6 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 561 | #19 | 732 | #30 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 112 | #21 | 146 | #4 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 123 | #22 | 156 | #31 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4.6 | #12 | 4.7 | #9 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 34 | #11 | 44 | #31 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 2 | #24 | 6 | #3 | |
| Long Rushing | 45 | #12 | 72 | #1 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 2 | #24 | 6 | #3 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 2 | #6 | 0 | #22 | |
Game Preview of Los Angeles Rams @ Baltimore Ravens. Week 6 of 2025 NFL Season
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