NFLGame PreviewsLAR VS BAL Preview Week6 12-Oct-2025

Game Preview of Los Angeles Rams @ Baltimore Ravens. Week 6 of 2025 NFL Season

LAR logo

LAR

3-2-0
@
12OCT25
01:00pm
BAL logo

BAL

1-4-0
M&T Bank Stadium

Game Preview

The Rams visit the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. The market shows Los Angeles as a full touchdown favorite with a total in the mid-40s. That tells us books expect Rams control and steady scoring.

 

Quarterback health hangs over Baltimore. Lamar Jackson is listed as Questionable. If he is limited or sits, the Ravens lose escapability and explosive pass juice. Protection has also slipped. Baltimore’s sack rate allowed sits near the bottom of the league, which makes long-yardage downs dangerous.

 

Los Angeles leans on a top-tier explosive pass game. The Rams rank near the top in both deep-shot rate and explosive pass rate. That lines up with a Baltimore defense that has allowed a high rate of explosive completions. If the Ravens’ banged-up corners are active and close to full strength, that gap narrows. If not, Matthew Stafford has matchups he can hunt.

 

The run game is the counterpunch. Baltimore can pop chunk runs, but the Rams have limited explosive rushes and have been tough near the goal line. That battle decides whether the Ravens stay on schedule and keep third downs manageable.

Current Season Form

LAR logo

LAR

Away
Record:3-2-0
ATS:3-2-0
O/U:3-2-0
BAL logo

BAL

Home
Record:1-4-0
ATS:1-4-0
O/U:5-0-0

Head-to-Head Summary

Record:
1-4Winner logo
ATS:1-3-1
O/U:3-2-0

Past Results

DateOpponentResultATSO/U
2025-10-05vs HOUL 10-44L -2.5o41.5
2025-09-28@ KCL 20-37L -2.5o48.5
2025-09-22vs DETL 30-38L 4.5o53.5
2025-09-14vs CLEW 41-17W +12.5o46.5
2025-09-07@ BUFL 40-41W +-1.5o50.5
2025-01-19@ BUFL 25-27L -1.5o51.5
2025-01-11vs PITW 28-14W +9.5u44.5
2025-01-04vs CLEW 35-10W +19.5o42.5
2024-12-25@ HOUW 31-2W +-5.5u46.5
2024-12-21vs PITW 34-17W +7.0o44.5

Key Insights

 

  • Explosive pass mismatch: Rams Explosive Pass Rate 11.6% (97th percentile) vs Ravens Explosive Passes Allowed 8.8% (12th).

  • Protection pressure on Baltimore: Ravens Sack Rate Allowed 10.4% (3rd), a problem if Lamar is limited.

  • Run strength vs strength: Ravens Explosive Run Rate 6.8% (95th) meets Rams Explosive Runs Allowed 2.1% (88th).

  • Rams situational defense helps: Third-down stop rate 65.2% (81st) can get Stafford extra possessions.

  • Big-play efficiency with a caveat: Ravens Big-Play TD Rate 45.5% is sky-high but from a small sample (22 plays).

  • Fourth-down note: Baltimore shows high aggression this year, but that is a tiny sample (1 try) and could regress with a backup QB.

 

Betting Insights

  • Spread: Rams -7.0 (-114) vs Ravens +7.0 (-109). Off the key number can swing on late drives.

  • Total: 45.5 with Over +106 / Under -127. The juice leans Under.

  • Moneyline: Rams -385, Ravens +300. Heavy favorite pricing reflects QB uncertainty.

  • Stafford passing: 261.5 yards — Over -119 / Under -120. Matchup favors explosives if BAL secondary isn’t healthy.

  • Receiver markets: Puka Nacua 98.5 — Over -119 / Under -120; Davante Adams 62.5 — Over -118 / Under -122 (volatility if inactive).

  • Rushing markets: Derrick Henry 67.5 — Under -119 / Over -120 fits Rams’ run-explosive prevention.

  • First-half total check: 22.5 — Over -118 / Under -120 if you expect early script to favor Rams’ passing.

All prices include juice. Player markets carry extra variance with several starters listed Questionable. Re-check inactives 90 minutes before kickoff.

Final Summary

Los Angeles brings a clean path: protect Stafford and attack vertically. The Rams’ explosive pass profile matches a Baltimore defense that has given up chunk plays. If Davante Adams suits up, target share tilts to two alpha receivers and stresses man coverage.

Baltimore’s best path is early down rushing and quick game. Chunk runs would keep them out of third and long, where their high sack rate allowed becomes a problem. Lamar Jackson’s status is the swing factor. A healthy Lamar raises the Ravens’ floor and their third-down conversion odds. A limited Lamar, or a backup, lowers both.

The board sits at Rams -7.0 and 45.5. That points to Rams control with some scoring ceiling, but injuries can flip this fast. Manage exposure, price shop the juice, and match your prop choices to the inactives list when it drops.

Statistical Battle Boards

Viewing: BAL Offense vs LAR Defense
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Total Points141#6107#17BAL advantage
Total Points Per Game28.2#621.4#13BAL advantage
Total Touchdowns17#510#11BAL advantage
Passing Touchdowns10#67#14BAL advantage
Rushing Touchdowns6#122#1LAR advantage
Other Touchdowns1#121#21BAL advantage
Total Kicking Points39#1347#4LAR advantage
Total Two Point Conversions0#210#30BAL advantage
Kick Extra Points15#58#26BAL advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Net Passing Yards981#191077#14LAR advantage
Net Passing Yards Per Game196#22215#15LAR advantage
Passer Rating109#492.4#16BAL advantage
Passing Attempts129#30174#23LAR advantage
Completions91#26116#9LAR advantage
Completion Percentage70.5#666.7#16BAL advantage
Passing 1st downs49#2156#18LAR advantage
Passing 1st Down %58.3#1056.6#15BAL advantage
Longest Pass56#1575#6LAR advantage
Passing Fumbles Lost1#244#2LAR advantage
Receiving Targets125#30168#9LAR advantage
Receptions91#26116#24LAR advantage
Receiving Yards After Catch460#24522#17LAR advantage
YAC Average5.1#144.5#8LAR advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Rushing Yards578#16468#11LAR advantage
Rushing Yards Per Game116#1793.6#23BAL advantage
Rushing Attempts105#29134#23LAR advantage
Yards Per Rush Attempt5.5#23.5#29BAL advantage
Rushing 1st downs27#2433#19LAR advantage
20+ Yard Rushing Plays5#40#32BAL advantage
Long Rushing71#318#32BAL advantage
Rushing Fumbles5#40#32BAL advantage
Rushing Fumbles Lost2#70#23BAL advantage