• Explosive pass mismatch: Rams Explosive Pass Rate 11.6% (97th percentile) vs Ravens Explosive Passes Allowed 8.8% (12th).

• Protection pressure on Baltimore: Ravens Sack Rate Allowed 10.4% (3rd), a problem if Lamar is limited.

• Run strength vs strength: Ravens Explosive Run Rate 6.8% (95th) meets Rams Explosive Runs Allowed 2.1% (88th).

• Rams situational defense helps: Third-down stop rate 65.2% (81st) can get Stafford extra possessions.

• Big-play efficiency with a caveat: Ravens Big-Play TD Rate 45.5% is sky-high but from a small sample (22 plays).

• Fourth-down note: Baltimore shows high aggression this year, but that is a tiny sample (1 try) and could regress with a backup QB.

• Spread: Rams -7.0 (-114) vs Ravens +7.0 (-109). Off the key number can swing on late drives.

• Total: 45.5 with Over +106 / Under -127. The juice leans Under.

• Moneyline: Rams -385, Ravens +300. Heavy favorite pricing reflects QB uncertainty.

• Stafford passing: 261.5 yards — Over -119 / Under -120. Matchup favors explosives if BAL secondary isn’t healthy.

• Receiver markets: Puka Nacua 98.5 — Over -119 / Under -120; Davante Adams 62.5 — Over -118 / Under -122 (volatility if inactive).

• Rushing markets: Derrick Henry 67.5 — Under -119 / Over -120 fits Rams’ run-explosive prevention.

• First-half total check: 22.5 — Over -118 / Under -120 if you expect early script to favor Rams’ passing.

All prices include juice. Player markets carry extra variance with several starters listed Questionable. Re-check inactives 90 minutes before kickoff.

Los Angeles brings a clean path: protect Stafford and attack vertically. The Rams’ explosive pass profile matches a Baltimore defense that has given up chunk plays. If Davante Adams suits up, target share tilts to two alpha receivers and stresses man coverage.

Baltimore’s best path is early down rushing and quick game. Chunk runs would keep them out of third and long, where their high sack rate allowed becomes a problem. Lamar Jackson’s status is the swing factor. A healthy Lamar raises the Ravens’ floor and their third-down conversion odds. A limited Lamar, or a backup, lowers both.

The board sits at Rams -7.0 and 45.5. That points to Rams control with some scoring ceiling, but injuries can flip this fast. Manage exposure, price shop the juice, and match your prop choices to the inactives list when it drops.