• Miami ground attack vs Carolina front: Dolphins lead with a 7.2% explosive run rate (94th pct). Panthers rank just 27th at stopping big runs.

• Third-down split: Miami converts at a 51.1% clip (97th pct), while Carolina’s defence stops 62.8% (59th). Drive-sustaining plays may decide the game.

• No Tyreek Hill factor: Without Hill, Miami’s explosive pass rate sits just 4.8% (14th pct). Deep-pass threat is gone.

• Carolina OL injuries: With multiple guards and the centre out, Bryce Young’s protection could crack even against Miami’s average 6.1% sack rate generated.

• Red-zone efficiency: Dolphins score TDs on 80% of red-zone trips (97th pct). Panthers aren’t far behind at 70% (86th).

• Defensive holes: Miami allows 9.6% explosive runs (worst percentile) and haven’t generated turnovers at a high rate.

• Spread: Dolphins -2.5 (-106). Market leans Miami despite Hill’s absence.

• Total: 45.0 (Over -110, Under -123). Juice shaded to the Under.

• Moneyline (90 mins): Dolphins -114, Panthers -101. Effectively a toss-up.

• Team totals: Dolphins 22.5 (O -122, U -116). Panthers 21.5 (O -120, U -119).

• Prop markets:

  • Jaylen Waddle over 60.5 yards (-120). He’s now the clear WR1.

  • De’Von Achane over 67.5 rush yards (-122). Explosive-run matchup if active.

  • Darren Waller anytime TD (+275). Strong red-zone role, but monitor Q tag.

  • Bryce Young under 212.5 yards (-118). Below 200 in 3 of 4 games.

  • Malik Washington over 31.5 yards (-122). Could benefit from Miami’s shaky coverage.

This game comes down to how well Miami adjust without Tyreek Hill and whether Carolina can protect Bryce Young behind a patched-up line. The Dolphins’ ground game has been explosive, and Achane offers a strong matchup against Carolina’s soft run defence if he suits up.

The Panthers’ best path is limiting Miami’s red-zone efficiency and leaning on quick passes to Malik Washington or Tetairoa McMillan. But if Hubbard is limited, their ground game could stall.

At Dolphins -2.5, the line suggests a close contest. Both teams are flawed, but Miami’s ability to run and finish drives gives them the edge. The total at 45.0 reflects shaky defences, though heavy juice to the Under points to risk of stalled drives.

Expect a scrappy, low-margin game where coaching pressure and injuries loom large. Miami have more ways to win if their running backs stay healthy, while Carolina need Bryce Young to finally break out.