• Vikings ground edge: Minnesota ranks in the 94th percentile for explosive runs. Pittsburgh sits near the bottom at stopping long runs. An explosive play is a rush of 10+ yards or a pass of 15+ yards.

• Pass rush vs timing: The Vikings generate sacks on 10.0% of pass plays (94th percentile). That can compress Pittsburgh’s downfield timing and push them to quicker reads.

• Steelers scheme shots: Pittsburgh’s scheme-based explosive pass rate is elite (97th percentile). With S Harrison Smith Out for Minnesota, the Steelers can stress space with design, not just talent.

• Money downs: Minnesota struggles on third down offense (32.4%, 12th percentile), while Pittsburgh’s third-down defense is also a weakness (53.7% stop rate, 17th). This tug-of-war may decide pace.

• Red zone contrast: Pittsburgh converts in the red zone at 87.5% (97th percentile; small sample). Minnesota’s defense is mid-pack on red zone TDs allowed.

• Sample sizes: Early-season red-zone and “quick strike” metrics carry small samples. Expect volatility near the goal line.

• Anchor spread: Vikings -3.5 (+108). Plus money on the favorite adds payout but increases push risk past the field-goal number.

• Anchor total: 41.5 (Over -110, Under -125). Market leans Under, which fits a run-forward MIN script and both teams’ third-down wobbles.

• Moneyline: Vikings -154 / Steelers +110. Prices imply a modest edge to Minnesota on a neutral field.

• Team totals: Vikings 21.0 (Over -116, Under -122). Steelers 19.5 (Over -122, Under -116). The split hints at a tight, medium-low scoring range.

• Jordan Mason over 82.5 rush (-118): MIN explosive run rate 8.2% meets PIT’s 9.6% explosive runs allowed.

• Carson Wentz under 214.5 pass (-120): If Minnesota leans into its run edge, attempts and yards can slide.

• Aaron Rodgers under 211.5 pass (-119): MIN converts pressure to sacks at 10.0%, which can cap per-drive yardage.

• T.J. Hockenson over 35.5 rec (-122): Quick-game usage fits with Darrisaw Out and a need to stay ahead of the chains.

• Pat Freiermuth over 19.5 rec (-123): Pittsburgh can use short-middle answers against Minnesota’s rush and strong third-down stop rate.

  Volatility note: Props tied to players listed Questionable, like Justin Jefferson or Calvin Austin III, carry extra risk. Check final status.

Ireland gets a physical game. Minnesota’s edge is on the ground and with its pass rush. Those two areas can set the tone if the Vikings avoid long-yardage downs.

Pittsburgh’s path is structure and finish. The Steelers create explosives with design and score well in the red zone. If protection holds and the quick game lands, they can keep pace.

Injuries create swing factors. Darrisaw is Out, which could affect Minnesota’s pass plan. Pittsburgh’s defense has multiple Questionable tags that could change coverage matchups late.

The market sees a close, lower-total game on a neutral field. Prices reflect that. Respect the juice, respect the variance, and watch the inactives before you fire.